The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant Megathread

[Crazy_Ivan80]

It appears Turkey has arrested hundreds of Kurds from Kobani who tried to cross the border. Might be PKK.

IS definately likes their Turkish allies

[KRonn]

As others are pointing out, Turkey seems to be playing a tricky and dangerous game. By not intervening to save thousand of Kurds in Turkey they may feel that the loss of the city hurts the Kurds and takes more land, lessening the Kurdish area and hopes for a separate Kurdish state. But then by not intervening the Turkish govt will likely anger the Kurds all the more and make them more hostile to the Turkish govt.

I saw those tanks at the border being discussed by a journalist who was there. She said the tank guns were pointed into Turkey, not at Syria and ISIL. The US govt. has been leaning heavily on Turkey to intervene. They've joined in the coalition against ISIL so what better time than now to at least fire some artillery in support of Khobani, and send in some resupplies of ammo and other supplies, medical supplies. I doubt if Assad would mind much at all if ISIL were taking more hits, even within Syrian territory, which he doesn't control anymore anyways.

[Barrister]

It's a double secret crisis.

[The Minsky Moment]

At risk of piling on, the Turkish policy is really shortsighted.  If the PKK wants to send their fighters to get killed battling ISIS in Syria, why would it benefit Turkey to stop that?  Yes there will be dubious armed men crossing in remote areas in the east but that is probably already happening anyway (or will soon).

The bigger picture is that for the US, beating ISIS is the priority.  One could credibly argue that it shouldn't be, but if for no other reason than domestic politics, it can't be any other way.  Given that Obama's policy is based on two basic givens: (1) beat ISIS, (2) don't use US ground troops/rely on regional allies.

The problem is - who can fill #2?  The Kurds are willing to fight, but don't have the capability to take on ISIS alone, especially with their fighters strewn across 4 national boundaries.  The Iraqi Shi'a in the very best scenario cannot be counted on to do much more than not lose more significant ground.  And that's it.  The Syrian Sunni groups may not care for ISIS but their priority is Assad and other than Nusra their capabilities are very limited anyways.

So is US policy is to work within the current diplomatic alignment, Turkey will have contribute significantly to the fight, including at a minimum lifting all restrictions on US/NATO use of Turkish bases and allowing supply and support of Kurdish forces combating ISIS.

If not - then there is only one viable alternative.  Because there are forces in the region that have the power and potential interest to take the fight to ISIS.  And that is Assad and Iran and Iran's proxy forces in Syria and Lebanon.  Right now the US is maintaining the fig leaf of official condemnation of Assad and support for the "good" Sunni rebel factions, but if that policy fails to achieve results - and most likely it will fail - what happens next?

From a pure power politics geopolitical world view, a US "diplomatic revolution" in the region - shifting US support from the Saudi led Sunni factions to Shi'a-Kurdish alignment consisting of Iran, Shi'a Iraq, the Kurds, and Assad is quite appealing.  It would require Rouhani triumphing in the internal fight in Iran, but a "deal" where Iran compromises on nukes and helps take out ISIS and other AQ splinters in return for normalization/end of sanctions/hands off Syria has real value for both sides.

Such a shift, even if partial and gradual, would bad news for Turkey and its allies and the region.  The politics may render it unrealistic, but can Turkey really take that chance?

[Razgovory]

I think that the ISIS thing is a the perfect chance to make deals with the Iranians.  To bad nobody in Washington has the stomach for it.  Only Nixon could go to China, I have no idea who could go to Tehran.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/isis-in-kobani-turkeys-act-of-abandonment-may-mark-an-irrevocable-breach-with-kurds-across-the-region-9780941.html

[derspiess]

I think that the ISIS thing is a the perfect chance to make deals with the Iranians.  To bad nobody in Washington has the stomach for it.  Only Nixon could go to China, I have no idea who could go to Tehran.

Hillary.  With a reset button labeled in Farsi.

[grumbler]

JR, I think that you are right, and that the US is one Sunni terrorist act away from taking up the cause of the Shiites once again.  This time, as you note, the alliance would explicitly include Iran, rather than just implicitly including them, as before.I don't think that Turkey would be happy when the Shiite forces (mostly Kurd, but with Iranian advisers and perhaps heavy weapons) re-take the Kurdish territories in Syria near the Turkish border.  In effect, that would be Kurdistan.  How many well-trained-and-equipped PKK fighters would come out of that struggle? Dunno, but could be "lots."  The obvious next step would be taking the next bit of Kurdistan, that inside Turkey.

This might not be the likeliest outcome of the Turkish stab in the back, but it is the worst, and its plenty bad enough to be worth avoiding at considerable cost.

[grumbler]

I think that the ISIS thing is a the perfect chance to make deals with the Iranians.  To bad nobody in Washington has the stomach for it.  Only Nixon could go to China, I have no idea who could go to Tehran.

Hillary.  With a reset button labeled in Farsi.

McCain could do it, with a reset button labelled "2008."  Certainly no other Republican would dare.

[Legbiter]

Are the Turks letting IS kill off the Kurds in the town to afterwards roll in and clean up the mess? 

[Syt]

Part of me worries that Erdogan looks at IS and thinks, "I like the cut of their jib; they have the right ideas!"

[derspiess]

McCain could do it, with a reset button labelled "2008."  Certainly no other Republican would dare.

McCain's button would say "FIRE ALL NUKES" or something like that.

[The Minsky Moment]

Part of me worries that Erdogan looks at IS and thinks, "I like the cut of their jib; they have the right ideas!"

I don't think that.
I do think he sees them and thinks: "they are tying down the Kurds, they are causing problems for the Shia extremists in Iraq, they are against Assad, they are giving the Americans headaches.". And that all seems pretty good to him.  And maybe it is from that perspective but as I said - short-sighted.

[mongers]

Are the Turks letting IS kill off the Kurds in the town to afterwards roll in and clean up the mess? 

Possibly, I think Erdogan is trying to play a cleverer game than he's capable of.

[Viking]

Part of me worries that Erdogan looks at IS and thinks, "I like the cut of their jib; they have the right ideas!"

I don't think that.
I do think he sees them and thinks: "they are tying down the Kurds, they are causing problems for the Shia extremists in Iraq, they are against Assad, they are giving the Americans headaches.". And that all seems pretty good to him.  And maybe it is from that perspective but as I said - short-sighted.

Erdogan probably thinks the same thing when he looks at ISIS that Jerry Falwell thought when he looked at Fred Phelps.