The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant Megathread

[Viking]

While the idea of splitting Iraq into thirds may seem sexy...it would likely just end up as three states at near perpetual war with each other.

All the governments in the are in near perpetual state of war with each other.

[Sheilbh]

While the idea of splitting Iraq into thirds may seem sexy...it would likely just end up as three states at near perpetual war with each other.

Syria too. But there's no splitting about it. I don't think anyone wants us to be that actively involved again. Though I would say there is a mighty hypocrisy in the West insisting on the inviolability of Iraq as a state while we've always insisted the Kurds get to keep their own embassies and military.

As I see it, as with Syria, there's no good answer. I think if this continues and Iraq (and Syria) does split it poses big risks for Jordan. I also agree with Landis. Honestly I think there'll be sectarian cleansing whatever happens - if Iraq collapses then people will be made to fit the new sectarian borders and if it doesn't I think there's still a strong chances Sunni/Shia will be forced out as a potential fifth column (with the perverse possibility that one side would have Western air support during it).

Incidentally Nasrallah's spoken. He said Hezbollah are willing to sacrifice 'five times as many martyrs' for Iraq as they have for Syria.

"Gone are the times when it was allowed to destroy and desecrate our religious shrines in Najaf, Karbala and Samarra.

"How will we face Imam al-Mahdi if the Samarra shrines were harmed?" he asked.
...
"We are living today the era of the coming of Imam Mahdi," he said.

[KRonn]

I didn't think anyone could fuck up the Middle East more than Sykes and Picot.

Then I saw Paul Bremer giving his opinion on what we need to do in Iraq.

Bremer, the guy who disbanded the Iraqi military which probably caused the most problems by putting tens of thousands of soldiers and officers out of jobs, where they could have played a part in stabilizing Iraq and preventing some of the sectarian violence. Instead, many joined the insurgencies during the US occupation, and are likely part of the Sunni uprising now.  And of course Bremer had to have the support of the Bush admin in that idea.

[Sheilbh]

Sistani's called for a new government. Maybe there's hope.

[Tamas]

Sistani's called for a new government. Maybe there's hope.

In what form? ISIS will stop once they learn there are two more Sunnis In Suits in the new government?

[Admiral Yi]

In what form? ISIS will stop once they learn there are two more Sunnis In Suits in the new government?

Their tribal/Baathist support could dry up.  Like  it  did around Teh Surge.

[Sheilbh]

Sistani's called for a new government. Maybe there's hope.

In what form? ISIS will stop once they learn there are two more Sunnis In Suits in the new government?

The Sunnis have legitimate grievances. I'm not sure they will be addressed but there's no chance with Maliki in charge. The only hope for Iraq is to genuinely bring all the groups in. Though that may mean less help from Iran/problems with the Shia militias.

Then what Yi said. I've always thought the Awakening mattered more than the surge and I think a similar process could help again.

[Valmy]

Which of the Iraqi parties is not in favor of the brutal purging of all the non-Muslims?

[Viking]

Sistani's called for a new government. Maybe there's hope.

In what form? ISIS will stop once they learn there are two more Sunnis In Suits in the new government?

The Sunnis have legitimate grievances. I'm not sure they will be addressed but there's no chance with Maliki in charge. The only hope for Iraq is to genuinely bring all the groups in. Though that may mean less help from Iran/problems with the Shia militias.

Then what Yi said. I've always thought the Awakening mattered more than the surge and I think a similar process could help again.

Yes, but this being the arab world, those grievances will only be given perfunctory attention for the duration of the crisis. As soon as the crisis passes status quo ante-bellum returns. The inviolability of contracts and deals is one of those western things that makes us infinitely better than ROTW.

[Sheilbh]

Unless Newt is a dark horse to become Iraqi PM, I'm not sure I see the connection between political process and contract law.

[grumbler]

Unless Newt is a dark horse to become Iraqi PM, I'm not sure I see the connection between political process and contract law.

I don't think he was talking contract law.  The argument he was clearly making is that deals and contracts are not worth anything in the Middle East, and so  promises made to stop today's fighting will be ignored tomorrow.

Note that I do not believe this myself; I am merely pointing out that your straw dog won't hunt.

[Legbiter]

The internal logic of Iraq seems to be that of gnawing itself down to the gristle, severed heads on utility poles. Arab politics are certainly exciting.

Except for the Kurds it seems.

[Sheilbh]

Sure but that stems, in our tradition, from the common law and the rule of law which I totally agree in praising.

But political deals and compromises are disposable everywhere. That's why a contract's not really an analogy for a political process. What's needed is political will to reach a lasting compromise and that may not exist, but that's not because of a lack of contract and I'm not convinced Nick Clegg is more bound to his word because of it either.

Edit: Basically reliable banking and Machiavelli are contemporaries not opponents.

[Admiral Yi]

But political deals and compromises are disposable everywhere.

There is variability.

[Sheilbh]

Definitely. But I'd say that's normally based on strength of position (strong men) and need to build coalitions. See, say, much of Latin America or Italy.