Elections!

[Sheilbh]

European and local elections today.

Due to European law there's no exit polls for the EP vote until Sunday (presumably someone still has to vote), but the Dutch have a weird exception if they're verbal and not written

The Dutch result looks better than expected. Hard-left Socialists overtook the centre left. Wilders is down to third and the left-liberal D66 have won. Although it's amazing how fragmented the Dutch system is:


It looks like there could be record turnout in a Euro-poll in the UK maybe even reaching 40%, which probably means something. Also a few important local elections that'll give an idea of how things'll go next year. There's also hopes that Labour may be able to oust Islamist-linked extremely corrupt Mayor of Tower Hamlets, Lutfur Rahman, as turnout's higher there than last time but that result won't come out till tomorrow. Half the councils count the votes tonight, half start tomorrow.

Here's a list of important-ish results by the Guardian:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/22/uk-local-elections-11-results-to-watch

According to the Bagehot it'll be a good night for Labour and UKIP if they win 300 and 150 councillors respectively and for the Lib Dems and Tories if they lose fewer than 200 and 150. The Greens are also hoping for a breakthrough.

[Valmy]

It looks like there could be record turnout in a Euro-poll in the UK maybe even reaching 40%, which probably means something.

It means the British people are rallying to the glorious EU standard?

[Sheilbh]

It means the British people are rallying to the glorious EU standard?

Labour think it's good for them. So, maybe?

My guess would be more postal ballots and elderly people (especially as the weather wasn't great today) which would probably help UKIP.

[mongers]

I voted; interesting ballot paper, major parties then UKIP, then Greens and the rest of the 2ft paper was extreme/splinter anti-Europe/racist parties. 

No socialist option.   

[Liep]

We don't vote until Sunday. The Danish version of Wilders/UKIP, Danish People's Party, is going to be the biggest party by a good margin according to polls.

[Maladict]

We don't vote until Sunday. The Danish version of Wilders/UKIP, Danish People's Party, is going to be the biggest party by a good margin according to polls.

Polls also claimed Wilders would become the biggest party.

[Liep]

That is comforting, but did your opposition leader shoot himself in the foot a few days before the election as well? And is your PM generally hated throughout the populace?

[Sheilbh]

We don't vote until Sunday. The Danish version of Wilders/UKIP, Danish People's Party, is going to be the biggest party by a good margin according to polls.

Polls say the same about UKIP and FN, and on the far-left SYRIZA. We'll see.

[Liep]

It is entirely possible that the ones saying they'll vote anti-EU far-right isn't really that interested in the EU at all and are just not going to vote.

[Valmy]

Why does everybody vote for the most insane parties to the EU parliament?  Does the EU Parliament not have any actual power or something?

[The Brain]

No, Monoliu.

[Liep]

Why does everybody vote for the most insane parties to the EU parliament?  Does the EU Parliament not have any actual power or something?

The insane parties usually want less power to the EU, which is ironic because they end up with no influence in the EU and thereby giving more influence per vote away to the pro-EU parties.

[Sheilbh]

Why does everybody vote for the most insane parties to the EU parliament?  Does the EU Parliament not have any actual power or something?

Its powers have increased precisely as turnout's fallen and fringe parties have risen.

I don't know why. Arguably part of it - from the eurosceptic view - is that increasingly power is Europeanm which will increase wildly as the Eurozone integrates more rapidly, so the mainstream parties aren't able to make credible promises any more. The difference between PS government and UMP is the type of austerity not the overall policy, similarly there's very little difference between Tory and Labour on immigration because a lot of it's from the EU so there's not really much they can do. So the whole 'there's no difference between them' dynamic causes people to go to the extremes.

Also in most countries both main parties have been discredited. Labour had the crash, the Tories and the Lib Dems have had the subsequent recessions. Sarko had the crash, Hollande and Valls are still passing the austerity. Same with Berlusconi, Monti, Renzi and Letta; or PASOK and ND; or Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. Even in Germany I think it's worrying that the FDP have sunk and the left has split and I think Grand Coalition could cause problems for the SPD because the Left are now the official opposition. So again the mainstream's unusually weak.

My own view - and I don't know why - is that we're all moving towards a Dutch or a Czech system of extremely fractured and fractious politics. UKIPs got a lot of press but the rise of populist parties and extremists seems a European trend that's been developing for about 20 years.

The insane parties usually want less power to the EU, which is ironic because they end up with no influence in the EU and thereby giving more influence per vote away to the pro-EU parties.

Farage has pointed out that the Eurosceptic left (Greens, various Socialists and Communists) and Eurosceptic right (UKIP, FN etc) could have enough votes in the Parliament for a blocking minority. Especially if they can occasionally get the votes of the reformist right (Tories etc).

[Sheilbh]

First results so I've always wondered, Tyr, do you know why Sunderland is always the first to report? Is it like a badge of local pride or something?

Even when they cut to Sunderland South during a general election there's always council workers running with the ballot boxes to get counting

Those two first results are very good for UKIP and seems to tally with the theory that they could do well in traditional Labour areas of the North. Safe Labour areas of Sunderland - LAB - 47.8% UKIP - 30.1% CON - 14.3% GRN - 4.8% LDEM - 3.1% and no percentages but in St. Anne's 1022 votes for Labour, UKIP second with 702.

Edit: I just read an article. Apparently Sunderland use lighter ballot papers and rope in sixth formers to run in the boxes during a general election. All to count the quickest. Why?

[crazy canuck]

Why does everybody vote for the most insane parties to the EU parliament?  Does the EU Parliament not have any actual power or something?

Why do people vote Republican?