NCAA Football, 2014-2015

[katmai]

Your guys are 12th.

[Scipio]

The inaugural top-25 for the ESPN-SEC Invitational National Championship is out.

Suck it, 'Murica.

You can cheer for two scrappy teams, or you can cheer for FSU and Auburn.

[alfred russel]

  Marshall.

[alfred russel]

It gives me comfort that the people that count at least put Oregon ahead of Michigan State.

I feel like you can see the politics in the poll though. I think Georgia would be favored over the three teams ahead of it, but lol at people's reaction if they put 5 SEC teams in the top 8.

I'd rank it as:

1. FSU, even though they paid off the refs to get one win and have taken control of the local police to keep their guys eligible.
2. Mississippi State. Only because they are undefeated. This is Mississippi State. Never forget that. They will remember soon enough. Fuck the hype, they aren't that good. 2 losses minimum, they won't be in Atlanta, and they won't be in the playoff.
3. Alabama. They are really starting to click. They are the death star in the SEC. A weakness or two that can be exploited, but terrifying.
4. Oregon. Someone not from the SEC needs to be up here.
5. Ole Miss.
6. Georgia.
7. TCU.
8. Auburn.
9. Who the fuck knows.

[alfred russel]

The inaugural top-25 for the ESPN-SEC Invitational National Championship is out.

In a shocker, the SEC didn't have a team ranked higher than 3!!!!

From ESPN football expert Joe Schad:


image upload

[dps]

It gives me comfort that the people that count at least put Oregon ahead of Michigan State.

I feel like you can see the politics in the poll though. I think Georgia would be favored over the three teams ahead of it, but lol at people's reaction if they put 5 SEC teams in the top 8.

I'd rank it as:

1. FSU, even though they paid off the refs to get one win and have taken control of the local police to keep their guys eligible.
2. Mississippi State. Only because they are undefeated. This is Mississippi State. Never forget that. They will remember soon enough. Fuck the hype, they aren't that good. 2 losses minimum, they won't be in Atlanta, and they won't be in the playoff.
3. Alabama. They are really starting to click. They are the death star in the SEC. A weakness or two that can be exploited, but terrifying.
4. Oregon. Someone not from the SEC needs to be up here.
5. Ole Miss.
6. Georgia.
7. TCU.
8. Auburn.
9. Who the fuck knows.

None of the current ranking really mean a darned thing yet, though.  There's plenty of time for the SEC West teams to cannibalize each other.  That will shake up the rankings a lot--there won't be 3 teams from that division in the top 4, unless everybody else that has 1 loss now ends up with 2 losses (in which case, who know what the ranking will look like). 

I still tend to think that Alabama is the best team, and if they run the table, they will certainly be in the top 4.

[alfred russel]

None of the current ranking really mean a darned thing yet, though.  There's plenty of time for the SEC West teams to cannibalize each other.  That will shake up the rankings a lot--there won't be 3 teams from that division in the top 4, unless everybody else that has 1 loss now ends up with 2 losses (in which case, who know what the ranking will look like). 

I still tend to think that Alabama is the best team, and if they run the table, they will certainly be in the top 4.

They do show the mindset of the people that will make the decisions though. For example, they have clearly communicated that Marshall is fucked. We also get some perspective on how they view relative strengths of all the one loss teams out there.

[Rasputin]

The inaugural top-25 for the ESPN-SEC Invitational National Championship is out.

Suck it, 'Murica.

You can cheer for two scrappy teams, or you can cheer for FSU and Auburn.

easy

GO NOLES!

[Rasputin]

when does the egg bowl hype start?

[Eddie Teach]

When they get to that point without any more losses. 

[derspiess]

Marshall.

Their fans are livid.  First they're pissed that WVU fans are "rewarded for burning couches" by getting College Game Day in Morgantown (like there was ever a chance of it going to Huntington) and now their Herd gets shut out of the Playoff rankings.  They had all these wonderful Quixotic dreams of making the playoffs but now they've completely lost their shit.

Pretty damned entertaining.

[Eddie Teach]

I don't know if Marshall fans are really as obtuse as you say, but it's entertaining to think so. 

[derspiess]

Okay, small sample from one of the Herd fans that hasn't yet unfriended me on FB.

[derspiess]

And last night.

[sbr]

I mentioned Dave Bartoo a couple of weeks ago when I linked to his statistical analysis of injury rate vs. Pace of Play(PoP).  He does a lot of pretty deep statistical analysis of college football.  He started off making predictions; in the spring (March-ish) he would pick the winners of every game in the upcoming NCAA season based on 3 things: talent (his own convoluted recruiting rankings), coach effect (his own coach rankings), and where the game was played.  He usually hit at about a mid-70% to low-80% rate.  Since then he has become a bit of a national sports talk phenomenon and has moved on to analyzing all parts of college football.  USA Today has started printing his weekly offensive and defensive efficiency rankings.

He is a pretty interesting Twitter follow as well:  @cbfmatrix

Ugh, the formatting on this is horrible, even after some work by me.  Might be best to go to the site to read it if interested.

His thoughts on the CFP rankings from last night:

THOUGHTS ON THE 1ST PLAYOFF TOP 25
RANDOM THOUGHTS, ASSUMPTIONS, STATS AND IDEAS

Now that the show is over, and I am thankful for both it quick end but its delivered result.  While we have zero transparency, we have a top 25, some patterns and maybe some accountability.  From this top 25 I hope to find stats and metrics that appear to have a strong correlation with the rankings, and those that do not.  While we will never know what any one member is thinking, or how the committee uses some, if any stats, I can find stats and rankings that matter more than others.  They will not use some 'formula' so there should be a handful of rankings that make you scratch your head wondering how they came to that conclusion other that 'we just thought it was right'.

I will try to keep it simple, but loose in thought.  What comes to mind, at least safe for work comes to mind, I will make a note.  Feel free to comment, ask questions in comments or twitter or give an idea to investigate.

Both undefeated teams at the top.  Check one for the win them all and get into the playoffs as well as there are no good loses.

Auburn no. 3 with only loss on the road to no. 1 and a win in OOC on the road over top ten KState.  Strongest one loss team.  I'll buy it.

Ole Miss over Alabama.  Lesser stats in some areas, but OM has no. 1 scoring efficiency defense (get to know that term and stat) and a head to head win over Alabama.  Doesn't mean much as other head to head winners are ranked further back.  See Oregon over Arizona and TCU over Baylor.  Without explanation from the committee, which we will never fully get, I am assuming it is a very small tiebreaker.

SEC teams #3, #4 and #6.  Like its predecessor, the BCS, the SEC won most tie breakers on Strength of Conference ("SOC") not Strength of Schedule ("SOS"), although, they are very closely connected.
The SEC DOES NOT need to go to a 9th conference game and they are fine with their current non conference scheduling

First odd ranking.  Oregon lost at HOME to no. 12 Arizona, Alabama on the ROAD at no. 4 Ole Miss.  Alabama has a much stronger SOS across most every commonly known SOS models.  Two of  the biggest stat rankings in this top 25 have edges to Alabama over Oregon.

TCU at no. 7 with 6 wins, ahead of Michigan State with 7, a worse non-conference schedule and a road loss to a team ranked below Michigan State's only road loss.  Oh boy, the committee does not like the Big Ten. Even at 12-1, the Big Ten champion looks like they are going to need help.

0,0,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,2,2,2,1,1,2.  That is the loss pattern of the committee top 25.  That is a safe pattern and a BCS-like pattern.  This is what I expected given the committee has the same tools as college football had last year to evaluate and rank teams.  It is also much, much easier to anticipate future rankings, unless they scrap this one and rebuild it again.

TCU lost at Baylor and is ranked well enough ahead to make me feel head to head is a minor piece of the puzzle. Lots of bark, no bite. Committee might have been thinking TCU wins that on neutral or at home and 9 out of 10 they win that game as well in same 4th quarter starting score scenario.  That still puts head to head in the back seat.

Smart move putting TCU, Kansas State and Baylor near each other.  The round robin is still to come in the Big 12 so keeping them close allows the committee to hedge their bet on TCU being the Big 12 champion.

KState is undefeated in the big 12 and their only loss is to no. 3 Auburn.  TCU lost to a lower ranked Baylor team.  KState SOS ranking is better in every poll out there.  This is a vote for non-conference scheduling and SOS meaning very little, if anything to the Playoff Committee.

Notre Dame at no .10 with only a loss/penalty away from beating no. 2 on the road?  They have a top 25 SOS, which is higher than five of the nine team ranked ahead of them. They have very solid rankings in all the metrics that appear key in the Playoff Committee's process. Ranked behind one loss teams from PAC-12, SEC, Big Ten and Big 12?  Better start thinking about getting yourself into a conference Irish.  They need help.

Georgia has the worst loss of the top 11.  Pretty simple, but they are in the SOC favorite SEC.  Just win.  Very convenient that they rank the odds on favorite from the East below their favorites to win the other conferences.

Arizona, Arizona State, Nebraska, Ohio State and Utah, sans Baylor make up five of the bottom six one-loss teams.  There's Duke way down the list at 6-1 but that is another bullet.

I am surprised to see 5-2 Oklahoma leading the two-loss teams. They have a lower SOS ranking than LSU at 7-2 right below them. I can only fathom it was loses to TCU and KState that have them at 19.  More than anything, it is a move toward the Big 12 by the committee.

With the worst average National SOS ranking among Power 5 teams, Duke is at no. 23.  It's a nice gesture by the committee to acknowledge Duke's schedule but it is also a message to the ACC.  We don't think highly of your conference.

Louisville is the last two loss team into the top 25.  The other six have three from the Big Ten, two from the ACC and one from the SEC, Missouri.
Ranking the Teams by Conference: In the BCS, SOC was the important quality, not SOS.  It does make sense as we have so few head to head games, any SOS rank is highly variable.  The  SOC is much easier to use and understand.  Mississippi State over Florida State is an easy start.  SEC ranked over the ACC.  Let's look at the other groups.
One Loss Teams Average Rank by Conference:  SEC #6, Big 12 #9.6, PAC-12 #12, Big Ten #13, ACC #24.
Two Loss Teams Average Rank by Conference:  SEC #19, Big 12 #19, PAC-12 #22, ACC #23.3 and Big Ten all three unranked
The Big Ten and ACC need to get to 9 conference games

SOC: From those simple SOC numbers, it is clear to me that the Big Ten needs a ton of help to get into the playoffs.  The committee likes the Big 12 much more than the PAC-12. The Seminoles are the ACC's only hope, and if the the Noles lose, they are going to take a BIG Fall in the ranks. Oregon looks to be near the same boat as the only real hope for the PAC-12 right now. One thing is for sure, a two loss SEC gets the least damage and none of the other power 5 conference teams can afford a second loss.

SOS: Team SOS was not a factor in sorting out the rankings for the teams.  I am sure there will be a ton of ESPN employees telling you on the air, in articles and on twitter that SOS played a huge role.  Here are the SOS rankings from Sagarin, in order, from teams no. 5 through no. 25: 34, 3, 48, 63, 37, 36, 22, 49, 54, 30, 58, 60, 38, 11, 9, 13, 25, 12, 116, 66.  Not enough?  Here is no. 5 through no. 25 from Football Outsiders/FEI/F+: Every team ranked above Arizona at no. 12 has a worse SOS ranking.  23, 30, 60, 45, 24, 22, 53 ,5, 55 ,11 ,65 ,77 ,8, 56, 37, 49, 19, 6, 57, 27

Margin of Victory:  This is a HUGE metric.  22 of the top 25 in MOV heading into the first rankings are in the top 25.  The only exceptions are three teams from the ACC and Big Ten.  Based on the SOC averages, that is not a surprise.  Another message to the ACC and Big Ten.  Get better.  Now. That 9th conference game schedule is being forced upon the ACC today.  I don't think it will help until the Coastal improves dramatically.

Offense>Defense: The average total offense rank of the top 25 is no. 21.  The average defense rank is no. 27. Yes, it may be just a coincidence but to impress the committee, put up points and fireworks. Defense, in the end, will likely win the title

Total Scoring Efficiency:  I started publishing these rankings a few weeks ago, and last week you could find them in the USA Today (they will be there this week too).  Even if the committee didn't directly use them, 24 of their top 25 teams are in the top 30 of total scoring efficiency rankings.  (Click link)
The top ten teams are all in the top 19 of Margin of Victory and Scoring Efficiency

Turnover Margin:  18 of the top 25 teams are in the top 25 of turnover margin against Power 5 opponents.  All of them but West Virginia (no. 62) are in the top 35.  The average rank for the top 25 teams is 19.

Red Zone/3rd Downs, etc: No value here to the playoff committee.  I feel they are focusing on bigger picture stats.  Less than 70% of the top 25 teams are in the top 35 of 3rd down and red zone stats.  Too much minutia in these stats. About ready to just call off looking at detail stats like these and focus on 'big picture' stats.

Team Thoughts

FSU falls like a rock if they lose a game.  Committee does not like the ACC.  Expect them to drop sub top 10 if they lose.

Oregon and Arizona are the PAC-12's best hope.  The committee is not high on the PAC-12 and a two loss PAC -12 is very likely not in without a lot of help.

TCU, KState and Baylor.  One needs to win out.  TCU the favorite of the committee today but must survive the rest of the season.  No 10-2 team is in for the Big 12.

The Big Ten needs the most help.  The committee has them no. 5 out of five conferences. Michigan State, Ohio State or Nebraska needs to win out and they need to others ahead of them to get some loses.  12-1 Michigan State vs 11-1 TCU for the 4th spot?  Got to lean TCU right now.

Biggest piece of the puzzle is conference champions.  It feels like the committee is setting the chess pieces in this rankings for the future and not just today.  They left the door open for 1 loss conference champs to make the leap into the top four and the back up plan is SEC teams should any of the other four fail in getting a one loss champion.

I am not sure what to make of Notre Dame.  Yes, they need to win out first and foremost but being ranked behind all other power 5 conference leaders with one loss puts the Irish in a position of rooting for a ton of upsets to even get close. Could the message be: Go find a conference to join.