Ukraine's European Revolution?

[mongers]

Brothers in the East was Iormland's term.  And yeah, that was a different time.  We in the US were willing to risk lives stop Russian aggression.  We willing to fight over Berlin which was a lot further away from the US then it was Britain.  Lots of folks didn't think it was our fight to protect Western Europe then either.  Strictly speaking, it wasn't our fight.  It was defending allies who were very far away.  The US is still devoted to defending it's allies be it in Taiwan or South Korea or in Europe.  I get the feeling that our European allies are only willing to defend Western Europe.  So long as Russian aggression is confined to the East, it seems Western Europe doesn't give a fuck.

Quite frankly, if at any time in the 20 years or so before the Soviet Union fell apart, the Red Army had come streaming through Fulda Gay, I think most other European members of NATO would have declined to fight unless they themselveds were directly attacked.  I think the Brits would have been the only European members of NATO truly willing to honor their obligations.

I don't see that happening, I'd guess the Soviets would have been heading for the Rhine and even the Channel ports, which means the French would short order end up using tactical nukes on them.

You know they called it World War Three for a reason. 

[mongers]

the Red Army had come streaming through Fulda Gay

Paging Dr. Freud?

[Sheilbh]

Quite frankly, if at any time in the 20 years or so before the Soviet Union fell apart, the Red Army had come streaming through Fulda Gay, I think most other European members of NATO would have declined to fight unless they themselveds were directly attacked.  I think the Brits would have been the only European members of NATO truly willing to honor their obligations.

Well the French were out of NATO command by then. But their policy was always that they would nuke first if the Russians invaded Germany

I mean hell Chirac said France would use nuclear weapons in response to some terrorism.

[Agelastus]

The maps I look at show that the Baltics have a land border with Poland. I'm not sure where this trouble would come from.

There's like one road from Poland to the Baltics, all the Russians have to do is drive from Belarus into Lithuania via Vilnius and in total is something like a 80-100 drive to link up with territory in Kaliningrad.

Considering that NATO should have air superiority, I'd feel more comfortable making the trip to Lithuania via the one road from Poland rather than the larger borders with Russia.

Even having to bypass Vilnius its only 130 miles at most from the Belorussian border.

And they'd be advancing from both directions - Kaliningrad has something like 14000 ground troops and over a 1000 AFVs (allegedly.)

48 hours? Just how many NATO airstrikes could be made in those first 48 hours given where the bases are and the readiness and force levels of most European Nato members?

[Valmy]

Quite frankly, if at any time in the 20 years or so before the Soviet Union fell apart, the Red Army had come streaming through Fulda Gay, I think most other European members of NATO would have declined to fight unless they themselveds were directly attacked.  I think the Brits would have been the only European members of NATO truly willing to honor their obligations.

Nonsense.  Force de frappe was ready to fight for Europe.

[Valmy]

Even having to bypass Vilnius its only 130 miles at most from the Belorussian border.

And they'd be advancing from both directions - Kaliningrad has something like 14000 ground troops and over a 1000 AFVs (allegedly.)

48 hours? Just how many NATO airstrikes could be made in those first 48 hours given where the bases are and the readiness and force levels of most European Nato members?

Enough to destroy 1000 AFVs.  Geez blowing up shit like that is what we were built for.  The Pentagon would be ecstatic to finally fight the war they were trained and equipped to fight.

[Agelastus]

Even having to bypass Vilnius its only 130 miles at most from the Belorussian border.

And they'd be advancing from both directions - Kaliningrad has something like 14000 ground troops and over a 1000 AFVs (allegedly.)

48 hours? Just how many NATO airstrikes could be made in those first 48 hours given where the bases are and the readiness and force levels of most European Nato members?

Enough to destroy 1000 AFVs.  Geez blowing up shit like that is what we were built for.  The Pentagon would be ecstatic to finally fight the war they were trained and equipped to fight.

How many planes? How many sorties? How long a decision cycle to start the strikes? How long to break the Russian air defence? etc. etc. etc.

Not that this is anything but academic; Putin's not going to invade the Baltic States.

[alfred russel]

Even having to bypass Vilnius its only 130 miles at most from the Belorussian border.

And they'd be advancing from both directions - Kaliningrad has something like 14000 ground troops and over a 1000 AFVs (allegedly.)

48 hours? Just how many NATO airstrikes could be made in those first 48 hours given where the bases are and the readiness and force levels of most European Nato members?

Presumably the war wouldn't come out of no where.

[citizen k]

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/05/22/gruesome-scene-in-east-ukraine-as-pro-russian-attack-leaves-scorched-bodies-scattered-around-checkpoint/

[derspiess]

Quite frankly, if at any time in the 20 years or so before the Soviet Union fell apart, the Red Army had come streaming through Fulda Gay, I think most other European members of NATO would have declined to fight unless they themselveds were directly attacked.  I think the Brits would have been the only European members of NATO truly willing to honor their obligations.

I think NATO plans only called for NORTHAG & CENTAG to fight an invasion there, which did not include units from member nations far away.  So that's kind of a moot point. 

NORTHAG included troops from West Germany, UK, Netherlands, Belgium, France, and the US.  IIRC CENTAG was US & West Germany (possibly France at some point?).

[Razgovory]

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/05/22/gruesome-scene-in-east-ukraine-as-pro-russian-attack-leaves-scorched-bodies-scattered-around-checkpoint/

Looks like BMPs are still death traps.  Who'd of thought that storing fuel in the doors of the vehicle would have been a bad idea?

[derspiess]

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/05/22/gruesome-scene-in-east-ukraine-as-pro-russian-attack-leaves-scorched-bodies-scattered-around-checkpoint/

Looks like BMPs are still death traps.  Who'd of thought that storing fuel in the doors of the vehicle would have been a bad idea?

Also, couldn't the BTR-70 supposedly be taken out with a .50 cal burst?

[Razgovory]

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/05/22/gruesome-scene-in-east-ukraine-as-pro-russian-attack-leaves-scorched-bodies-scattered-around-checkpoint/

Looks like BMPs are still death traps.  Who'd of thought that storing fuel in the doors of the vehicle would have been a bad idea?

Also, couldn't the BTR-70 supposedly be taken out with a .50 cal burst?

I imagine it wasn't supposed to do that, but it very well might.  I was curious what the penetration of an M2 AP round was, and it looks like it could knock out a BTR 70 without much trouble.  I wonder what the ratio of Soviet IFVs killing people is to people being killed in them.  I sure as hell wouldn't want to ride in one.

[citizen k]

Ukraine rebels speak of heavy losses in battle against government troops:

http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-forces-fight-fierce-battle-eastern-separatists-070812533.html

http://news.yahoo.com/photos/ukrainian-army-officer-nadezhda-savchenko-33-speaks-journalists-photo-201333193.html;_ylt=AwrSyCNiq6NT1wkANyDRtDMD;_ylu=X3oDMTB1YjBkdWJiBHBvcwM2BHNlYwNpbWFnZQRjb2xvA2dxMQR2dGlkAw--

[Syt]

http://www.dw.de/putin-places-central-russia-forces-on-full-combat-alert/a-17726395

Putin places central Russia forces on 'full combat alert'

President Vladimir Putin has ordered troops in central Russia on "full combat alert," his defense minister says. The move comes a day after Moscow said it was strengthening security near the Ukrainian border.

Putin's order came on Saturday, a day after the Kremlin confirmed it was beefing up its military presence at the border with Ukraine.

"In accordance with his order, from 11 a.m. Moscow time (0700 GMT) the troops of the central military district as well as formations and military units located on its territory have been put on full combat alert," Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu was quoted as saying by Russian news agencies.

The status of elevated readiness for the central military district, which encompasses the Volga region and the Ural mountains, will last until next Saturday, Russian news agencies quoted Shoigu as saying.

Some 65,000 soldiers are expected to take part in military exercises that will accompany the full combat rating, according to Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia. Putin also ordered a drill of airborne troops. Several thousand troops stationed near Moscow are to be moved to the Ural mountains.

Fighting reported during ceasefire

Meanwhile, the AFP news agency reported that pro-Russia rebels continued to attack government troops in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, despite a unilateral ceasefire on the part of Ukraine's government. Three soldiers were said to have been wounded.

On Friday, Russian officials denied reports that the country was amassing troops close to the Ukrainian border, saying that it had only bolstered security.

The leaders of France, Germany and the United States agreed on Friday to impose additional sanctions against Russia if the Kremlin did not pull back its troops from Ukraine's border and try to convince separatists to lay down their arms.

Threat to Russia

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande, and US President Barack Obama consulted via telephone on Friday. They also welcomed Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko's 14-point peace plan and his decision to declare the ceasefire.

The leader of the separatist Luhansk People's Republic rejected the proposed pause in fighting, according to the Interfax-Ukraine news agency. Kremlin officials criticized the ceasefire, saying "this is not an invitation to peace and negotiations, but an ultimatum to militias in the southeast of Ukraine to lay down their arms."

On Friday, the US State Department accused Russia of readying tanks and artillery pieces for delivery to separatists in eastern Ukraine.

Green = Central Russian military district