Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Berkut]

If the Russians do this in the Baltics, or any other NATO country, it will have to be war.  Hopefully a short and limited one.  There is just no choice in the matter.

Of course there is a choice. We do nothing,and say "Damn, sorry about that. Sucks to be you."

I have a bad feeling a lot of Europe would like very much to do that.  If there is a stealth invasions of a Baltic state like the Russians did in Ukraine and NATO states are presented with a Russian fait accompli, I bet many would decide to bow out.  Putin would accomplish what the Soviet Union never could, the destruction of the NATO alliance.

In that case though, Putin would not have destroyed NATO, he would merely have dragged into the light the reality that NATO was dead from apathy already.

[Sheilbh]

Is Putinism more of a backslide than an evolution?

I don't think so. I can't think of regimes like his beforehand, maybe Singapore?

I love that definition of Putin's rule as a post-modern dictatorship. They've got elections, NGOs, privatisation, an independent media and even a critical one. But they're all sort-of fake and controlled by the centre in some way which isn't always direct or clear. So the effect is to tie everything closer to Putin. This isn't like old school police states or dictatorships but a sort of simulation of Western liberal, market democracy, a political hyperreality. I think that's genuinely new and, unlike say the Chinese system or even Singapore's, exportable to countries like Turkey and Hungary, arguably Venezuela under Chavez, and perhaps even further.

[mongers]

Is Putinism more of a backslide than an evolution?

I don't think so. I can't think of regimes like his beforehand, maybe Singapore?

I love that definition of Putin's rule as a post-modern dictatorship. They've got elections, NGOs, privatisation, an independent media and even a critical one. But they're all sort-of fake and controlled by the centre in some way which isn't always direct or clear. So the effect is to tie everything closer to Putin. This isn't like old school police states or dictatorships but a sort of simulation of Western liberal, market democracy, a political hyperreality. I think that's genuinely new and, unlike say the Chinese system or even Singapore's, exportable to countries like Turkey and Hungary, arguably Venezuela under Chavez, and perhaps even further.

We have that too. 

[Sheilbh]

In a way that's the danger. This is what the Occupy crowd and the Ron Paulites and various truthers already think we have and that's a growing opinion. If there's so much cynicism around about the system it's not very difficult for someone in authority to actually make the leap to having it.

[mongers]

In a way that's the danger. This is what the Occupy crowd and the Ron Paulites and various truthers already think we have and that's a growing opinion. If there's so much cynicism around about the system it's not very difficult for someone in authority to actually make the leap to having it.

Well yes that is silly, certainly tin-foil territory. *

But there's certainly a democratic deficit in that they and many others aren't engaged in the democratic process in any meaningful ways?

edit:
* I meant their grab-bag of superstitions, not you're analysis of it.

[alfred russel]

Berkut is completely wrong. With current defense levels, NATO has far more than enough defense spending and assets to deter a Russia with any modicum of rationality. We could dramatically cut defense spending further and that would still be the case.

Russia hasn't been deterred from intervening in Ukraine, but NATO never had any commitment to defend Russia, and I really can't think of a time in NATO's history that NATO would have intervened to stop Russian/Soviet intervention there.

[mongers]

Well if we can make it to the end of July, at least we'll be able to say we've managed a whole century that only encompassed just the two world wars. 

[alfred russel]

Some fact based posting about the "gutted" defense spending no longer able to contain Russia:

2013 Defense Expenditure:

USA: $640b
France: $61b
UK: $58b
Germany: $49b
Italy: $32.7b

Russia: $88b

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures

I just took the first estimate, all of them tell a similar story. When it comes to defense spending, the west buries Russia. Even supposedly effete and peacenik western europe buries Russia. Not to mention that if military spending is like most things in Russia, a lot of it is ineffective due to corruption.

[mongers]

Some fact based posting about the "gutted" defense spending no longer able to contain Russia:

2013 Defense Expenditure:

USA: $640b
France: $61b
UK: $58b
Germany: $49b
Italy: $32.7b

Russia: $88b

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures

I just took the first estimate, all of them tell a similar story. When it comes to defense spending, the west buries Russia. Even supposedly effete and peacenik western europe buries Russia. Not to mention that if military spending is like most things in Russia, a lot of it is ineffective due to corruption.

And you don't think that doesn't apply to some of our defence welfare bill; the UK is building two aircraft carriers, that might well never see deployment as effective, well aircraft carriers. 

[alfred russel]

And you don't think that doesn't apply to some of our defence welfare bill; the UK is building two aircraft carriers, that might well never see deployment as effective, well aircraft carriers. 

Without a doubt.I think corruption, general inefficiency of government, political grandstanding etc. plague western military budgets. My uninformed guess would be that they hit Russia worse.

[Zanza]

And Russia spends a much higher share of its available resources on the military than Western Europe. Western Europe could easily ramp up military spending if we would consider it a priority over other things.

[Admiral Yi]

When it comes to defense spending, the west buries Russia.

I would assume Russia pays its troops significantly less than the West does.

[alfred russel]

When it comes to defense spending, the west buries Russia.

I would assume Russia pays its troops significantly less than the West does.

Im posting from a phone, so no link, but a cbo report said for 2013 the amount going to pay and benefits for current and retired military was 150m. So that isnt causing the difference, and in any case would expect that our recruits are pound for pound better than russian conscripts.

[Syt]

Yeah I don't get the Germans.  They must really need natural gas.

That's the economic side. The public opinion side ... well, you can't imagine how anti-war the German public has become. Armed conflict is something to be avoided at all costs. Germany are the new appeasers. If Russia were to use military force, there'd be a lot of people in Germany IMHO that would argue that the West made them do it and that it's the West's fault.

[Berkut]

Some fact based posting about the "gutted" defense spending no longer able to contain Russia:

2013 Defense Expenditure:

USA: $640b
France: $61b
UK: $58b
Germany: $49b
Italy: $32.7b

Russia: $88b

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures

I just took the first estimate, all of them tell a similar story. When it comes to defense spending, the west buries Russia. Even supposedly effete and peacenik western europe buries Russia. Not to mention that if military spending is like most things in Russia, a lot of it is ineffective due to corruption.

Wars are not won by who spends more though, just ask the Vietnamese.

There is no question that the US spends a huge amount in defense, but very little of it goes towards the kind of capability that would be useful if Russia decided to annex Estonia and NATO wanted to do something about it directly. And Western Europe doesn't spend enough to maintain their own levels of military preparedness.

Comparing a bunch of separate countries spending all added together is meaningless, since so much of western military spending is for infrastructure that is duplicated, rather than actual combat power.

But what say "Berkut is wrong"? My point is building on the point the article is making, I am not asking anyone to take my word for it.