Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Razgovory]

I trust that isn't an exhaustive list of flaws.

[Viking]

I've bolded the flawed portion of your reasoning.  This tension is entirely russian-based.  There is virtually no evidence to support this being a natural popular response, and every evidence that it is russian provocateurs.

Agree, here, what was happening in ukraine was the normal fucked up shit that normally happens there. What brought this to a head was a failed attempt by russia to purchase influence with it's loan guarantee.  That pretty much de-legitimized a large section of the russia leaning part of the political spectrum. The political violence from Berkut certainly just made it worse. It's when the russia friendly side of ukrainian politics abandoned the russian preferred candidate that russia intervened.

Putin lost Ukraine and is either trying to force Ukraine to behave better or to get what he can out of it and of course boost his nationalist credentials at home.

[mongers]

I've bolded the flawed portion of your reasoning.  This tension is entirely russian-based.  There is virtually no evidence to support this being a natural popular response, and every evidence that it is russian provocateurs.

Agree, here, what was happening in ukraine was the normal fucked up shit that normally happens there. What brought this to a head was a failed attempt by russia to purchase influence with it's loan guarantee. That pretty much de-legitimized a large section of the russia leaning part of the political spectrum. The political violence from Berkut certainly just made it worse. It's when the russia friendly side of ukrainian politics abandoned the russian preferred candidate that russia intervened.

Putin lost Ukraine and is either trying to force Ukraine to behave better or to get what he can out of it and of course boost his nationalist credentials at home.

[DGuller]

I'm pro-Russian in that I like Russia and want it to be a normal country with roads and schools and companies that isn't psychotically trying to Frankenstein the USSR.

Russia has only two possible conditions:  humbled and aggressive.  In either case they will be their own biggest enemy in everyday life, so keep dreaming that your ideal will ever be achieved.

[Razgovory]

Well the Germans eventually got over that.  Course we had to beat the ever living shit out of them a couple of times.

I find it disturbing how many people buy into Moscow's Propaganda.

[DGuller]

Well the Germans eventually got over that.  Course we had to beat the ever living shit out of them a couple of times.

Too bad Russia has the nukes, and plenty of trained sociopaths with every semblance of soul bleached out of them with the finger on the button.

[Razgovory]

Indeed.

[Grinning_Colossus]

I'm pro-Russian in that I like Russia and want it to be a normal country with roads and schools and companies that isn't psychotically trying to Frankenstein the USSR.

Russia has only two possible conditions:  humbled and aggressive.  In either case they will be their own biggest enemy in everyday life, so keep dreaming that your ideal will ever be achieved.

There's a fleeting intermediate condition, run-by-the-left-liberal-intelligentsia-and-profoundly-unstable, that provides glimpses of what Russia could be like as a normal country.

[Queequeg]

Well the Germans eventually got over that.  Course we had to beat the ever living shit out of them a couple of times.

Too bad Russia has the nukes, and plenty of trained sociopaths with every semblance of soul bleached out of them with the finger on the button.

China got out of crazy. Russia can.

[Viking]

I've bolded the flawed portion of your reasoning.  This tension is entirely russian-based.  There is virtually no evidence to support this being a natural popular response, and every evidence that it is russian provocateurs.

Agree, here, what was happening in ukraine was the normal fucked up shit that normally happens there. What brought this to a head was a failed attempt by russia to purchase influence with it's loan guarantee. That pretty much de-legitimized a large section of the russia leaning part of the political spectrum. The political violence from Berkut certainly just made it worse. It's when the russia friendly side of ukrainian politics abandoned the russian preferred candidate that russia intervened.

Putin lost Ukraine and is either trying to force Ukraine to behave better or to get what he can out of it and of course boost his nationalist credentials at home.

Yes, Janukovich's party helped vote him out and voted in the new government. He fell because his own people abandoned him.

[Syt]

So, what are the odds for a major escalation between the Victory Day parades in Russia this coming Friday and the election in Ukraine on the 25th? I was guessing that Russia would keep things simmering, maybe slightly escalating until mid-May:
1. It seems inopportune to launch a "peace keeping mission" over Easter (which is huge in Orthodox church).
2. It also seems unlikely to do so before the Victory Day parades where you can celebrate your past victories and resurgent strength before actually putting it to the test.
3. In May there's less chance of the terrain in Ukraine turning to mud from spring weather.

And then, when the country is bogged down in violence, they can ride in as the preservers of the peace.

[Syt]

Also, didn't the People's Republic of Donetsk want to hold a referendum on independence on the 11th? If the fighting continues, it gives Russia a great pretext to come to aid them in order to ensure that the democratic voice of the people will be heard.

[DGuller]

China got out of crazy. Russia can.

I don't see the similarities.  Chinese insanity was imposed from the top down.  Russian insanity is there at the grassroots, Putin is merely tapping into it.

[Ed Anger]

China got out of crazy. Russia can.

I don't see the similarities.  Chinese insanity was imposed from the top down.  Russian insanity is there at the grassroots, Putin is merely tapping into it.

You feeling a bit nutty DG? Since it is ingrained as you say.

[DGuller]

China got out of crazy. Russia can.

I don't see the similarities.  Chinese insanity was imposed from the top down.  Russian insanity is there at the grassroots, Putin is merely tapping into it.

You feeling a bit nutty DG? Since it is ingrained as you say.

I'm not Russian.