Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Sheilbh]

Last couple of entries here are interesting:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/05/ukraine-crisis-russia-nato-talks-live

Turns out ITV reporter was with the UN envoy:

18m ago
Mates reports that Serry has escaped, after the path of his "car was [temporarily] blocked by protesters chanting Putin Putin."

Mates concludes: "Very unpleasant incident over. Robert Serry said v happy to leave #crimea if it helped de escalate the situation."

Updated 3m ago
20m ago UN envoy blockaded inside Crimea shop
The UN special envoy to Ukraine, Robert Serry, was blockaded inside a coffee shop in Crimea by a militia, according to ITV Europe editor James Mates, who is in the shop with Serry.

Mates is narrating the standoff. "With Robert Serry now," he writes:

not kidnapped, but held in a coffee shop. Some men outside prevent him from leaving.

Special rep is waiting in coffee shop for help. He's asked us to stay with him and keep filming #Ukriane

UN special advisor Robert Serry had been visiting navy commander when his car was blocked. Stand off followed #Ukraine

UN special envoy Robert Serry's assistant says she saw at least one man with a gun among group who blocked his car. #Ukraine

Outside coffee shop are men in combat fatigues blocking the door. Some wear pro Russia black and gold arm band. Not allowing anyone in/out

Inexplicably, U.N. Deputy Secretary-General Jan Eliasson on Wednesday denied reports that U.N. representative in Ukraine Robert Serry was seized by armed men in Crimea.

Eliasson treated the situation as resolved, Reuters reports:

"He was not kidnapped but he was seriously threatened," Eliasson told reporters in New York by telephone from Kiev, adding that "this action should be seriously condemned."

[Tamas]

I have covered that already. 

[Tamas]

One thing: what if part of Putin's actions is that at the very least he gets to collapse the new Ukrainian government, and show that such revolutions lead to chaos and disarray?

That would be an important conclusion (from his view) for all opposition forces in Russia or one of Russia's allies. I mean, Russia has been the reactionary go-to bully since 1849 in Hungary.

[PJL]

http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-liveblog-day-16-russian-provocations/

1450 GMT: Call this the economic H-bomb: Russian lawmakers are drafting a law that will allow them to nationalize the assets of US or European companies if the US or EU pass sanctions against Russia.
This is a draft law, and it may or may not come to fruition, but the fact that it is being debated is chilling. For anyone downplaying the severity of this crisis or the breach between the West and Russia, even the whisper of such a law in the Duma should put things intro perspective.

And we know that this administration has a history of nationalizing the assets of oligarchs and businesses that cross its path, so the threat needs to be taken seriously, even if, for now, it's just a threat.

I'm sure that Russia would enjoy all the manifold benefits of economic autarky in the modern world. 

Oh dear, if that comes about, it'll mean BP will have been shafted by both the US and Russia.

[DGuller]

Honestly, Western companies that invest in Russia deserve what they get.  The writing has been on the wall for a long time that your property rights are subjected to sudden renegotiation.

[Tamas]

Honestly, Western companies that invest in Russia deserve what they get.  The writing has been on the wall for a long time that your property rights are subjected to sudden renegotiation.

indeed

[alfred russel]

Yeah, well they still have been murdering each other by the thousands since the East Slav-friendly Gediminids died.  Polish dominion in Ukraine was neither particularly efficient nor particularly friendly.

Poland and the Ukraine have experienced heavy doses of Russia and Germany. To them, murdering a few thousand people and raping grandma is like not returning salt shakers you borrowed. Not cool, but nothing that should get between friends.

[derspiess]

What I wonder, is that when Ukraine gets it's army into shape (they called all able bodied men to sign up for the army), will they try to push the Reds out of Crimea?

Not a chance.  They know they'd face a lot of resistance from the Russian majority there.  They'd have every right to do so, but it would be unwise.

[The Larch]

Some 40 assailants "dressed like bikers" seized Col Gen Mikhail Koval at about 16:00 local time near the gates of the Coast Guard naval base. They pushed away the officers surrounding the general and shoved him into a jeep, the border guard's press service said. They believe Col Gen Koval was taken to Sevastopol, and was trying to negotiate with the kidnappers, the BBC understands.

this is a weird-ass crisis

Must be those Night Wolves dudes I mentioned a few days ago, which were active setting up militias in Crimea in late February.

[Jacob]

What I wonder, is that when Ukraine gets it's army into shape (they called all able bodied men to sign up for the army), will they try to push the Reds out of Crimea?

Not a chance.  They know they'd face a lot of resistance from the Russian majority there.  They'd have every right to do so, but it would be unwise.

I'm not completely convinced that Russian speaking Ukrainians are lined up solidly with the actual Russians.

[Admiral Yi]

CNN is saying the US has flown planes to the Baltics.  The Senate is debating a non-binding sanctions bill.

[Barrister]

What I wonder, is that when Ukraine gets it's army into shape (they called all able bodied men to sign up for the army), will they try to push the Reds out of Crimea?

Not a chance.  They know they'd face a lot of resistance from the Russian majority there.  They'd have every right to do so, but it would be unwise.

I'm not completely convinced that Russian speaking Ukrainians are lined up solidly with the actual Russians.

Yes, the people living in Crimea are, well, former soviet citizens.  They well know to stick to the party line when the media starts asking uncomfortable questions about who you support.

[derspiess]

What I wonder, is that when Ukraine gets it's army into shape (they called all able bodied men to sign up for the army), will they try to push the Reds out of Crimea?

Not a chance.  They know they'd face a lot of resistance from the Russian majority there.  They'd have every right to do so, but it would be unwise.

I'm not completely convinced that Russian speaking Ukrainians are lined up solidly with the actual Russians.

Ethnic Russians are pushing about 60% of the population in Crimea.  And while there's obviously some outside agitation, it does seem they would rather be part of Russia than Ukraine.

[derspiess]

Does anyone know what sort of freedom of movement Russia is entitled to in Crimea per the 1997 treaty with Ukraine?  RT claims that Russia is allowed to have up to 25,000 troops "in Crimea" and I always assumed they were limited to the Sebastopol naval base, though maybe with some limited transit provisions.

I'm sure RT is fudging things, but I was just curious as to how much.

http://rt.com/news/russian-troops-crimea-ukraine-816/

[KRonn]

So when any group of non-native peoples living in a nation decide that they don't want to be part of the country they live in, they have a right or standing to have parts of the nation taken by another nation or to become separate? This is where this is all going, isn't it? Especially with Russia, there are Russians living in every former USSR republic which would give Russia a cassus belli everywhere! The Baltics should be very worried, though I believe they're all NATO members now.