Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Syt]

The thing about Putin is he lives off of respect and glamour to a much greater degree than any other leader we have problems with. His country is also essentially on normalized relations with the entire West. Unlike the Ayatollahs, Assad, or the Kim dynasty that is so sanctioned any further sanctions are just marginal annoyances Putin is genuinely vulnerable to sanctions in a big way. Hitting a few hundred top political oligarchs in Russia with restrictive travel sanctions, potentially even frozen assets or etc would immediately cost him serious support. Further, any threat to that $15bn positive trade balance Russia has with the U.S. could seriously hurt Putin's standing at home. Russia is still fairly poor but I wouldn't call it true third world, which means Russians have a lot more to lose. They also theoretically live in a country where if a good 60% of them got really pissed at Putin his position would probably become untenable. Putin is a not-quite-dictator whose reins of domestic power could be made perilous with sanctions, and that is what I'd like to see happen.

The question is whether this would put pressure on Putin or if it would strengthen his position - don't underestimate Russians' ability to paint themselves victims of evil foreign plots to keep Russia down.

[Syt]

Good book, BUT ITS FICTION!!!!!!11111onweonewoeneoneoene WTF?????++++++plusplusplus

Guardian livebloggers have a sense of humour

I don't doubt he is well read. I just feel that this suggests that Guardian livebloggers don't know that if all you know about he crimean war is Flashman and Tennyson and Nightingale then that's what you think it was.

Well, Orlando Figes' tome about the Crimean War came out a few years ago, but I haven't read it yet.

[The Brain]

Do us a favor and let us know when you hear the cart-starts pop before you head to the bunker, 'k?

My wife is freaked out enough as it is. She doesn't remember this Cold War stuff.

Why not?

[The Brain]

great powers have regional interests and exploit countries within their zone. every great power does this, and it shouldn't come as a shock when a great power exerts pressure on a smaller country within its regional interest. that is exactly what is occurring here. is it fair? no, but it's never fair. we're reacting to it because russia is seen as an enemy. if we were the ones doing it, we (or at least a portion of us) would be seeing ourselves as the good guys

I guess I see your point.  The US is occupying parts of Canada and demanding they be annexed to the US, and China is doing the same in Vietnam, so it's OK for Russia to.

TOTALLY INCORRECT

Great powers don't have any special rights in neighboring countries.

wut

[Viking]

Good book, BUT ITS FICTION!!!!!!11111onweonewoeneoneoene WTF?????++++++plusplusplus

Guardian livebloggers have a sense of humour

I don't doubt he is well read. I just feel that this suggests that Guardian livebloggers don't know that if all you know about he crimean war is Flashman and Tennyson and Nightingale then that's what you think it was.

Well, Orlando Figes' tome about the Crimean War came out a few years ago, but I haven't read it yet.

Q.E.D.

[Zanza]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26405635

Ukraine orders full military mobilisation over Russia moves

Ukraine has ordered a full military mobilisation in response to Russia's build-up of its forces in Crimea.

Acting President Olexander Turchynov has ordered the closure of airspace to all non-civilian aircraft.

US President Barack Obama has called Russian troop deployments a "violation of Ukrainian sovereignty".

Ukraine has said it will seek the help of US and UK leaders in guaranteeing its security. Nato has called emergency talks to be held at 1200 GMT.

Several other measures were announced by Andriy Parubiy, chair of the national security and defence council of Ukraine:

The armed forces would be put on "full combat readiness".
Reserves to be mobilised and trained
Emergency headquarters to be set up
Increased security at key sites, including nuclear plants.
The BBC has seen what appear to be Russian troops digging trenches on the Crimean border.

Heavily armed groups continue to occupy key sites on the peninsula, including airports and communications hubs, although there has been no actual violence.

[Legbiter]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26405635

Ukraine orders full military mobilisation over Russia moves

Ukraine has ordered a full military mobilisation in response to Russia's build-up of its forces in Crimea.

Acting President Olexander Turchynov has ordered the closure of airspace to all non-civilian aircraft.

US President Barack Obama has called Russian troop deployments a "violation of Ukrainian sovereignty".

Ukraine has said it will seek the help of US and UK leaders in guaranteeing its security. Nato has called emergency talks to be held at 1200 GMT.

Several other measures were announced by Andriy Parubiy, chair of the national security and defence council of Ukraine:

The armed forces would be put on "full combat readiness".
Reserves to be mobilised and trained
Emergency headquarters to be set up
Increased security at key sites, including nuclear plants.
The BBC has seen what appear to be Russian troops digging trenches on the Crimean border.

Heavily armed groups continue to occupy key sites on the peninsula, including airports and communications hubs, although there has been no actual violence.

I wonder how well their military will follow orders if called upon to fight. 

[The Brain]

I like how Germany made the strategic decision to make itself dependent on Russia for dirty energy, instead of getting clean energy from Canada and Australia. Germans truly are monumentally stupid.

[Legbiter]

I like how Germany made the strategic decision to make itself dependent on Russia for dirty energy, instead of getting clean energy from Canada and Australia. Germans truly are monumentally stupid.

Not to mention what will likely happen to all those pipelines if Ukraine blows up like a toilet.

[Solmyr]

I wonder how well their military will follow orders if called upon to fight. 

Not very.

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/ukrainian-warship-2014-3

REPORT: Ukrainian Warship Defects To Russia
Paul Szoldra Mar 2, 2014, 3:13 PM

Ukrainian Navy flagship Hetman Sahaidachny has reportedly refused orders from Kiev and defected to the Russian side, a Russian senator has claimed in an interview with Ivestia Daily.

"Ukraine's Navy flagship the Hetman Sahaidachny has come over to our side today. It has hung out the St Andrew's flag," Sen. Igor Morozov, a member of the committee on the international affairs, told Izvestia. "The crew has fulfilled the order by the chief commander of Ukraine's armed forces Viktor Yanukovych."

[Viking]

It's not really in keeping with the Russian Claim that Yanukovitch is the president and Gangsters are taking over the country to start placing russian flags on the land and st andrews crosses on the ships.

[Legbiter]

It's not really in keeping with the Russian Claim that Yanukovitch is the president and Gangsters are taking over the country to start placing russian flags on the land and st andrews crosses on the ships.

Putin is betting that the West is too spineless and decadent to inflict a steady dose of Cold War containment on Russia while he re-vassalizes Ukraine. He may be right.

[CountDeMoney]

I like how Germany made the strategic decision to make itself dependent on Russia for dirty energy, instead of getting clean energy from Canada and Australia. Germans truly are monumentally stupid.

At least by dumping all their nuclear power, they'll be free from the threats Germany faces in 9.0 earthquakes and the resulting tsunamis.  So very, very smart.

[Syt]

I like how Germany made the strategic decision to make itself dependent on Russia for dirty energy, instead of getting clean energy from Canada and Australia. Germans truly are monumentally stupid.

Not to mention what will likely happen to all those pipelines if Ukraine blows up like a toilet.

I have a feeling that Russia will do whatever it can to secure those pipelines. It will be "protecting the interests of Russia and - more importantly - those of their partners in the West."

[Syt]

I like how Germany made the strategic decision to make itself dependent on Russia for dirty energy, instead of getting clean energy from Canada and Australia. Germans truly are monumentally stupid.

At least by dumping all their nuclear power, they'll be free from the threats Germany faces in 9.0 earthquakes and the resulting tsunamis.  So very, very smart.

That was a monumentally stupid move, but it's a typical knee jerk reaction of the German media if something bad happens elsewhere in the world: "Could this happen to us? And if it did, how bad would it be?"