Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Queequeg]

Kind of hilarious to see smart people like Fareed Zakaria and Madeline Albright argue that the Tatars (Zakaria called them "Tartars", a derogatory term derived from the Greek for Hell, Tartaros) could pose a Dagestan or Chechnya style insurgency. It's largely flatland, they're 10% of the population and the Tatars have 300 years of pro-Englightenment rationalist tradition, 800 of Sufism and no history of modern radicalism.

[CountDeMoney]

You know what's hilarious?  Filthy Russian fanbois.

[Queequeg]

 

[derspiess]

That Ukraine Live Blog had an unsubstantiated report that Russian troops were massing near that corner where the Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia borders converge.  This happens to be the Russian territory that is closest to Kiev.

[Viking]

All the Tatar's I've met called themselves Tatars, emphasizing, that despite their russian names, extreme xenophobic paranoia and speaking russian they were not russians, but rather Tatars. It felt a bit like the Lebanese Christians calling themselves Phoenecians before launching into racist anti-arab diatribes.

[CountDeMoney]

You people smell like BO when I'm in the register line at Best Buy.  It's disgusting. 

[Razgovory]

Goddamn it, we need to punch Ivan in the nose and drive the Reds back to Moscow!

[Syt]

The commander of the Ukrainian Navy, appointed yesterday, has defected: "I swear to execute the orders of the (pro-Russia) commander-in-chief of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea."

[CountDeMoney]

Yay! New maps!

[Syt]

I'm guessing that at this point Putin might be a bit frustrated that despite all provocations the Ukrainians have so far refused to fire the first shot. It's a bit of a surreal situation at the moment, one army invading, the other refusing to fight.

[Habbaku]

I'm guessing that at this point Putin might be a bit frustrated that despite all provocations the Ukrainians have so far refused to fire the first shot. It's a bit of a surreal situation at the moment, one army invading, the other refusing to fight.

No war!  No peace!

[HVC]

Goddamn it, we need to punch Ivan in the nose and drive the Reds back to Moscow!

too close to home. The west is ok with bloodying up some backwards countries far away, but they won't do anything with Russia. Fighting at the front door is less than appealing when you get nothing in return. A few sanctions maybe, but minimal stuff. Russia will get Crimea, and keep the Ukraine within its influence.

[crazy canuck]

I'm guessing that at this point Putin might be a bit frustrated that despite all provocations the Ukrainians have so far refused to fire the first shot. It's a bit of a surreal situation at the moment, one army invading, the other refusing to fight.

No war!  No peace!

War is Peace

[CountDeMoney]

I'm guessing that at this point Putin might be a bit frustrated that despite all provocations the Ukrainians have so far refused to fire the first shot. It's a bit of a surreal situation at the moment, one army invading, the other refusing to fight.

They're still calling up reservists.  Mobilization take time.  And it's probably cold as balls, too.  Reservists hate that.

[Queequeg]

Link.

The Invasion Of Crimea Is Russia's Worst Foreign Policy Blunder In A Generation
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The last time I wrote about Crimea there were still some questions about exactly what was happening. It seemed likely that the Russians had decided to intervene, but they were still furiously denying any involvement and many of the reports coming out of Sevastopol (where Russia already had around 15,000 troops stationed) and Simferopol (the regional capital) were confusing and contradictory. Now there isn't the slightest shred of doubt: in a campaign that had all of the hallmarks of its distinctive military doctrine, Russia swiftly dispatched thousands of troops to the sovereign territory of Ukraine. The Russian troops aren't even pretending to abide by any previous agreements, and as of Sunday morning were actively dis-arming the small numbers of Ukrainian military personnel located in the peninsula and, by setting up roadblocks and taking control of crucial bits of infrastructure, have effectively cut off Crimea from the rest of the world. It is in no way an exaggeration to say that Russia has invaded and taken over Crimea.


Exactly how bad the situation will get depends on a huge number of variables, but perhaps the most single most important one is the following: what is Russia's end game? At the present moment it's totally unclear whether Russia simply intends to break off Crimea as a punishment for the overthrow of Viktor Yanukovych or if Russia intends on a much larger (and much more dangerous) campaign to overthrow and replace the current Ukrainian government. Neither of these are the slightest bit justified, and any Russian attempt to forcibly remove Crimea from Ukraine would violate a raft of international laws and treaties. But the existence of numerous "frozen conflicts" throughout the post-Soviet space shows that life can continue after the creation of a pro-Russian enclave. But if Russia's actual goal is regime change, and the authorization for the use of military force passed by the upper house of parliament was so vaguely worded that it could be used to justify any course of action, then we could shortly be seeing open warfare in Europe for the first time since the end of the Second World War.

However even if we end up with the least-bad option of Crimea turning into a Russian enclave like Abkhazia or Transdniestria (which, for the record, would still be really bad!) Russia has made a colossal miscalculation that could poison its relations with Europe and the United States for a generation. Unlike in 2008, when the Georgians really did start shooting first and thus gave the Russian intervention in South Ossetia a patina of justification, nothing that's happened in Crimea or anywhere else in Ukraine even remotely resembles just cause. The Russian intervention in Crimea is a naked attempt to use military force to influence the politics of another country, and it will be seen as such by everyone in Europe and the United States. There aren't many groups in the West that are inclined towards better relations with Russia, there is support in certain business and diplomatic circles but little among the general public, but the few that exist will be totally marginalized and discredited. The momentum for additional sanctions and penalties will grow, and no one in the US or Europe will dare to oppose them because they don't want to be seen as supporting Russian aggression. So, to summarize, Russia's already-small group of friends in the West will shrink to nothing and its relations with Europe and the Untied States will comprehensively deteriorate to their worst level since before Gorbachev became premier.

And that's just the diplomatic costs. The economic costs to Russia will also be severe. The Moscow stock market is going to get absolutely clobbered when it opens tomorrow, and many foreign investors are going to bolt for the exits as quickly as they can. Depending on the severity of the situation in Ukraine, the Russian financial system could come screeching to a halt. It's a given that many of these decisions impacting Russia's economy will be made in haste and without a sober calculation of costs and befits, but that's the way the world works: investors often overreact to political events and they will certainly overreact to a military invasion of a neighboring country. Russia's economy has already been slowing down for the past several quarters, and the absolute last thing that it needs at the moment is a huge acceleration in capital flight. The ruble is also going to suffer, and while a cheaper ruble could eventually be good for domestic manufacturers in the short term a much weaker ruble is likely to spark inflation (perhaps cause the Central Bank to raise interest rates).


Russia will "succeed" in the narrow sense of taking over Crimea and, perhaps, other parts of Eastern Ukraine. But from a strategic perspective its intervention in Ukraine will be a disaster: it will seriously weaken an already stuttering economy and will poison relations with a host of countries with which Russia needs to have productive working relationships. It might appear that Russia is confidently asserting its power in its neighborhood, but it is actually making a blunder of historic proportions.