Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Tamas]

Well, if the US decides against de-armament, that will be enough.


And regarding Psellus' pro-Russian vision of doom for Ukraine: yes, by all probability it will remain the same crappy country it has been the past 600 years or so.

Ideal scenario is to turn them around. But do you know what? It is completely beside the point for the US and the EU.
The point is that there is very clearly a re-emergent Russian Empire (or rather, a clear and aggressive effort to re-establish it) on the loose, and it must be contained as far as from our borders as it is possible. A pro-western or at least neutral crappy Ukraine is a very good solution. First of all we need them on our side. Even if it means having their cleptocrats steal most of the money we support them with, as long as they keep Russian influence and troops out.

[PJL]

I have a sinking feeling that NATO is pretty much over.

Don't be a twat.

I think Raz has a point.  IMO, NATO is especially vulnerable to a frog in boiling water attack, much like the one perpetrated on Crimea.  An all-out massive invasion would obviously not go down well, but a slow strangulation that places the onus on the defender to gather their resolve to draw the line and strike back can be deadly.  I'm not sure that Western Europeans have either the will or the ability to get involved in a serious confrontation.

So the salami tactics described earlier.

[PJL]

At the end of the day, I think the whole crisis demonstrates that the West cares more about capitalism than about democracy and other ideals. As long as you are becoming capitalist (even the crony kind) it doesn't really matter what you do. (E.g China in Tienanmen Square, 1930's Hitler Germany etc) up to a certain point. And that point is usually complete annexation of a country (e.g. Kuwait, Czechoslovakia).

But woe betide any regime that is diametrically opposed to capitalism (Communism, Islamlists, Terrorists in general,etc). Then we'll crack down on you like a ton of bricks.

[Tamas]

It is so easy to draw similarities between now and the 1930s that it is hard to resist not to do so.

A West whose combined strength is vastly greater than the increasingly autocratic and aggressive great power's, is semi-recovering from an economic crisis and divided by differences, and thus is unwilling to make a determined stand to stop the problem (the aggressive great power) in it's roots.

The aggressive great power suffered  a great shock and collapse during the previous conflict with the Western powers, and as a result finds itself with a frustrated population and many of it's ethnicity scattered around neighbouring countries, which are, incidentally, former parts of it's former empire.

Plus the aggressive great power is ruled and pushed into dictatorship by a ruler who has his legitimacy on showing force and being able to recover lost glories and heydays of the "empire".

[CountDeMoney]

At the end of the day, I think the whole crisis demonstrates that the West cares more about capitalism than about democracy and other ideals. As long as you are becoming capitalist (even the crony kind) it doesn't really matter what you do. (E.g China in Tienanmen Square, 1930's Hitler Germany etc) up to a certain point. And that point is usually complete annexation of a country (e.g. Kuwait, Czechoslovakia).

But woe betide any regime that is diametrically opposed to capitalism (Communism, Islamlists, Terrorists in general,etc). Then we'll crack down on you like a ton of bricks.

Well, duh.  Capitalism is where the money is.  Hell, even the Party of Money here would rather vote for oligarchs, and curtail the democratic system (i.e., voter registration reform) to insure that it happens.

[Valmy]

At the end of the day, I think the whole crisis demonstrates that the West cares more about capitalism than about democracy and other ideals.

To be fair our efforts to care about Democracy are usually total disasters, and attempts to spread western social values remind everybody of Imperialism.  Might be better for the world if we just did the capitalism thing.

But woe betide any regime that is diametrically opposed to capitalism (Communism, Islamlists, Terrorists in general,etc). Then we'll crack down on you like a ton of bricks.

I guess I would be more moved by this garbage if any of those regimes were somehow less opposed to Democracy and other ideals than they are to capitalism.  What countries should we be clamping down on?  Risking world war by going hard after China and Russia?  What sort of bullshit should we be doing?  ALL OUT WAR OR HYPOCRISY!!!!1111   

[alfred russel]

Yeah, Salami slicing tactics is a big danger.  I also have grave doubts about some of European allies.  Would they really want to risk everything for a few Estonian villages that the Russians move into to protect the ethnic Russians from Baltic Neo-Nazis?

Lets turn this around. NATO is a defensive alliance. What is the point of joining the alliance if you get the benefits without joining?

[derspiess]

Well, duh.  Capitalism is where the money is.  Hell, even the Party of Money here would rather vote for oligarchs, and curtail the democratic system (i.e., voter registration reform) to insure that it happens.

  You funny.

[Capetan Mihali]

At the end of the day, I think the whole crisis demonstrates that the West cares more about capitalism than about democracy and other ideals.

To be fair our efforts to care about Democracy are usually total disasters, and attempts to spread western social values remind everybody of Imperialism.  Might be better for the world if we just did the capitalism thing.

Our efforts to spread our model of global capitalism (e.g. through the World Bank and IMF, persuading/coercing countries into massively disruptive "free market" structural reforms, opposing import-substitution industrialization, etc.) have caused far more total disasters for regular people in the countries affected and have been reminded everybody far more of imperialism than any effort to spread social values...

[Capetan Mihali]

The other thing is that Western social values are, by and large, capitalist social values, and can't really be divorced from the economic system that sustains them.

To pick up the example of ISI again, an American in one of these countries is likely to feel that "LOL only one brand of soap!" is not only laughable but also a denial of the basic right to freedom of choice, freedom of enterprise, etc., although it's "purely" economic in that it's the result of a policy choice on developing national industries.

[derspiess]

To be fair our efforts to care about Democracy are usually total disasters, and attempts to spread western social values remind everybody of Imperialism.  Might be better for the world if we just did the capitalism thing.

Actually I think the US does a fairly decent job of soft-peddling liberty/democracy (e.g., NED & some USAID programs).  It's just when we forcefully push it that it becomes a costly failure.

[Tamas]

At the end of the day, I think the whole crisis demonstrates that the West cares more about capitalism than about democracy and other ideals.

To be fair our efforts to care about Democracy are usually total disasters, and attempts to spread western social values remind everybody of Imperialism.  Might be better for the world if we just did the capitalism thing.

Our efforts to spread our model of global capitalism (e.g. through the World Bank and IMF, persuading/coercing countries into massively disruptive "free market" structural reforms, opposing import-substitution industrialization, etc.) have caused far more total disasters for regular people in the countries affected and have been reminded everybody far more of imperialism than any effort to spread social values...

[Tamas]

The other thing is that Western social values are, by and large, capitalist social values, and can't really be divorced from the economic system that sustains them.

To pick up the example of ISI again, an American in one of these countries is likely to feel that "LOL only one brand of soap!" is not only laughable but also a denial of the basic right to freedom of choice, freedom of enterprise, etc., although it's "purely" economic in that it's the result of a policy choice on developing national industries.

Of course they are linked: political freedom is very, very closely linked to economic freedom, with the latter being a prerequisite and a limiting factor of the former. And that is because the more control you have over an individual "economic freedom" namely his/her job and ability to pursuit his/her ambitions, the more control you have over his/her livelihood, ergo survival, ergo over his/her entire existence.

[alfred russel]

Our efforts to spread our model of global capitalism (e.g. through the World Bank and IMF, persuading/coercing countries into massively disruptive "free market" structural reforms, opposing import-substitution industrialization, etc.) have caused far more total disasters for regular people in the countries affected and have been reminded everybody far more of imperialism than any effort to spread social values...

Sometimes I think we should just pull out of the World Bank and IMF. Sure it would fuck over the developing world, but all we get is grief.

At the very least, put the issue to a vote of the UN general assembly, and promise to adhere to the results.

[Valmy]

Our efforts to spread our model of global capitalism (e.g. through the World Bank and IMF, persuading/coercing countries into massively disruptive "free market" structural reforms, opposing import-substitution industrialization, etc.) have caused far more total disasters for regular people in the countries affected and have been reminded everybody far more of imperialism than any effort to spread social values...

Not giving away money with no strings attached is Imperialism these days.  Doesn't take much.