Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Queequeg]

Nah.  This is petering out anyway. 

[katmai]

I would not take it amiss if a kindly mod where to create a new thread from the Squeeljack.

I'd rather just ban him.

[Sheilbh]

Russia's worried about the Russians in Estonia:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/19/us-russia-estonia-idUSBREA2I1J620140319

[Admiral Yi]

BTW, where the hell is Ban Ki Moon in all of this?  Dude has to be the most feckless Sec Gen in the history of the organization.  Dude needs to acquire some feck, stat.

[Caliga]

BTW, where the hell is Ban Ki Moon in all of this?  Dude has to be the most feckless Sec Gen in the history of the organization.  Dude needs to acquire some feck, stat.

Bring back the Boutros Boutros guy.

[Viking]

BTW, where the hell is Ban Ki Moon in all of this?  Dude has to be the most feckless Sec Gen in the history of the organization.  Dude needs to acquire some feck, stat.

Bring back the Boutros Boutros guy.

Actually Boutros Boutros Ghali think's he's learned his lesson. Saw an interview with him recently about how Boutros thought that the reason Morsi fell is because he pissed off the Americans and if Boutros knows anything is that you should never piss off the Americans. Sounds like the kind of conspiratorial thinking that pisses off the Americans.

[Ed Anger]

Goddamned Americans.

[alfred russel]

BTW, where the hell is Ban Ki Moon in all of this?  Dude has to be the most feckless Sec Gen in the history of the organization.  Dude needs to acquire some feck, stat.

This involves the big boys. He has no influence here, and can only make himself looked biased going forward.

No excuse for relative quiet on Syria and Venezuela though. So I sort of agree with you.

[alfred russel]

But as Psellus pointed out, there's no realistic "third way" for Ukraine.  Either the EU goes out to assist and embrace Ukraine (maybe not full membership/Schengen, but substantial aid and economic integration), or it will be forced to turn back to Russian domination.

I think Spellus pointed out that there is no rational third way for Ukraine. That doesn't mean it won't happen. Politics doesn't always result in rational outcomes.

The problem is that if you have two blocks entrenched on the Russian and EU sides of the voting block--you can easily end up with a 2 party (or two coalition) system where neither can really find new votes. It is ripe for corruption. Even if there is competition and changes in government, the government could swing wildly between pro EU and pro Russia stances (sort of how it has been recently).

[alfred russel]

The EU can nudge Ukraine in certain directions but its power is limited by the Ukranians themselves (or rather their elites). Membership doesn't confer any advantage beyond access to agricultural and structural funds, which are relatively limited despite all the hubbub (and which won't be of much use in the hands of corrupt oligarchs). Meanwhile you are opening your markets to some of the most competitive companies on Earth. If the only cards you can play are dismal salaries and worthless currency you are fucked.

It is not accession to the EU that brings wealth. It's the process one must undertake in order to be successful within the Union that eventually does.

It isn't a panacea, but it does bring other benefits. Your constitution has to converge with european standards and there is some oversight regarding the rule of law. I think one of the biggest benefits is the freedom of mobility (which also has a downside for the country).

However, I posted over the past few years about the chance of the Ukraine joining the EU. Each time the Euro members of the forum told me that there was no way for that to happen in the foreseeable future.

[Sheilbh]

It is. I'd say anything less than 20 years is optimistic.

[DGuller]

It is shocking as to how poor Ukraine is.  I know that it doesn't have oil like Russia, but having 1/12th the GDP of Russia while having 1/3rd of its population is pretty bewildering.  Ultimately this kind of economic mismanagement is what made it vulnerable to aggression.

[Razgovory]

BTW, where the hell is Ban Ki Moon in all of this?  Dude has to be the most feckless Sec Gen in the history of the organization.  Dude needs to acquire some feck, stat.

This involves the big boys. He has no influence here, and can only make himself looked biased going forward.

No excuse for relative quiet on Syria and Venezuela though. So I sort of agree with you.

There hasn't been a good UN general Sec since Hamarsjold was killed in the Congo.

[Capetan Mihali]

Squeeljack

He's disabled the board transponders and he's taking this thread to Bactria, goddamnit.

[DontSayBanana]

He's disabled the board transponders and he's taking this thread to Bactria, goddamnit.