Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Barrister]

Everyone is assuming that Putin is still a rational player. Considering what we've from high level sources recently that he's on another planet, there is no obvious reason why people are assuming he'll be restrained this time. I think Putin's jumped the shark and gone Hitler on us.

He's very rational. Ukraine is a good buffer and almost all of Russia's foreign exchange comes from the oil and gas pipelines which run through the country to it's European customers. Russia will not see Ukraine shift westwards, it will use military force to keep it that way.

The questions is to what extent will he, rationally, use military force in order to do so.

I very much doubt he'd do it by sending the tanks into Kiev.

Have we forgotten the Euromaidan protests of just last week (and which are still undergoing)?  Forget the Ukrainian military, he'd have massive civil disobedience on his hand if he went that far.  Unless he wanted to go all Tiannamen Square on them, that doesn't seem to be a very rational option.

Rather, what he's attempting to do is re-Finnlandize Ukraine, to re-inforce that no matter who is in government, they must be deferential to Russia.

[Legbiter]

The questions is to what extent will he, rationally, use military force in order to do so.

I very much doubt he'd do it by sending the tanks into Kiev.

Have we forgotten the Euromaidan protests of just last week (and which are still undergoing)?  Forget the Ukrainian military, he'd have massive civil disobedience on his hand if he went that far.  Unless he wanted to go all Tiannamen Square on them, that doesn't seem to be a very rational option.

Rather, what he's attempting to do is re-Finnlandize Ukraine, to re-inforce that no matter who is in government, they must be deferential to Russia.

I hope he dosen't roll on Kiev either. He'll sit in the Crimea, let Ukraine go bankrupt, watch them flail around and change governments a few times if need be and next September ask the Ukrainians whether they wouldn't prefer central heating this winter, with a friendly discount too.

[crazy canuck]

Everyone is assuming that Putin is still a rational player. Considering what we've from high level sources recently that he's on another planet, there is no obvious reason why people are assuming he'll be restrained this time. I think Putin's jumped the shark and gone Hitler on us.

He's very rational. Ukraine is a good buffer and almost all of Russia's foreign exchange comes from the oil and gas pipelines which run through the country to it's European customers. Russia will not see Ukraine shift westward and it will use military force to keep it that way.

Agreed.  Putin has made a calculated play to regain control of Ukraine.  No one in the West will lose anything - except for the matter of not actually doing anything of substance to guarantee the territorial integrity of Ukraine.  Europe will continue to gets its gas and oil from Russia and so there will be no major disruption and life will go on.  With of course the exception of the Ukranians who will have learned the hard lesson that they should have retained their nukes rather than trusting to a piece of paper to protect their interests.

In time that particular broken obligation will be an interesting extra credit question in history classes covering the early 21st century. 

[crazy canuck]

Rather, what he's attempting to do is re-Finnlandize Ukraine, to re-inforce that no matter who is in government, they must be deferential to Russia.

That is the best case scenario for Western strategists.  But why would he stop at a merely neutral state when he has boots on the ground already.

[Razgovory]

Everyone is assuming that Putin is still a rational player. Considering what we've from high level sources recently that he's on another planet, there is no obvious reason why people are assuming he'll be restrained this time. I think Putin's jumped the shark and gone Hitler on us.

He's very rational. Ukraine is a good buffer and almost all of Russia's foreign exchange comes from the oil and gas pipelines which run through the country to it's European customers. Russia will not see Ukraine shift westward and it will use military force to keep it that way.

Agreed.  Putin has made a calculated play to regain control of Ukraine.  No one in the West will lose anything - except for the matter of not actually doing anything of substance to guarantee the territorial integrity of Ukraine.  Europe will continue to gets its gas and oil from Russia and so there will be no major disruption and life will go on.  With of course the exception of the Ukranians who will have learned the hard lesson that they should have retained their nukes rather than trusting to a piece of paper to protect their interests.

In time that particular broken obligation will be an interesting extra credit question in history classes covering the early 21st century.

I imagine other parts of Europe will lose out in due time.  If Vlad can get what he wants now, he'll be bolder in the future.

[DGuller]

I think Putin is very rational as well.  Being rational, he must understand that now is the perfect time to strike, and weather whatever weak jabs he'll get in return.  The prospect of peaceful relationship with Ukraine is pretty much ruined now anyway, Ukrainians will remember for a long time that he pointed a loaded gun at them, so they may as well remember that he pointed a loaded gun at them and fired it with impunity.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Obama's comments about Putin being "on the wrong side of history" remind me of how he blasted Romney and the GOP during the campaign and deepen my sense that Obama doesn't understand the core differences between politics domestically and foreign relations. Putin doesn't give two shits what side of history Barack Obama believes him to be on, I don't think he understand Putin isn't like the American electorate but a genuine strategic power that has to be treated with directly and not just by making him look bad while making yourself look good.

[crazy canuck]

I imagine other parts of Europe will lose out in due time.  If Vlad can get what he wants now, he'll be bolder in the future.

That is possible but each area presents its own risks for Putin which are far greater than his intervention into Ukraine.

[Ed Anger]

We ought to bomb Damascus.

[OttoVonBismarck]

My assumption is for now at least Putin has stuck to Crimea and if he goes elsewhere, will stick to pro-Russian eastern Ukraine because the people there are pretty unlikely to riot in the streets over it. They may not necessarily want the Russians there, but they don't like the Kiev government either (and some of them do actually want the Russians there.) If he rolls into Kiev I don't see how he avoids having to basically massacre civilian protesters, and maybe he's ready to go that far but indications so far suggest probably not (if so, there's no benefit in waiting--he should have done it by now.)

[crazy canuck]

Obama's comments about Putin being "on the wrong side of history" remind me of how he blasted Romney and the GOP during the campaign and deepen my sense that Obama doesn't understand the core differences between politics domestically and foreign relations. Putin doesn't give two shits what side of history Barack Obama believes him to be on, I don't think he understand Putin isn't like the American electorate but a genuine strategic power that has to be treated with directly and not just by making him look bad while making yourself look good.

Yeah, I thought the same thing when I heard Obama made that comment.

[PJL]

Everyone is assuming that Putin is still a rational player. Considering what we've from high level sources recently that he's on another planet, there is no obvious reason why people are assuming he'll be restrained this time. I think Putin's jumped the shark and gone Hitler on us.

He's very rational. Ukraine is a good buffer and almost all of Russia's foreign exchange comes from the oil and gas pipelines which run through the country to it's European customers. Russia will not see Ukraine shift westwards, it will use military force to keep it that way.

The questions is to what extent will he, rationally, use military force in order to do so.

I very much doubt he'd do it by sending the tanks into Kiev.

Have we forgotten the Euromaidan protests of just last week (and which are still undergoing)?  Forget the Ukrainian military, he'd have massive civil disobedience on his hand if he went that far.  Unless he wanted to go all Tiannamen Square on them, that doesn't seem to be a very rational option.

Rather, what he's attempting to do is re-Finnlandize Ukraine, to re-inforce that no matter who is in government, they must be deferential to Russia.

You are correct that he wants to Finlandise Ukraine, and Ukraine to be deferential to Russia, but Putin does not recognise the interim government. As Yanukovich, the last legitimate (in Putin's eyes) president of Ukraine has asked for troops, then Putin will see occupying the whole of the Ukraine as helping the legitimate government out rather than an invasion.

So perhaps I was wrong to say he was irrational, but that is what I am expecting him to do next. He will not go just for the East since this is not just a ethnic Russians abroad in peril issue. He may use that as an excuse, but he will occupy all of Ukraine. As for casualties and disobedience, well the casualties in Chechnya didn't stop the war there, so I doubt it will stop him here.

[Ed Anger]

 Poland invoked article 4.

[Admiral Yi]

Carl Bernstein (of Watergate fame) claimed on CNN that Merkele is strongly opposed to any sanctions regime "with teeth."

[DGuller]

Carl Bernstein (of Watergate fame) claimed on CNN that Merkele is strongly opposed to any sanctions regime "with teeth."

Of course.