Ukraine's European Revolution?

[DGuller]

The same thing's going to happen in the Ukraine that happened in Georgia;  Russia gets control over the regions that Russia wants.  And there's nothing anybody's going to do about it.

Well, duh.  The big question is which regions it wants.  My money is on a hell of a lot more than Crimea.

[PJL]

The same thing's going to happen in the Ukraine that happened in Georgia;  Russia gets control over the regions that Russia wants.  And there's nothing anybody's going to do about it.

I disagree, all the indications are that Russia is indeed going to put a puppet regime (Yanukovich) installed in Ukraine. I honestly think Putin thinks this is his Iraq, and will go for regime change.

Actually, this does have the hallmark of Hungary 1956 / Czechoslovakia 1968 again. Putin will accept an 'independent' Ukraine as long as it agrees with Russia

[Razgovory]

I suspect he'll take the whole east, then use bribes and threats to set up a friendly regime in the West.  Then he'll move on to other targets.

[Barrister]

The same thing's going to happen in the Ukraine that happened in Georgia;  Russia gets control over the regions that Russia wants.  And there's nothing anybody's going to do about it.

Well, duh.  The big question is which regions it wants.  My money is on a hell of a lot more than Crimea.

I dunno exactly what Putin is doing.  The Russians have now missed their initial window - the few days after the change of government, when nobody in Ukraine knew what was happening, nobody knew who was giving orders.

I assume things are slightly more stable now.  Russians may not be simply allowed to walk into Kharkov as they did Crimea.  Not that Ukrainian troops open fire, but that they may be physically blocked unless the Russians open fire first.

[The Brain]

The wealth of the East will let him raise enough legions to crush all resistance.

[Barrister]

The same thing's going to happen in the Ukraine that happened in Georgia;  Russia gets control over the regions that Russia wants.  And there's nothing anybody's going to do about it.

I disagree, all the indications are that Russia is indeed going to put a puppet regime (Yanukovich) installed in Ukraine. I honestly think Putin thinks this is his Iraq, and will go for regime change.

It certainly won't be Yanukovych, who wasn't much of a Russian puppet before, and is just an embarassment now.

[DGuller]

I dunno exactly what Putin is doing.  The Russians have now missed their initial window - the few days after the change of government, when nobody in Ukraine knew what was happening, nobody knew who was giving orders.

I assume things are slightly more stable now.  Russians may not be simply allowed to walk into Kharkov as they did Crimea.  Not that Ukrainian troops open fire, but that they may be physically blocked unless the Russians open fire first.

Russians could just open fire first, and not give a shit.  They tried to go for a pretext that could at least be believed by retards, they failed.  It's a setback, not a defeat.  So they'll just restore order, and watch the Ukrainian army melt away in front of them one way or the other.

[PJL]

Everyone is assuming that Putin is still a rational player. Considering what we've from high level sources recently that he's on another planet, there is no obvious reason why people are assuming he'll be restrained this time. I think Putin's jumped the shark and gone Hitler on us.

[PJL]

Basically only the threat of force by NATO can stop Russian vassalisation of Ukraine now. Nothing else will work.

[Barrister]

Everyone is assuming that Putin is still a rational player. Considering what we've from high level sources recently that he's on another planet, there is no obvious reason why people are assuming he'll be restrained this time. I think Putin's jumped the shark and gone Hitler on us.

Putin is very much a rational player, and is no Hitler.  HIs reasoning is clearly not the same as ours and he values different things, but let's not be silly.

In fact his acts so far is are very much out of his own playbook.

[The Brain]

Everyone is assuming that Putin is still a rational player. Considering what we've from high level sources recently that he's on another planet, there is no obvious reason why people are assuming he'll be restrained this time. I think Putin's jumped the shark and gone Hitler on us.

Putin is very much a rational player, and is no Hitler.  HIs reasoning is clearly not the same as ours and he values different things, but let's not be silly.

In fact his acts so far is are very much out of his own playbook.

The info comes from the Ambassador at the dinner party.

[Grinning_Colossus]

Everyone is assuming that Putin is still a rational player. Considering what we've from high level sources recently that he's on another planet, there is no obvious reason why people are assuming he'll be restrained this time. I think Putin's jumped the shark and gone Hitler on us.

In situations like this, making other actors think you're not rational is a highly rational act.

[Legbiter]

The same thing's going to happen in the Ukraine that happened in Georgia;  Russia gets control over the regions that Russia wants.  And there's nothing anybody's going to do about it.

The best solution for Russia would be to get Yulia Tymoshenko back in office, she was even more corrupt and pliable than Yanukovich was. Also in hindsight, those eastern partnership agreements the EU was offering to Ukraine and Belarus were rather unfortunate, given that Russia wants these countries at the very least to be neutral buffers and will use military force to keep them that way.

[PJL]

Edit - I was arguing against myself in this post

[Legbiter]

Everyone is assuming that Putin is still a rational player. Considering what we've from high level sources recently that he's on another planet, there is no obvious reason why people are assuming he'll be restrained this time. I think Putin's jumped the shark and gone Hitler on us.

He's very rational. Ukraine is a good buffer and almost all of Russia's foreign exchange comes from the oil and gas pipelines which run through the country to it's European customers. Russia will not see Ukraine shift westward and it will use military force to keep it that way.