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What will China look like in 30 years?

Started by Queequeg, November 16, 2013, 02:02:06 PM

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What will the People's Republic of China look like in 30 years?

Glass, Precambrian-level microbe activity flourishing despite background radiation (Neil and CDM option).
4 (11.8%)
Neo-Maoist hellhole, Bo Xilai style.
1 (2.9%)
Splintered, competing, independent or semi-independent states and factions.
1 (2.9%)
Similar, CPC dominated, but deep in to middle-income trap.  Declining growth, elite capture of wealth.
12 (35.3%)
Similar, CPC dominated.  Continued growth, instability, Communist Party dominance.
4 (11.8%)
Similar, CPC dominated but more Singapore-ish.  Increasing role of inclusive institutions, relative political liberalism.
5 (14.7%)
End of one-party rule, union with Taiwan, continued growth and prosperity and something resembling Liberal Democracy.
1 (2.9%)
Full-on Liberal Democracy, autonomy for ethnic enclaves, massive Environmental clean-up, lions and lambs partying together.
0 (0%)
Massive China-dominated East Asia Empire, not recognizably authoritarian, basically Yellow Peril nightmare bullshit.
5 (14.7%)
Other
0 (0%)
Jaron
1 (2.9%)

Total Members Voted: 34

Ideologue

Kinemalogue
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Ed Anger

Stay Alive...Let the Man Drive

Warspite

I have some optimism for China because it is a one-party state that has at least managed leadership transitions within its ruling clique; unlike the Arab world, for instance, there's a culture of peaceful political change to some basic extent. So I went with the "looks a bit more like Singapore" option. Perhaps even moving a rittle to the reft... a rittle bit more...
" SIR – I must commend you on some of your recent obituaries. I was delighted to read of the deaths of Foday Sankoh (August 9th), and Uday and Qusay Hussein (July 26th). Do you take requests? "

OVO JE SRBIJA
BUDALO, OVO JE POSTA

Ideologue

Kinemalogue
Current reviews: The 'Burbs (9/10); Gremlins 2: The New Batch (9/10); John Wick: Chapter 2 (9/10); A Cure For Wellness (4/10)

Grinning_Colossus

Middle income trap, but more S'pore-ish and liberal. The Chicom leadership will have realized that the mechanisms of elite reproduction in a capitalist republic are less prone to instability than those of a one-party state, so they'll be slowly shifting in that direction. The middle income trap also won't seem that abnormal, since the First World will have been experiencing similar phenomena for close to four decades.
Quis futuit ipsos fututores?

Admiral Yi

China can't just replicate the Singapore model because China is not as homogeneous as Singapore.  There's no urban/rural divide in Singapore and no real rich/poor divide.

I think the biggest problem for the CP is corruption.  Not because it would be impossible to stamp out, but because if it were stamped out it might be very, very difficult to attract and retain talent in the party, given the opportunity to acquire wealth in the private sector.

Grinning_Colossus

Some people are more interested in power than wealth, and if corruption is stamped out then wealth will be less easily converted into power.
Quis futuit ipsos fututores?

Eddie Teach

Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on November 17, 2013, 03:43:15 PM
Some people are more interested in power than wealth, and if corruption is stamped out then wealth will be less easily converted into power.

But if corruption is stamped out, that also means less power for agents of the government.
To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?

CountDeMoney

LOL, stamping out Chinese corruption, an element of society and government since before the time of Christ.  Easier off stamping out noodles.

Admiral Yi

Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 17, 2013, 04:38:32 PM
LOL, stamping out Chinese corruption, an element of society and government since before the time of Christ.  Easier off stamping out noodles.

I don't think that's true.

Tonitrus

Quote from: Ideologue on November 17, 2013, 12:34:09 AM
I was truly born 30 years too late.

We should do our patriotic duty by trying to draw away even more Chinese women the West.

CountDeMoney

Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 17, 2013, 04:40:55 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 17, 2013, 04:38:32 PM
LOL, stamping out Chinese corruption, an element of society and government since before the time of Christ.  Easier off stamping out noodles.

I don't think that's true.

Institutional corruption is something Chinese bureaucracy and administration of their provinces has had to deal with since the Qin, and it's always been a major theme when it came to reasons for dynastic breakdowns as well as in the post-imperial age. 
It's simply a cultural cornerstone of the Chinese way of doing things, from the Legalists to the Communists.

Neil

Quote from: Tonitrus on November 17, 2013, 06:21:46 PM
Quote from: Ideologue on November 17, 2013, 12:34:09 AM
I was truly born 30 years too late.

We should do our patriotic duty by trying to draw away even more Chinese women the West.
How is encouraging their spies to prey on more stupid Western men patriotic?
I do not hate you, nor do I love you, but you are made out of atoms which I can use for something else.

dps

I'm the only one who voted for option #2, but I gotta say I find option #1 intriguing.

Siege

Quote from: Queequeg on November 16, 2013, 02:02:06 PM
I don't know if I am going to vote, but interested in other people's opinions. 

I'm still waiting for Malthus prophecy of China's decline to happen.
He said it was about to happen like 10 years ago back in Paradox OT.

I, of course, voted for the yellow peril menace. China will continue to grow and eventually become the world sole superpower as we go into decline.



"All men are created equal, then some become infantry."

"Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't."

"Laissez faire et laissez passer, le monde va de lui même!"