What will China look like in 30 years?

[Josquius]

Its in for a rough patch with its population troubles, it will get old before it gets rich.
The CCP breaking their promise to make people rich could mean their downfall. Doubt it'll be to be replaced by a lovely democracy however. Russia looks most likely.

[CountDeMoney]

China's going to have much bigger problems than what the CCP  or their artificial  economy will look like.

"...China will face a growing number of young men who will never marry due to the country's one-child policy, which has resulted in a reported birth ratio of almost 120 boys for every 100 girls...By 2030, projections suggest that more than 25% of Chinese men in their late 30s will never have married. The coming marriage squeeze will likely be even more acute in the Chinese countryside, since the poor, uneducated and rural population will be more likely to lose out in the competition for brides."

http://www.forbes.com/sites/china/2011/05/13/chinas-growing-problem-of-too-many-single-men/

China has a long and extremely bloody history of violent and prolonged peasant revolts and civil wars over the centuries that have fundamentally affected dynastic politics, some of which were predicated by droughts, floods and other natural disasters. 

You think the Yuan and Ming dynasties had problems with civil wars over natural disasters?  Just wait until you have a shitload of peasants that can't find a date.

[Ed Anger]

So ronery.

[Josquius]

You think the Yuan and Ming dynasties had problems with civil wars over natural disasters?  Just wait until you have a shitload of peasants that can't find a date.

I don't think it'll go that far. Its already a big problem for poor men from the countryside to find someone. The crime rate is higher as a result but generally they just mope on with their lives and keep trying.

[CountDeMoney]

I don't think it'll go that far. Its already a big problem for poor men from the countryside to find someone. The crime rate is higher as a result but generally they just mope on with their lives and keep trying.

The same can be said for rubes in Kansas, but never underestimate the impact not getting laid can do for a society, particularly in the numbers they're projecting, please see: Islam, lack of coed ice cream socials in

[Camerus]

China's going to have much bigger problems than what the CCP  or their artificial  economy will look like.

"...China will face a growing number of young men who will never marry due to the country's one-child policy, which has resulted in a reported birth ratio of almost 120 boys for every 100 girls...By 2030, projections suggest that more than 25% of Chinese men in their late 30s will never have married. The coming marriage squeeze will likely be even more acute in the Chinese countryside, since the poor, uneducated and rural population will be more likely to lose out in the competition for brides."

http://www.forbes.com/sites/china/2011/05/13/chinas-growing-problem-of-too-many-single-men/

China has a long and extremely bloody history of violent and prolonged peasant revolts and civil wars over the centuries that have fundamentally affected dynastic politics, some of which were predicated by droughts, floods and other natural disasters. 

You think the Yuan and Ming dynasties had problems with civil wars over natural disasters?  Just wait until you have a shitload of peasants that can't find a date.

It may not be as bad as all that.  There are tons of undocumented girls born in the countryside, and there are whores everywhere in the cities.

[CountDeMoney]

I really wish you people would stop pissing on my Chinapocalypse parade.

[fhdz]

I saw in the paper today that China is reversing its 1-child policy and closing down "re-education" labor camps.

[CountDeMoney]

Too rittle, too rate.

[Phillip V]

Fertile women from other other countries can be imported.

[CountDeMoney]

Oh yeah, because Chinese history has so many great episodes of ethnic harmony.

[Camerus]

Honestly, the one child policy is a bit of a myth anyway.  There are so many exceptions and ways to get around it (including paying a pretty insignificant fine).  I've met tons of people born after '81 with siblings, including one girl who has 8 of them.   

[Ideologue]

The worst thing about it is that it's destroying the only thing the PRC offers the world other than depressed wages and despair, which is the phenotype of its women.

[Jacob]

Coasting along with option 4, a thoroughly corrupt steady state basically; though 30 years being quite a while there is always the possibility of some sort of calamity throwing things off track. I'd say the most likely potential causes of triggering an actual breakdown are:

1 - a power transition getting out of hand with two powerful cliques at odds and refusing to back down.

2 - some sort of foreign policy miscalculation spiraling out of control. It could be over some stupid island, North Korea, a terrorist attack, Taiwan, or something else; but it'd be some sort of tough foreign policy stance for domestic consumption triggering a cycle of nationalist driven escalation.

3 - any kind of domestic grievance trigging the popular imagination; there are so many. Maybe the various security services can keep a lid on things the next thirty years, but it's far from given.

... of course, it could even be a combination of things. But if nothing like that happens, option 4.

[Jacob]

The worst thing about it is that it's destroying the only thing the PRC offers the world other than depressed wages and despair, which is the phenotype of its women.

There are plenty of them left, don't worry.

Apparently Vietnam has way more women than men. You should look into that.