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ECB and Inflation

Started by The Minsky Moment, November 06, 2013, 02:06:33 PM

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MadImmortalMan

Greece had a 25% public sector before this came down. Foisted or not, they had to break that down.
"Stability is destabilizing." --Hyman Minsky

"Complacency can be a self-denying prophecy."
"We have nothing to fear but lack of fear itself." --Larry Summers

Crazy_Ivan80

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on June 30, 2015, 12:27:51 PM

Forcing a country to slash civil servants and reduce compensation is not a great formula for increasing short term bureaucratic performance. 

Greece was incapable of getting the taxes collected even before the amount of civil servants was decreased. They were twiddling with their thumbs before, they were twiddling after.

Belgium is bad when it comes to government-efficiency, but compared to Greece we're Sweden.

"Greeks stop paying taxes in expectation of Syriza poll victory"
(http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b47c6d76-a320-11e4-bbef-00144feab7de.html)
Quote"It's normal for the tax take to decline during an election campaign
->No, it's not normal. It's bad faith, and it's probably the thing that pissed off a great many people -who are paying their taxes, and are often paying far more taxes than the Greeks would if they could be arsed to actually pay- in regards to the Greeks. The Syriza-shenanigans only made it worse afterwards.

The Minsky Moment

Quote from: MadImmortalMan on June 30, 2015, 01:25:43 PM
Greece had a 25% public sector before this came down. Foisted or not, they had to break that down.

A country that fires a huge swath of its national workforce in a few years is going to have serious problems.

A country that cuts a huge swath of its national workforce in a few years, while in the middle of global financial crisis, with zero control over monetary policy, and with no possibility of currency adjustment is utterly and completely screwed.

Predictable.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Admiral Yi

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on June 30, 2015, 01:58:44 PM
A country that cuts a huge swath of its national workforce in a few years, while in the middle of global financial crisis, with zero control over monetary policy, and with no possibility of currency adjustment is utterly and completely screwed.

And from this we can reach the conclusion that Germany should have paid Greece's payroll for a couple years?  Forever?

Razgovory

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on June 30, 2015, 02:02:07 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on June 29, 2015, 04:50:27 PM
No Eurozone underwent as much austerity as Greece.  So what's the message that gets sent when doing that ends in rejection and failure?

Greece apparently has 60 billion of uncollected taxes to collect. So what's the message that gets sent when you come leeching of other people's money and then calling them names when you don't get your way when you still have lots of taxes to collect but refuse to do so?

Hey, that reminds me, on the topic of leeching is Belgium meeting the required 2% military spending for NATO?
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Monoriu

Every time people tell me Greece has cut its pension system deeply, I can't help but remember that HK does not have a public pension system at all.  I have a pension but that's a job benefit; it is not a public pension.  We let our poor seniors go through trash to look for food, and we have huge budget surpluses. 

Valmy

QuoteHey, that reminds me, on the topic of leeching is Belgium meeting the required 2% military spending for NATO?

Are you suggesting we kick everybody who leeches out of NATO? Wait actually that is a great idea. Spend 2% or GTFO.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

Duque de Bragança

#622
Quote from: Valmy on June 30, 2015, 02:45:45 PM
QuoteHey, that reminds me, on the topic of leeching is Belgium meeting the required 2% military spending for NATO?

Are you suggesting we kick everybody who leeches out of NATO? Wait actually that is a great idea. Spend 2% or GTFO.

That's the way Greece would stay without cooking the books  :smarty:
France reaches that level as well but most members do not.  :frog:

Admiral Yi

Quote from: Valmy on June 30, 2015, 02:45:45 PM
Are you suggesting we kick everybody who leeches out of NATO? Wait actually that is a great idea. Spend 2% or GTFO.

He's suggesting Ivan has no standing to criticize Greece.

Razgovory

Quote from: Valmy on June 30, 2015, 02:45:45 PM
QuoteHey, that reminds me, on the topic of leeching is Belgium meeting the required 2% military spending for NATO?

Are you suggesting we kick everybody who leeches out of NATO? Wait actually that is a great idea. Spend 2% or GTFO.

Well, not out, just in the balls occasionally.  Interestingly the Greeks are paying their 2%.  Belgium is not even paying half that, coasting along on the coat tails of small handful of more responsible countries.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Valmy

Quote from: Duque de Bragança on June 30, 2015, 02:48:18 PM
That's the way Greece would stay without cooking the books  :smarty:
France reaches that level as well but most member do not.  :frog:

Even the UK is about to slip under 2% soon. FOR SHAME.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

crazy canuck

#626
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on June 30, 2015, 01:25:43 PM
Greece had a 25% public sector before this came down. Foisted or not, they had to break that down.

Sure but over time.  It took Canada something like 15 years to put our financial house in order and that was during generally good economic times and a low dollar. Greece has been asked to implement significant austerity measures during terrible economic times and while being bound to an expensive currency.  How did anyone expect this to end up any other way?

Monoriu

Quote from: crazy canuck on June 30, 2015, 04:08:23 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on June 30, 2015, 01:25:43 PM
Greece had a 25% public sector before this came down. Foisted or not, they had to break that down.

Sure but over time.  It took Canada something like 15 years to put our financial house in order and that was during generally good economic times and a low dollar. Greece has been asked to implement significant austerity measures during terrible economic times and while being bound to an expensive currency.  How did anyone expect this to end up any other way?



HK also was in significant trouble in 2003 or so.  There was a big hole in the public finances.  Unemployment went up 2-3 times.  Real estate prices dropped by 60-70%, and a large chunk of the mortgages went under.  We don't have any control over our monetary policy either.  The HK dollar is pegged to the US dollar, and our interest rates were therefore decided by Mr Alan Greenspan, and nobody expects him to take into consideration HK's needs when deciding the rates. 

Civil service pay were cut many times.  Civil servants were let go.  The HK government sold assets in fire sales.  Fun times.  No public pension, no unemployment insurance, no help for homeowners, no change in the mortage terms, and the peg to the US dollar was maintained.  We raised taxes and cut spending, and endured a few years of 5% deflation. Fixing the public finances was top priority.  Nothing else mattered.  Everything else was sacrificed.  We just told the masses to fuck off, despite huge street protests of half a million. 

It took us less than 5 years.  It could be done.  Provided that the necessary sacrifices were made. 

Admiral Yi

Wasnt that when George Soros attacked the peg?

Monoriu

Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 30, 2015, 04:45:08 PM
Wasnt that when George Soros attacked the peg?

That was in 98, not 03.