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ECB and Inflation

Started by The Minsky Moment, November 06, 2013, 02:06:33 PM

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The Brain

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 12, 2013, 06:33:20 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on November 12, 2013, 06:25:10 PM
Taxing land would wreck social security pensioners. Poor retired people vote, so that's not going to happen.

Exempt the first 1/4 acre.

And the first 1/160th of a mule?
Women want me. Men want to be with me.

Sheilbh

Quote from: Zanza on November 13, 2013, 03:47:39 PM
They actually proposed any policies in that borefest? I can't be bothered to follow anymore.
Question for you. How does government work during coalition negotiations? Are the FDP ministers still ministers even though they've lost all their seats?
Let's bomb Russia!

The Minsky Moment

Quote from: Zanza on November 13, 2013, 01:48:08 PM
There are again calls that Germany should lessen its trade surplus/current account surplus. I always wonder what kind of policies the government could actually enact to achieve that.

Inflation.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Zanza

Quote from: Sheilbh on November 13, 2013, 03:55:48 PM
Question for you. How does government work during coalition negotiations? Are the FDP ministers still ministers even though they've lost all their seats?
Yes, the government is only "acting" since the new parliament constituted itself. One of the lessons of the Weimar Republic was that Germany should always have a government without interruption. So all of them serve until their successor is sworn in.

Zanza

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 13, 2013, 03:56:00 PM
Quote from: Zanza on November 13, 2013, 01:48:08 PM
There are again calls that Germany should lessen its trade surplus/current account surplus. I always wonder what kind of policies the government could actually enact to achieve that.

Inflation.
Can that be created by fiscal policy? The German government has only indirect influence on monetary policy.

Sheilbh

Quote from: Zanza on November 13, 2013, 03:58:02 PM
Yes, the government is only "acting" since the new parliament constituted itself. One of the lessons of the Weimar Republic was that Germany should always have a government without interruption. So all of them serve until their successor is sworn in.
Same in the UK then. Is it, like in the UK, under a 'purdah' so very limited in what it can do?
Let's bomb Russia!

Admiral Yi

Quote from: Zanza on November 13, 2013, 04:00:47 PM
Can that be created by fiscal policy? The German government has only indirect influence on monetary policy.

I suspect Joan is being facetious. 

The Minsky Moment

Quote from: Zanza on November 13, 2013, 04:00:47 PM
Can that be created by fiscal policy? The German government has only indirect influence on monetary policy.

Not really if you are in a fiscal union as you say,
But Germany does happen to have a relatively corporatist wage bargaining regime.
My impression is that since Shroeder, the government has tended to put its thumb on the wage restraint end of the scale.  If social and administrative pressure pushed the other way, that could have an effect.
But politically I don't see it happening.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Zanza

QuotePurdah or pardah (from Persian : پرده, meaning "curtain") is a religious and social institution of female seclusion observed by some women in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Northern India . More simply, it is the practice of preventing men from seeing women. This takes two forms: physical segregation of the sexes and the requirement that women cover their bodies so as to cover their skin and conceal their form.
Hmm, I am pretty sure Merkel is still allowed to meet her male ministers. So I have no idea what "purdah" means in this context.

I don't think the government is limited in its activities. Parliament will probably not pass any new laws until the coalition talks are concluded though, so the government can only administrate, not actively set policy anymore.

Zanza

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 13, 2013, 04:14:22 PMBut Germany does happen to have a relatively corporatist wage bargaining regime.
Yes. That's even specifically protected in our constitution.

QuoteMy impression is that since Shroeder, the government has tended to put its thumb on the wage restraint end of the scale.  If social and administrative pressure pushed the other way, that could have an effect.
But politically I don't see it happening.
That was definitely the case under Schröder, but I would say it has since been adopted by the unions too. They are more interested in equality, meaning getting better conditions for temporary workers at the low-end of the wage scale. And they'll regularly trade higher wage increases for more job security.
And skilled labor in Germany is already fairly well paid by all international standards. It's really the lower end of the job market and that's where the corporatist model often fails as the lower end of the job market is not organized into unions and has very little bargaining power against the still corporatist employers.
Germany will likely introduce a kind of minimum wage soon, so that will at least support the very worst paid employees.

Sheilbh

Quote from: Zanza on November 13, 2013, 04:15:35 PMHmm, I am pretty sure Merkel is still allowed to meet her male ministers. So I have no idea what "purdah" means in this context.
QuotePurdah is the pre-election period in the United Kingdom, specifically the time between an announced election and the final election results.[1] The time period offers a prior opportunity for government departments to develop guidance and policy due to any impact resulting from the election. It also prevents central and local government departments from making announcements about any new or controversial government initiatives (such as modernisation initiatives, administrative and legislative changes) which could be seen to be advantageous to any candidates or parties in the forthcoming election, or which may commit any incoming new administration to policies which it wouldn't support.
...
Purdah does not have actual legal force, rather is considered a 'self-denying ordinance', and has considerable moral authority; because of the lack of statute different local authorities adopt different standards as to the extent to which they observe the convention,[6] and authorities are always mindful of the possibility of results and decisions being open to challenge in the event of a breach of purdah. When local elections are being held at the same time as a general election a higher standard is usually applied.[7]

At the national level, major decisions on policy are postponed until after the purdah period, unless it is in the national interest to proceed or a delay would waste public money. The Cabinet Office issues guidance before each election to civil servants, including those in the devolved national parliaments and assemblies.[1] Purdah also continues after the election during the time in which new MPs and ministers are sworn in. In the event of an inconclusive election result, purdah does not end until a new government forms. When no party has an overall majority, it may take some time before a minority or coalition government is formed.
Let's bomb Russia!

Zanza

Hmm, no, I don't think our political culture really knows that concept. Our legislative periods are typically of fixed length so the concept of announcing an election is not really relevant as we already know the next election will be in 46-48 months after the last one.
Our local authorities are state governments that have their own democratic legitimization and don't adhere to the federal legislative cycle and will make whatever policy decision they want - certainly trying to favor their federal candidates. The civil service is expected to be impartial anyway and doesn't get any specific political guidance as far as I know.


Barrister

Quote from: Sheilbh on November 13, 2013, 04:28:49 PM
Quote from: Zanza on November 13, 2013, 04:15:35 PMHmm, I am pretty sure Merkel is still allowed to meet her male ministers. So I have no idea what "purdah" means in this context.
QuotePurdah is the pre-election period in the United Kingdom, specifically the time between an announced election and the final election results.[1] The time period offers a prior opportunity for government departments to develop guidance and policy due to any impact resulting from the election. It also prevents central and local government departments from making announcements about any new or controversial government initiatives (such as modernisation initiatives, administrative and legislative changes) which could be seen to be advantageous to any candidates or parties in the forthcoming election, or which may commit any incoming new administration to policies which it wouldn't support.
...
Purdah does not have actual legal force, rather is considered a 'self-denying ordinance', and has considerable moral authority; because of the lack of statute different local authorities adopt different standards as to the extent to which they observe the convention,[6] and authorities are always mindful of the possibility of results and decisions being open to challenge in the event of a breach of purdah. When local elections are being held at the same time as a general election a higher standard is usually applied.[7]

At the national level, major decisions on policy are postponed until after the purdah period, unless it is in the national interest to proceed or a delay would waste public money. The Cabinet Office issues guidance before each election to civil servants, including those in the devolved national parliaments and assemblies.[1] Purdah also continues after the election during the time in which new MPs and ministers are sworn in. In the event of an inconclusive election result, purdah does not end until a new government forms. When no party has an overall majority, it may take some time before a minority or coalition government is formed.

While the concept is entirely familiar to me, the term "purbah" is not.  Is it a fairly recent term?
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

Sheilbh

I don't think so, it's not terribly politically correct if so. I think it dates back to Empire given that it's an Indian term.
Let's bomb Russia!

Gups

It's a Islamic term - it just means "curtain" in Persian.

Not sure how long it's been used in British politics. Ceratinly since the 70s, perhaps much longer. It's much more than Shelibh's quote implies. It's not just that there is a break in policy making, it requires a clear separation between political parties and government (central and local) machinery.