CSI Venezuela

[derspiess]

I would prefer if the US simply stays out of this.  The people of Venezuela created this mess, it's up to them to fix it.  Hopefully that will come soon.  On the other hand, if Maduro is overthrown the US shouldbecome involved.  Food Aid, loans, technical assistance, etc.  There is nothing wrong with a helping hand to people who genuinely want it and need it.

In short the US should be a good neighbor.

What are your thoughts on actions we've taken so far?  Should we have continued to recognize Maduro as prez?

Eh, I'm fine with it.

Fine with actions we've taken thus far, or fine with continuing to recognize Maduro?

[derspiess]

I would prefer if the US simply stays out of this.  The people of Venezuela created this mess, it's up to them to fix it.  Hopefully that will come soon.  On the other hand, if Maduro is overthrown the US shouldbecome involved.  Food Aid, loans, technical assistance, etc.  There is nothing wrong with a helping hand to people who genuinely want it and need it.

In short the US should be a good neighbor.

What are your thoughts on actions we've taken so far?  Should we have continued to recognize Maduro as prez?

As much as I despise that communist asshatery going on there, recognising some random dude declaring himself President seems like a bit of a desperate move. Covertly arming rebels should have been the way to go.

He's not some random dude.

What's the legitimacy of his claim?

He's the president of the National Assembly.  Per the 1999 constitution, the president of the National Assembly becomes the interim president if there is no legitimate president.  Maduro is arguably not legitimate, per his shenanigans with the 2018 election.

FWIW, the OAS and most of the Western Hemisphere recognize Guaidó.  The EU isn't specifically recognizing him but is recognizing the legitimacy of the National Assembly.

I am still thinking through my own opinion on this whole thing.  I think I'm in favor of recognizing Guaidó given how many others have done so, but where do we go from here?

[Tamas]

I would prefer if the US simply stays out of this.  The people of Venezuela created this mess, it's up to them to fix it.  Hopefully that will come soon.  On the other hand, if Maduro is overthrown the US shouldbecome involved.  Food Aid, loans, technical assistance, etc.  There is nothing wrong with a helping hand to people who genuinely want it and need it.

In short the US should be a good neighbor.

What are your thoughts on actions we've taken so far?  Should we have continued to recognize Maduro as prez?

As much as I despise that communist asshatery going on there, recognising some random dude declaring himself President seems like a bit of a desperate move. Covertly arming rebels should have been the way to go.

He's not some random dude.

What's the legitimacy of his claim?

He's the president of the National Assembly.  Per the 1999 constitution, the president of the National Assembly becomes the interim president if there is no legitimate president.  Maduro is arguably not legitimate, per his shenanigans with the 2018 election.

FWIW, the OAS and most of the Western Hemisphere recognize Guaidó.  The EU isn't specifically recognizing him but is recognizing the legitimacy of the National Assembly.

I am still thinking through my own opinion on this whole thing.  I think I'm in favor of recognizing Guaidó given how many others have done so, but where do we go from here?

Ah, I did not know that. Thanks.

[Valmy]

I think I'm in favor of recognizing Guaidó given how many others have done so, but where do we go from here?

That is my question on the matter. I mean we have recognized him and as the dominant power in the area doesn't that compel us to support him directly in someway? Otherwise if we just sit by and watching him fall after recognizing him that would make us look like fools.

[Admiral Yi]

I think we start flipping military commanders.

[derspiess]

Ah, I did not know that. Thanks.

There's a lot to this.  Honestly it caught me off-guard so I'm having to re-acquaint myself with a lot of it.

IMO what we're seeing now is really a continuation of what started in 2017-- Maduro didn't like the National Assembly opposing him so he created a new "Constituent Assembly" stacked with syncophants chosen (not elected) by government leaders and "workers collectives" at various levels.  Although opposed by 70-75% of Venezuelans, this new body stripped most of the powers away from the National Assembly.  Most of the Western world continued to recognize the National Assembly as the legitimate body.

Maduro 'won' re-election last year, but only after disqualifying all his major opponents from running, plus other 'irregularities'.  He was sworn in for his second term 15 days ago, with the National Assembly disputing his legitimacy and thereby making Guaidó the interim president, at least in the eyes of the National Assembly and many Venezuelans.

So while I'm generally non-interventionist these days, I think the US and other countries made the right call in recognizing Guaidó.  Continuing to recognize Maduro actually would have been a pretty major policy shift, and one in the wrong direction IMO.

[derspiess]

I think we start flipping military commanders.

Easier said than done.  From what I understand, the major military leaders all have "minders" assigned to them by the regime.  These minders report on any hints of disloyalty.  And there are implicit threats to the leaders' families if they flip.  These guys are were all hand-picked based on loyalty to begin with.

I guess it would be easier to go after mid-level leadership, but you have a lot more people you have to flip. 

[Admiral Yi]

Easier said than done.

Well duh.  But it's a better approach than invading or making heartfelt speeches.

[derspiess]

That is my question on the matter. I mean we have recognized him and as the dominant power in the area doesn't that compel us to support him directly in someway? Otherwise if we just sit by and watching him fall after recognizing him that would make us look like fools.

Diplomatically, I think we have three options:

*Keep our diplomats there an have them do nothing for the time being

*Keep our diplomats there and have our Chargé d'Affaires present his credentials to Guaidó

*Withdraw all our diplomats and wait


I see where we have already withdrawn *some* of our diplomatic staff today.  I would be a little surprised if we withdrew the rest.  That would probably be seen as backing down.  But if we keep some there, there's a good chance they'll be arrested or worse.  Which would in turn give us a pretext to intervene.

[derspiess]

Easier said than done.

Well duh.  But it's a better approach than invading or making heartfelt speeches.

My guess is we've already been trying.  Is there any point at which you would support intervention?

[Barrister]

I think I'm in favor of recognizing Guaidó given how many others have done so, but where do we go from here?

That is my question on the matter. I mean we have recognized him and as the dominant power in the area doesn't that compel us to support him directly in someway? Otherwise if we just sit by and watching him fall after recognizing him that would make us look like fools.

Not necessarily.  The US never recognized the Soviet annexation of the Baltic states, for example.  That didn't mean that they did much about it.

[Valmy]

I think I'm in favor of recognizing Guaidó given how many others have done so, but where do we go from here?

That is my question on the matter. I mean we have recognized him and as the dominant power in the area doesn't that compel us to support him directly in someway? Otherwise if we just sit by and watching him fall after recognizing him that would make us look like fools.

Not necessarily.  The US never recognized the Soviet annexation of the Baltic states, for example.  That didn't mean that they did much about it.

That is different. The Soviets were a great power and the Baltic States were in their sphere. That is different than something going on in your backyard. Also the US place in the world in 1940 was a little different than in 2019.

[Admiral Yi]

Is there any point at which you would support intervention?

An Iraq I scenario.  Overwhelming international support, other countries doing serious heavy lifting.  Someone else picks up the tab for clean up.

[derspiess]

Knowing us, we'll intervene, do all the heavy lifting, and then let the Euros pick up the fat oil contracts

[Razgovory]

I would prefer if the US simply stays out of this.  The people of Venezuela created this mess, it's up to them to fix it.  Hopefully that will come soon.  On the other hand, if Maduro is overthrown the US shouldbecome involved.  Food Aid, loans, technical assistance, etc.  There is nothing wrong with a helping hand to people who genuinely want it and need it.

In short the US should be a good neighbor.

What are your thoughts on actions we've taken so far?  Should we have continued to recognize Maduro as prez?

Eh, I'm fine with it.

Fine with actions we've taken thus far, or fine with continuing to recognize Maduro?

I'm fine with the actions taken thus far, and previous toleration of Chavez/Maduro in the past.  Before there was little we could do.  Now there is a real chance of Maduro being thrown out, making some sort of symbolic act like recognizing the dissenters is fine as well.

What I'm not fine with is Military or CIA actions to actively bring down the regime.  That tends to alienate our Latin American allies and would probably make matters worse.

Venezula is like a friend who has become addicted to cocaine or some other addictive drug.  The drug is destroying him, but you can't force him to stop.  All you can do is give him counsel.  When he finally decides to quit you lend him as much support as possible.