CSI Venezuela

[Tonitrus]

I think I'm in favor of recognizing Guaidó given how many others have done so, but where do we go from here?

That is my question on the matter. I mean we have recognized him and as the dominant power in the area doesn't that compel us to support him directly in someway? Otherwise if we just sit by and watching him fall after recognizing him that would make us look like fools.

Not necessarily.  The US never recognized the Soviet annexation of the Baltic states, for example.  That didn't mean that they did much about it.

You could go more recent with the Crimea.  We'll probably never recognize the annexation, and we'll never help Ukraine get it back, because Russia will likely go WW3 over it at this point.

[FunkMonk]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-russia-exclusive/exclusive-kremlin-linked-contractors-help-guard-venezuelas-maduro-sources-idUSKCN1PJ22M

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Private military contractors who do secret missions for Russia flew into Venezuela in the past few days to beef up security for President Nicolas Maduro in the face of U.S.-backed opposition protests, according to two people close to them.

Intervention lol

[Valmy]

Ok that is just sad. I guess they think this is revenge for Ukraine.

[celedhring]

Spain has issued an ultimatum to Maduro to call for an election in 8 days, or we'll recognize the new fella.

I assume this will be the agreed-upon EU position.

[derspiess]

Good enough!

[celedhring]

Tbf I still can't see a reason why Maduro would back down unless he sees a Nimitz from his balcony.

I hope I'm wrong and this doesn't turn into an even worse mess than the one Venezuelans are already in.

[Eddie Teach]

Nothing like a war to give a quick boost to Presidential approval ratings. 

[OttoVonBismarck]

Russia can fly a few teams in, but this isn't Eastern Europe or even the Middle East, they lack the capacity to easily get enough resources to Maduro to counter a collapse situation. Maduro's control of the military is already reportedly pretty shaky.

We definitely don't want to fight a real war in Venezuela, but due to the fact the country will soon probably complete stop functioning and the remnants of their oil industry are likely to get even worse, Maduro could be on his way out regardless. There's precedent for us using light military force to help an already failed South/Latin American regime fall all the way, without lingering commitments. I'd be fine with it if it went that way, but I think there's a decent chance Maduro is unable to hold on regardless.

I don't anticipate he will fuck with our diplo staff we're leaving at the embassy. Doing that puts more serious military action on the table since we can't easily tolerate that as a great power.

[derspiess]

I hope im wrong, but I don't see Maduro or the PUSV leaving power without a lot of fighting. Even if the opposition somehow flips a lot of the military, there will still be the militia and colectivos to subdue.

[celedhring]

 

[derspiess]

Intentional?

[celedhring]

Spain will probably recognize the guy that was hailed as Augustus appointed himself as temporary president tomorrow. Maduro has threatened to recognize the Catalan Republic as a reprisal. 

[derspiess]

The US and Canada pledged humanitarian aid to Venezuela.  So what does Maduro do?  He has the Venezuelan National Guard barricade a bridge near the border crossing where the aid was supposed to have come through

https://apnews.com/011ef02872f5452e8114116573c9cd4c

[Habbaku]

 

[Habbaku]

Nothing to see here!

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-portugal/portuguese-bank-halted-12-billion-transfer-of-venezuela-funds-lawmaker-idUSKCN1PU23S

Portuguese bank halted $1.2 billion transfer of Venezuela funds: lawmaker

CARACAS (Reuters) - Portugal-based Novo Banco halted a transfer of $1.2 billion by the government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to banks in Uruguay, a Venezuelan legislator said on Tuesday, a day after the opposition denounced what they called the theft of public funds.

Opposition leader Juan Guaido, who most European and Western Hemisphere nations have recognized as the country's legitimate leader, said on Monday that authorities were trying to move up to $1.2 billion to banks in Uruguay.

Countries around the world are pressuring Maduro to resign amid a hyperinflationary economic crisis that has led millions to emigrate. His adversaries warn that officials are seeking to drain state coffers ahead of a potential change of government.

"They attempted to move Venezuelan government financial assets in Novo Banco in Portugal worth some $1.2 billion toward Uruguayan banks," said legislator Carlos Paparoni during a congressional session on Tuesday.

"I'm pleased to inform the Venezuelan people that this transaction has until now been halted, protecting the resources of all Venezuelans."

Venezuela's Information Ministry, which handles all media inquiries, did not immediately respond to a request to comment.

Lisbon-based Novo Banco, which is 75 percent-owned by U.S. private equity firm Lone Star Funds, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Major European nations joined the United States on Monday in recognizing Guaido, while members of an Americas regional bloc kept up the pressure on socialist Maduro.