Debt Ceiling & Default - what's going to happen?

[Jacob]

So... the deadline approaches. How do you think it will play out?

And if a fix is finally offered - will there be some sort of compromise, will the Republicans back down, or will Obama?

[Admiral Yi]

Republicans don't have much posturing to back down from, but I predict they will pass an increase with no strings attached.

[Jacob]

Republicans don't have much posturing to back down from, but I predict they will pass an increase with no strings attached.

That's reassuring

[Barrister]

I predict the Republicans re-open the government / raise the debt ceiling at the 11th hour.  Despite his vow to "not negotiate" Obama will give them a very tiny figleaf to claim some kind of victory, butit will essentially be with no strings attached.

[Darth Wagtaros]

Some half-ass 'compromise' at the 11th hour that legislatively post-pones the problem until the next Congress.

[DGuller]

I'm not that optimistic.  I have a feeling that things will get worse before they get better when it comes to the bitter partisan divide.  This game of chicken is bound to end with a tie some time, and only after that there is a possibility of insanity washing away.  Now is probably the likeliest time for that moment to happen.

[mongers]

I'm not that optimistic.  I have a feeling that things will get worse before they get better when it comes to the bitter partisan divide.  This game of chicken is bound to end with a tie some time, and only after that there is a possibility of insanity washing away.  Now is probably the likeliest time for that moment to happen.

This sounds like you itching to make a bet with someone like Yi on this matter ? 

[DGuller]

I'm not that optimistic.  I have a feeling that things will get worse before they get better when it comes to the bitter partisan divide.  This game of chicken is bound to end with a tie some time, and only after that there is a possibility of insanity washing away.  Now is probably the likeliest time for that moment to happen.

This sounds like you itching to make a bet with someone like Yi on this matter ? 

I'll pass.  At the root of this question is insanity, and insanity tends to be unpredictable and not quantifiable.  Not only that, but bets on events like this have to be conducted in foreign currency or gold, and that's too much PITA.

[The Brain]

and insanity tends to be unpredictable

Hardly. If so Languish would be bearable.

[MadImmortalMan]

Some half-ass 'compromise' at the 11th hour that legislatively post-pones the problem until the next Congress.

This one.


Whatever happens, though, there will not be a default. The only people saying that are wingnuts and goldbugs.

[Jacob]

Whatever happens, though, there will not be a default. The only people saying that are wingnuts and goldbugs.

Are you saying that failing to raise the debt ceiling will not result in a default, even a partial one (whatever that means)? Or are you saying that while the present course could theoretically trigger a default, that will not be allowed to happen in spite of all the political theatrics?

[MadImmortalMan]

Whatever happens, though, there will not be a default. The only people saying that are wingnuts and goldbugs.

Are you saying that failing to raise the debt ceiling will not result in a default, even a partial one (whatever that means)? Or are you saying that while the present course could theoretically trigger a default, that will not be allowed to happen in spite of all the political theatrics?

Yes to both.

Edit: To clarify---Failing to raise the debt ceiling will prevent them getting additional loans. That does not cause default. If there were a situation where a default could potentially be triggered, steps would be taken to prevent it that are more bureaucratic in nature and not necessarily subject to direct intervention by Obama or the Congress. Default is almost always a decision. If it happens, it will be because our government decided to do it. They won't.

[Jacob]

Yes to both.

So it's basically inconceivable! Current path and failing to raise the debt ceiling will not trigger a default, and if it was going to they'd stop it before it was too late. Fair enough.

So in your view all the default discussion is essentially political posturing rather than an accurate description of possible consequences?

[MadImmortalMan]

So in your view all the default discussion is essentially political posturing rather than an accurate description of possible consequences?

Yep.

[Ed Anger]

As a Kentucky Colonel, I plan to take advantage of the anarchy and enslave Cal.