The Government Shutdown Countdown Lowdown MEGATHREAD

[Admiral Yi]

So what's the skinny on the on topic?  Did the House pass a clean CR and lift the debt ceiling?

[FunkMonk]

Boehner admitted defeat and said he'll let the Senate bill onto the House floor. Cruz said he won't delay the Senate's proceedings.

Funds the government until Jan 15 and raises the debt ceiling until Feb 7.

[mongers]

So about 3 months respite on each issue.   

[Sheilbh]

Apparently Democrats are happy because it's a longer debt ceiling increase than they expected and the CR goes until just before the next round of sequestration cuts start.

[citizen k]

So about 3 months respite on each issue.   

That's three more months of Spam and ammo accumulation.

[Admiral Yi]

Apparently Democrats are happy because it's a longer debt ceiling increase than they expected and the CR goes until just before the next round of sequestration cuts start.

What's the relevance of the next round of sequestration cuts?

And how do rounds work?

[Razgovory]

I wonder if the GOP learned it's lesson and will stop doing this.

[Sheilbh]

And how do rounds work?

Sequestration cuts, I think, $1.2 trillion of spending over ten years. The cuts are made, I think, every six months. So over 2014 there's another $85 billion worth of cuts, of which half will take effect February 1.

What's the relevance of the next round of sequestration cuts?

Because it means the starting point for negotiations will be spending at the current level. So one concession the Democrats can make, or something they'd want to be preserved, is to cancel the sequestration of February 1. A clean CR - as with this one - would preserve the cuts.

This is part of the reason the Democrats didn't end up backing Susan Collins bipartisan plan - the CR would've gone past the next sequestration round so those cuts would've been a fait accompli.

[Sheilbh]

The three previous religious and moralist awakenings were broken by the revolutionary war, the civil war and ww2. Wonder what will release the tension this time?

It's odd. I think a lot of the best ideas in the GOP are coming from the populist right and I think their sympathies are right. But they've just got this extremist, self-harming style that's unbelievable. It's very frustrating to see.

I think they'll either end up nominating someone completely unelectable like Cruz and suffering such a smashing defeat that the establishment is able to crush them (let's go back to safe, reliable candidates like Dole, the Bushes and Romney). Or they'll find someone who can get the best of their energy and their ideas but temper the madness (maybe Paul? ) a bit like Obama was able to use the anti-war left without becoming another Dean.

[Viking]

The three previous religious and moralist awakenings were broken by the revolutionary war, the civil war and ww2. Wonder what will release the tension this time?

It's odd. I think a lot of the best ideas in the GOP are coming from the populist right and I think their sympathies are right. But they've just got this extremist, self-harming style that's unbelievable. It's very frustrating to see.

I think they'll either end up nominating someone completely unelectable like Cruz and suffering such a smashing defeat that the establishment is able to crush them (let's go back to safe, reliable candidates like Dole, the Bushes and Romney). Or they'll find someone who can get the best of their energy and their ideas but temper the madness (maybe Paul? ) a bit like Obama was able to use the anti-war left without becoming another Dean.

They already did that with goldwater, and that didn't seem to get them anything. The lesson there wasn't these policies are stupid, the lesson was we need to get a better communicator. 

[Sheilbh]

They already did that with goldwater, and that didn't seem to get them anything. The lesson there wasn't these policies are stupid, the lesson was we need to get a better communicator.

What do you mean?

The Republican view is that they did that with Goldwater and it got them Reagan. Goldwater is the Prometheus of modern movement conservatism.

[Queequeg]

What are the positive impulses of the Populist Right? 

[Viking]

They already did that with goldwater, and that didn't seem to get them anything. The lesson there wasn't these policies are stupid, the lesson was we need to get a better communicator.

What do you mean?

The Republican view is that they did that with Goldwater and it got them Reagan. Goldwater is the Prometheus of modern movement conservatism.

Yeah, that's the point. I'm saying they won't react to a crazy loser candidate by thinking, hey maybe we need different ideas. They'll think they just need a better candidate.

[Admiral Yi]

What are the positive impulses of the Populist Right?

Less money for deadbeats, less money for pointy headed art, lower taxes, etc.

Shelf: I still don't get it.  Dumb it down a bit for me.

[Sheilbh]

What are the positive impulses of the Populist Right?

Some of it's about attitude. The conservative right nixed the medical device tax because they didn't think they could sell it to their constituencies because it's 'crony capitalism'. The tax is probably a bad idea, and there's enough Democrats to abolish it anyway, but I think it'd be a good thing for Republicans to be more hostile to crony capitalism.

This is especially the case when the Democrats could, with a little bit of effort, become the party of big business - a nationwide Cuomo-style affair. As that's not implausible it's a good thing if the Republicans are there shouting about big government, big business, crooked deals and corporatism.

On a related note, but with a good policy, DeMint and Heritage are entirely right on farm subsidies. The Republican establishment is entirely wrong. Similarly I think it makes sense to focus on fighting Obamacare rather than the establishment Holy Grail of cutting benefits to old people.

Rand Paul oscillates from sublime to ridiculous. He's calling for reforms to felon voting restrictions, to sentencing guidelines and to and drug policy. He's also prompted a useful debate - though I disagree with him - on civil liberties and on foreign policy. Even Mike Lee's proposed a new Republican tax policy that, from what I can see, would mainly cut taxes for families rather than millionaires which is progress. Similarly Vitter's got proposals on 'too big to fail' banks which I find quite attractive.

What's the establishment Republican party got? Tax cuts for millionaires, cuts to the benefits of the elderly, cosiness with big business and Karl Rove.

I know which side I'm on in that fight. I just hope that eventually the Tea Partiers realise too and stop self-destructing.

Yeah, that's the point. I'm saying they won't react to a crazy loser candidate by thinking, hey maybe we need different ideas. They'll think they just need a better candidate.

I think it's a slight myth by Republicans though. They went through Nixon and Ford and a very moderate Republican party before they moved to Reagan - even then after the traumas of Carter. The response to Goldwater wasn't to support another extreme candidate, but to move to the centre.

As I say I'm not sure that'd be best because I actually think the diagnosis of many on the Tea Party right is pretty acute. I just don't think their solutions or politics are yet.