The Government Shutdown Countdown Lowdown MEGATHREAD

[Grey Fox]

My cousin & her 3 kids got on the wrong flight back in the early 2000s. After 9/11.

4 people wrong plane. From Miami to Montreal, they actually got on a flight to Detroit.

I'm sure someone got fired after that one.

[merithyn]

It's from Slate, so take it as you will, but I thought it was pretty on-point. It actually does a good job of explaining my frustration with the Democratic party over the last few years.

t's easy to forget, but this year began with a nick-of-time congressional compromise. At the 11th hour, with Washington's supply of clichés nearly depleted, the House and Senate approved a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff. The Bush tax cuts were extended for households making less than $400,000, a minor disappointment for both parties. The payroll tax holiday ended, also pleasing no one.

But the system worked, sort of, in its doddering way. It worked when 172 House Democrats voted with 85 Republicans, bailing out House Speaker John Boehner, whose "Plan B" Republicans-only plan had been torn apart by House conservatives. It had worked in 2011, when Democrats helped put the Budget Control Act over the top. It worked a few more times this year—for example, when every Democrat joined with a rump of 89 House Republicans to reauthorize the Violence Against Women Act. Democrats would bend when the GOP refused to.

Not anymore. House Democrats, powerless as they are, provided the GOP almost no cover in the early stages of the shutdown fight. Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy declared a "bipartisan vote" for the defunding of Obamacare and asked reporters to "write that down." Reporters judiciously decided not to pretend that two Democratic votes from deep-red districts meant that the GOP had bipartisan support. Few Democrats backed the next round of Republican-proposed continuing resolutions. Only at the end of this week, when the GOP retreated to a plan of poll-tested "mini-CRs" to fund veterans' pensions and treatment for kids with cancer, did dozens of Democrats start to vote with them. Right after they did so, they endorsed their leadership's demand for a "clean CR" to be brought to the floor by force.

The intransigence of Democrats, from Obama on down to red-state senators, has surprised the GOP. They honestly expected a few of the Democrats to crack—after all, four of them are running for re-election in states that voted for Mitt Romney. "If you're a Mark Pryor," said Ted Cruz last week, "if you're a Mary Landrieu, running for re-election in Arkansas and Louisiana, and you start to get 5,000, 10,000, 20,000, 50,000, calls from your constituents, suddenly, it changes the calculus entirely."

Landrieu and Pryor never buckled. They voted with the rest of the party to amend or table every House bill. So did Alaska Sen. Mark Begich and North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan. So did West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, a moderate who's not on the ballot again until 2018 but who's on the record willing to delay the health insurance mandate. "This is about funding the government," Manchin told me after one of his votes this week. "This isn't about social issues."

Why do they stick with Majority Leader Harry Reid—why, when three of them could cast "safe" no votes and Reid could still beat the House bills? Democratic aides say that the red-staters are "scared straight" by the House GOP. They're not getting the calls from home to defund Obamacare. Their home-state papers aren't dogging them, either. They're in no fear of losing an "optics" battle to John Boehner and company.

The intransigence of Democrats, from Obama on down to red-state senators, has surprised the GOP.
Neither are the House Democrats. Neither are progressive organizations—not even labor unions like the Teamsters and AFL-CIO, which loudly demanded changes in the law, got cited by Republicans as proof that the Democratic coalition was imploding, then started showing up on the Hill for solidarity marches with furloughed workers. Sure, dozens of Democrats in competitive seats have now voted for "mini-CRs" that didn't touch Obamacare. Fewer than 10 have voted for any CR that did. Gerrymandering and the 2010 election have hollowed out the old, media-savvy Blue Dogs who used to make public breaks from Rep. Nancy Pelosi. There's a new, near-total refusal to compromise.

"It's based on history," said Arizona Rep. Raul Grijalva, a former chair of the House Progressive Caucus. "Every time that we get into these situations, whether it was the grand bargain or the last CR or the debt ceiling, at the end of the day it is all the give on the side of Democrats. I think that pattern is well-documented, and all of us know it. People vote for the greater good, to keep government working. Then you come back around, and there's nothing left to give. I think we've reached the tipping point, with Democrats saying, 'If you want to bear the responsibility for the crisis you've created, then you bear it, and we're gonna stand firm.' "

Some Republicans think they turned the tide, or started to, with the mini-CRs. Democrats think that's short sighted. It's easy for the GOP to pass a small bill that "funds our veterans." What happens if the shutdown drags, and voters start hearing about poor families missing out on Temporary Assistance for Needy Families payments or Food and Drug Administration and Environmental Protection Agency inspectors going off the clock? Is the GOP going to pass a mini-CR for the EPA? For food stamps?

"We've gone from 'defund Obamacare or else' to 'oh, you know, we've got some favorite agencies we want to fund,' " said Virginia Rep. Gerry Connolly, who represents Washington suburbs and exurbs that used to be competitive for Republicans. "I don't think they're going to be able to frame that with voters. How do they do it? So—for a cheap political ad a year from now, they held the government hostage?"

Democrats don't worry about that. They worry about a "grand bargain" that would ask them to bail out the GOP again and vote for Social Security cuts. But in 2011, conservatives blew up a deal and spared the Democrats that vote. In 2013, conservatives turned the focus to Obamacare, which the party's never going to undo.

"Dealing with terrorists has taught us some things," said Washington Rep. Jim McDermott after voting no on one of Thursday's GOP bills. "You can't deal with 'em. This mess was created by the Republicans for one purpose, and they lost. People in my district are calling in for Obamacare—affordable health care—in large numbers. These guys have lost, and they can't figure out how to admit it." Why would House Democrats give away what the Supreme Court and the 2012 electorate didn't? "You can't say, OK, you get half of Obamacare—this isn't a Solomonic decision," McDermott said. "So we sit here until they figure out they fuckin' lost."

[Tamas]

"So we sit here until they figure out they fuckin' lost."

I agree, they should do that or they will continue with the blackmails. This is the same shit which happened to Hungary in the 4 years before 2010 (Orban`s opposition times), as they refused to show even a hint of reasonability. And it ruined the country.

[Viking]

Yikes, so what happened? You got a hotel there for a night?

yep

[Grey Fox]

Sure, Rasputin the federal gov shutdown doesn't affect anyone.

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2013/10/shutdown-salmonella/

Late-breaking news, and I'll update as I find out more: While the government is shut down, with food-safety personnel and disease detectives sent home and forbidden to work, a major foodborne-illness outbreak has begun. This evening, the Food Safety and Inspection Service of the US Department of Agriculture announced that "an estimated 278 illnesses ... reported in 18 states" have been caused by chicken contaminated with Salmonella Heidelberg and possibly produced by the firm Foster Farms.

[Berkut]

"Dealing with terrorists has taught us some things," said Washington Rep. Jim McDermott after voting no on one of Thursday's GOP bills. "You can't deal with 'em. This mess was created by the Republicans for one purpose, and they lost. People in my district are calling in for Obamacare—affordable health care—in large numbers. These guys have lost, and they can't figure out how to admit it." Why would House Democrats give away what the Supreme Court and the 2012 electorate didn't? "You can't say, OK, you get half of Obamacare—this isn't a Solomonic decision," McDermott said. "So we sit here until they figure out they fuckin' lost."

The Dems should be copying this quote onto every social media site they can. It is the very essence of the issue.

[garbon]

"Dealing with terrorists has taught us some things," said Washington Rep. Jim McDermott after voting no on one of Thursday's GOP bills. "You can't deal with 'em. This mess was created by the Republicans for one purpose, and they lost. People in my district are calling in for Obamacare—affordable health care—in large numbers. These guys have lost, and they can't figure out how to admit it." Why would House Democrats give away what the Supreme Court and the 2012 electorate didn't? "You can't say, OK, you get half of Obamacare—this isn't a Solomonic decision," McDermott said. "So we sit here until they figure out they fuckin' lost."

The Dems should be copying this quote onto every social media site they can. It is the very essence of the issue.

Yeah, I suppose if they want to demonstrate how utterly classless they are.

[DGuller]

No, they got it exactly right, and being classy has little to do with it.  Republicans, like most bullies, eventually overreached, and put Democrats in position where they have to go against their instincts and stand ground.  My only fears is that Republicans would be too stupid to recognize it and fold.  History is full of examples of bullies not realizing when the jig was up, to the detriment of everyone.

[Tamas]

"Dealing with terrorists has taught us some things," said Washington Rep. Jim McDermott after voting no on one of Thursday's GOP bills. "You can't deal with 'em. This mess was created by the Republicans for one purpose, and they lost. People in my district are calling in for Obamacare—affordable health care—in large numbers. These guys have lost, and they can't figure out how to admit it." Why would House Democrats give away what the Supreme Court and the 2012 electorate didn't? "You can't say, OK, you get half of Obamacare—this isn't a Solomonic decision," McDermott said. "So we sit here until they figure out they fuckin' lost."

The Dems should be copying this quote onto every social media site they can. It is the very essence of the issue.

Yeah, I suppose if they want to demonstrate how utterly classless they are.

How can you be classless when your opposing side holds an entire nation ransom to revoke something as cemented in the democratic rules and regulations as anything can potentially be (apart from adding it to the Constitution I guess)?

I am sorry Republicans for your tribe being clearly in the wrong here, but it is, and by joining those who try to mish-mash this or blur the responsibility, you are joining those maintaining this situation and moving it closer to something very bad.

[Tamas]

No, they got it exactly right, and being classy has little to do with it.  Republicans, like most bullies, eventually overreached, and put Democrats in position where they have to go against their instincts and stand ground.  My only fears is that Republicans would be too stupid to recognize it and fold.  History is full of examples of bullies not realizing when the jig was up, to the detriment of everyone.

pretty much

[Sheilbh]

Why would House Democrats give away what the Supreme Court and the 2012 electorate didn't? "You can't say, OK, you get half of Obamacare—this isn't a Solomonic decision," McDermott said. "So we sit here until they figure out they fuckin' lost."

I agree with this. If the Repblicans want to change Obamacare they need to start winning elections. I don't think they're going about that at the minute.

As a demonstration the Dem candidate in Virginia has now opened up a decent lead in what was, until now, a relatively close race. I wonder if the shutdown's had any effect on Christie's polling numbers?

Instead they're still like Labour in the 80s - no compromise with the voters.

[grumbler]

"Dealing with terrorists has taught us some things," said Washington Rep. Jim McDermott after voting no on one of Thursday's GOP bills. "You can't deal with 'em. This mess was created by the Republicans for one purpose, and they lost. People in my district are calling in for Obamacare—affordable health care—in large numbers. These guys have lost, and they can't figure out how to admit it." Why would House Democrats give away what the Supreme Court and the 2012 electorate didn't? "You can't say, OK, you get half of Obamacare—this isn't a Solomonic decision," McDermott said. "So we sit here until they figure out they fuckin' lost."

The Dems should be copying this quote onto every social media site they can. It is the very essence of the issue.

Yeah, I suppose if they want to demonstrate how utterly classless they are.

I don't think it is classless to force the losers to admit they lost.  Not even if the losers are your guys.

[garbon]

"Dealing with terrorists has taught us some things," said Washington Rep. Jim McDermott after voting no on one of Thursday's GOP bills. "You can't deal with 'em. This mess was created by the Republicans for one purpose, and they lost. People in my district are calling in for Obamacare—affordable health care—in large numbers. These guys have lost, and they can't figure out how to admit it." Why would House Democrats give away what the Supreme Court and the 2012 electorate didn't? "You can't say, OK, you get half of Obamacare—this isn't a Solomonic decision," McDermott said. "So we sit here until they figure out they fuckin' lost."

The Dems should be copying this quote onto every social media site they can. It is the very essence of the issue.

Yeah, I suppose if they want to demonstrate how utterly classless they are.

I don't think it is classless to force the losers to admit they lost.  Not even if the losers are your guys.

I don't disagree with the sentiment/statement, but do take issue with the tone/language. I don't think it becoming of a congressman to say things like "they fuckin' lost."

[Tamas]

It is well in time to start speaking frank and emphasizing that patience is running very thin.

[garbon]

It is well in time to start speaking frank and emphasizing that patience is running very thin.

Among the Jim McDermotts? Sure.