Former CIA and NSA employee source of intelligence leaks

[Zanza]

Sheilbh, where do you get the idea that Germany has any intention to have a "independent capability" for anything? What Germany wants to be is a big Switzerland.

But Switzerland isn't a land of pussies.  Germany can't be a big Switzerland because Germany is filled with Germans, not Swiss.  Germany needs allies, whle Switzerland does not.

For what?

[Sheilbh]

Why can't it be a big Switzerland?

Does Germany plan to provide a convenient hidey-hole for the assets of the world's worst regimes?

Also you can ignore Switzerland. Do you really think the US, Russia or China would ignore the most important country in Europe, with the biggest economy because they don't like it? There's no more chance of Germany being able to be safely left alone than of, say, Japan or Brazil.

You'd be more likely to end up like Sweden or Norway without the close American cooperation.

[Zanza]

You'd be more likely to end up like Sweden or Norway without the close American cooperation.

That does not sound like such a terrible prospect.

[Berkut]

What about fucking German foreign policy makers? Do they have any? Or is German foreign policy solely driven by how hurt their feelings are at the moment by whatever it is the US has done most recently to offend their delicate sensibilities?

German foreign policy is probably driven in part by assessments of German national interests, but also in part by political considerations, including domestic opinion, even if those considerations may mean acting against interest.  I.e. pretty much the same as any other democracy.  So German diplomats may believe that supporting the US on a particular matter may be in Germany's national interest, but nonetheless the politicians that oversee them may direct otherwise to appease outrage from the voters.  Democracy can be inconvenient that way sometimes.

Of course - which is why it is perfectly reasonable to blast ignorant public opinion that drives policy when it happens.

Like making fun on the Tea Party and lamenting the stupidity they force on politicians in many respects.

Just because this is an unfortunate reality of democracy doesn't mean that the people being batshit stupid get a pass for being ignorant dumbasses.

In this particular case, even without hindsight, it looks to me like it may have been an error of judgment by the US.  The US had two options - either exploit the source for the information he could access or turn him into the German authorities, thus getting the benefit of demonstrating good faith to an important and useful ally.  The question is whether the value of information exceeds the sum of the benefits to be received by turning him plus the product of the risk of being caught times the political fallout of getting caught.  And although of course I don't know exactly what the value of the info was, it doesn't appear from the description to be enormously compelling.

That sounds like a great plan - when someone comes to the US interested in being an intelligence asset, lets turn them into the local authorities. I am sure that would be a fine way to run an intelligence service.

[grumbler]

Sheilbh, where do you get the idea that Germany has any intention to have a "independent capability" for anything? What Germany wants to be is a big Switzerland.

But Switzerland isn't a land of pussies.  Germany can't be a big Switzerland because Germany is filled with Germans, not Swiss.  Germany needs allies, whle Switzerland does not.

For what?

To protect its interests outside of Germany.

[Sheilbh]

That does not sound like such a terrible prospect.

The reason Sweden's developed close relations with the US is because during the Cold War they were subject to routine submarine incursions. During the Putin era they've had dummy air attacks, huge Russian infiltration and sigint efforts and, apparently, had their air defences jammed by Russian hackers. They're subject to intelligence attacks by Russia on a regular basis. Germany's a country that matters far, far more. Having re-assessed the US relationship, Germany would be subject to at least more sigint collection and infiltration from at least Russia and the US, if not the UK, France and China too.

Not unreasonably Sweden wants to know what Russia's thinking in meddling with them and the Baltic states. What's the state of the Baltic fleet? Why are they putting nukes in Kalingrad? They don't have the resources to answer those questions which are, I think, key to their national security - no spy satellites for example - so they deal with the Americans to get that.

Again there's an element of Sweden developing an independent capability - linguistic skills, analysts, listening posts - that enables them to work with the Western alliance to protect themselves and stay informed on Russia.

In addition with jihadist groups, especially given what's happening in Syria, there's legitimate reasons for countries to want to know what's going on in their own territory. If they've got some constitutional problem with that, then letting the Americans do it for you in exchange for cooperation elsewhere is a good thing for everyone and, frankly, if you don't cooperate they (and the Brits and French I imagine) will do it anyway.

This doesn't seem to be Germany's goal. Less cooperation with the Yanks, no nukes, no armed capability and an under-resourced intelligence service. It's like closing your eyes and wishing the world would go away. Europe isn't, alas, a comfortable retirement home.

Edit: And again I'd add the UK and France have always had a reputation for trying to get sources in EU governments to give their governments an advantage in Euro-summits. That'll also continue regardless and, in the case of the UK, will almost certainly be shared with the US if they want it.

[Berkut]

The best part about the breathtaking stupidity of a view point like this is is the idea that checking Putin is somehow a uniquely US interest, that Germany apparently is neutral about, and hence we should change how we deal with Germany in order to make sure they don't side with a dangerous asshole like Putin.

You may want to read the reports on how the Americans were indeed frustrated by Germany's more neutral role in the Ukrainian conflict in the last months.

Indeed. Other countries acting in a petulant and self-defeating manner that betrays their allies is in fact frustrating.

It's a bit of a repetition from similar earlier situations e.g. in Iran. Your foreign policy interests are not necessarily the same as ours.

Except that mostly they are. And when it comes to Russia, in fact, Putin is a much larger concern for Germany that they are for the US.

*Especially* given that Germany is probably psychologically incapable of actually taking concrete action against Russia should it become necessary, Putin is a much graver security and foreign policy conern for Germany than the US.

Throw on top the fact that ignorant German civilians like yourself seem so intent on pissing on the US, even though it is the US that provides the bulk of the actual security Germany relies on, and this makes even less sense. You are literally pissing on the policeman who is protecting you from the thieves because they've done such a good job you've actually convinced yourself there aren't any left, and feel it is safe to take a shit on the cop.

And then have the gall to actually blame the cop for the "decline in relations" because the cop might have snooped in your mail.

The German public doesn't really care about the dangerous asshole Putin annexing Crimea.

That just means they are none too bright.

It does care about the US spying on it and the government. You may deplore that, but in the end, reality should determine policy.

[

Ignorant people's views are not "reality". It is true that the fact that so many Germans seem to be ignorant is a reality, and that is certainly something that US policy makers should keep in mind - this of course assuming that your representation of the "typical German" being accurate is in itself accurate. I hope it is not, but I fear...

This is the kind of attitude that makes Americans just want to say "You know what? Fuck You Europe. Deal with Putin yourself then, he is on YOUR doorstop, not ours".

A majority of Germans happens to agree with that sentiment, so we have at least that in common with Americans. 

Awesome. I am sure that would work out wonderfully for everyone. It is nice to know that German "morality" is really nothing more than petulance, and they would rather climb in bed with Putin. Because he sure would never spy on them, I am sure.

[The Minsky Moment]

That sounds like a great plan - when someone comes to the US interested in being an intelligence asset, lets turn them into the local authorities. I am sure that would be a fine way to run an intelligence service.

Point taken . . .
As a general practice, clearly would not work.  But there are exceptional cases.  Based on how this has been reported - perhaps with some hindsight benefit/bias - it seems like this particular "asset" was missing the ending "et". An accident waiting to happen.  Given the information being peddled - deliberations of a German parliamentary committee - unless the intent was to develop a powerful new soporific, it might have been wiser at the very least to take a pass.  Although there may be some details I don't know about that explains why the risk was run to gather this particular info.

[DGuller]

Why can't it be a big Switzerland?

Switzerland got its neutrality through strength, not weakness.  They made themselves a nut too hard to be worth cracking.  They didn't achieve and defend their neutrality through wimpiness and hurt feelings.  And from the moral perspective, the Swiss used their neutrality to be amoral scumbags, so that's not exactly an ideal to strive towards to from that angle either.

[The Minsky Moment]

Outside of speculative philosophy, subtlety has rarely been a strong point in the German national character.
It took a lot of effort and trouble to get Germany to understand that aggressive militarism and invading neighbors was a serious no-no.  But that effort finally succeeded.  It does appear to have pushed Germany close to the opposite extreme.   Ideally one would want to see a more nuanced position in between.  But again, nuance is not a traditional strong point for Germany.  And between the two poles, we are better off where we are now than on the other side.

[Razgovory]

A majority of Germans happens to agree with that sentiment, so we have at least that in common with Americans. 

You do know this will increase spying, not decrease it right?  Possibly other things as well.  Such as the possibility of kidnapping or assassinating German citizens.

[Syt]

I'm pretty sure the kicking out was mainly for public show, and that the actual discussions are held quietly between German and U.S. intelligence and governments at this point.

[The Brain]

That does not sound like such a terrible prospect.

The reason Sweden's developed close relations with the US is because during the Cold War they were subject to routine submarine incursions. During the Putin era they've had dummy air attacks, huge Russian infiltration and sigint efforts and, apparently, had their air defences jammed by Russian hackers. They're subject to intelligence attacks by Russia on a regular basis. Germany's a country that matters far, far more. Having re-assessed the US relationship, Germany would be subject to at least more sigint collection and infiltration from at least Russia and the US, if not the UK, France and China too.

Not unreasonably Sweden wants to know what Russia's thinking in meddling with them and the Baltic states. What's the state of the Baltic fleet? Why are they putting nukes in Kalingrad? They don't have the resources to answer those questions which are, I think, key to their national security - no spy satellites for example - so they deal with the Americans to get that.

Again there's an element of Sweden developing an independent capability - linguistic skills, analysts, listening posts - that enables them to work with the Western alliance to protect themselves and stay informed on Russia.

Close cooperation between Sweden and the US in the intelligence field goes back to the very earliest days of the cold war. Obviously Sweden has had an independent capability when it comes to intelligence work directed at the Russians for a long time.

[Syt]

Btw, a representative survey of what Germans think of America from last week:



From top to bottom:
- power hungry
- progressive
- arrogant
- democratic
- cosmopolitan/open minded
- reckless
- aggressive
- trustworthy

[Zanza]

Having re-assessed the US relationship, Germany would be subject to at least more sigint collection and infiltration from at least Russia and the US, if not the UK, France and China too.

Why would Russia, China, UK and France spy more? How does their level of spying relate to our relationship with the US?
The US has huge intelligence facilities in Germany and get the data right at the source. This is what I question. I am sure the US would still want to spy on us in the future, but I don't see why the German government should make it simple for them.

If they've got some constitutional problem with that, then letting the Americans do it for you in exchange for cooperation elsewhere is a good thing for everyone

Yeah, we already know you are a police state supporter, but constitutions and constitutionally protected rights actually mean something to some of us.

and, frankly, if you don't cooperate they (and the Brits and French I imagine) will do it anyway.

Other countries doing something anyway is meaningless for my argument. I question why the German government supports the US government spying on us and whether that should continue when it is clear that their is no trustful cooperation between the intelligence services and the ballooning US intelligence gathering seems to have lost all proportion.