2016 elections - because it's never too early

[jimmy olsen]

With 44% in Alaska, Cruz takes the lead

Cruz 2,481 35.6 0
Trump 2,318 33.2 0
Rubio 1,123 16.1 0
Carson 691 9.9 0
Kasich 360 5.2 0
__________________

Man, this is the worst result for the GOP. With Cruz winning 3 states he's the clear chalenger rather than Rubio.

[Phillip V]

With 44% in Alaska, Cruz takes the lead

Cruz 2,481 35.6 0
Trump 2,318 33.2 0
Rubio 1,123 16.1 0
Carson 691 9.9 0
Kasich 360 5.2 0
__________________

Man, this is the worst result for the GOP. With Cruz winning 3 states he's the clear chalenger rather than Rubio.

Trump losing in Alaska would be egg on Sarah Palin's face.  What value is her endorsement?! 

[Admiral Yi]

Either that's some tiny ass turnout in Alaska or only the unpopulated Alaskimo precincts in the tundra have reported.

[Eddie Teach]

Trump losing in Alaska would be egg on Sarah Palin's face.  What value is her endorsement?! 

Way to find a silver lining in today's results. 

[Phillip V]

Christie! 

After further analysis, perhaps Christie saw something in the back of Trump's head.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Alaska is one of the straight proportional GOP primaries, so it won't matter much delegate wise who wins, but it's a further feather in Cruz's camp if he holds on.

If the hope was to "derail" Trump and have someone else win the majority, Cruz being stronger than expected today makes that all but impossible. His projected votes, with or without other people in the race, in a lot of the states after today is terrible. Cruz is just deeply unpopular outside of some very conservative strongholds (and Alaska is certainly one of those.) I now think the realistic goal by the GOP establishment will be to force a contested convention and dump Trump. If they do this I think he runs independent out of spite, but they may be willing to pay the piper on that one.

FiveThirtyEight indicated Trump likely only needed to grab 225 delegates today or 297 cumulative to be on pace to win the nomination outright--this is because of the winner take all primaries that he would be expected to win that are coming up. If he wins Ohio and Florida that's 165 delegates, and most importantly it's straight margin delegates.

[katmai]

Either that's some tiny ass turnout in Alaska or only the unpopulated Alaskimo precincts in the tundra have reported.

2012 the GOP had something like 16,000 people vote in Caucus...

[katmai]

10:45 p.m.: With 27 of 40 districts reporting, including all of Southeast and most of Kenai,
12,710 Republican ballots have been counted in Alaska.
Ted Cruz held the lead in the presidential poll with 35.3 percent of the vote.
Donald Trump was second with 33.8 percent,
Marco Rubio third with 16.3 percent,
Ben Carson fourth with 10 percent and
John Kasich fifth with 4.6 percent.

[katmai]

64% reported
Ted Cruz 36% 5,148
Donald Trump 34% 4,909
Marco Rubio 16% 2,292
Ben Carson 10% 1,439
John Katich 4% 629
 

[jimmy olsen]

Looks like Cruz will definitely win Alaska.

84% in
Cruz   6,395   36.3   11   
Trump   5,858   33.3   11   
Rubio   2,738   15.6   5   
Carson   1,846   10.5   0   
Kasich   758   4.3   0

[Phillip V]

Comedy aside, is Ben Carson thus far the most successful black Republican Presidential candidate ever?

[katmai]

Ted Cruz 36%   (Projected Winner) 7,923
Donald Trump 34% 7,346
Marco Rubio 15% 3,318
Ben Carson 11% 2,401
John Katich 4% 892

97% reporting

[katmai]

Looks like Cruz will definitely win Alaska.

84% in
Cruz   6,395   36.3   11   
Trump   5,858   33.3   11   
Rubio   2,738   15.6   5   
Carson   1,846   10.5   0   
Kasich   758   4.3   0

Trump was up in last poll, done about a month ago by 4%

[Admiral Yi]

Comedy aside, is Ben Carson thus far the most successful black Republican Presidential candidate ever?

I think Alan Keyes had comparable or better numbers.

[Eddie Teach]

Comedy aside, is Ben Carson thus far the most successful black Republican Presidential candidate ever?

He has 8 delegates so far, Keyes had 23 in 2000.

An interesting note from the 2000 primary- one of the failed candidates was John Kasich.