2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Admiral Yi]

Dorsey is either donkey or donkey-leaning.

[Jaron]

Tim called it. Trump crushed Cruz. 

[Eddie Teach]

Tim called it. Trump crushed Cruz. 

Almost as funny as Guller's gambling addiction.

[alfred russel]

I read that Clinton has 27 delegates vs Sanders' 22, with two to go. That includes super delegates, and taking precincts (or whatever they're called) into account. So even if Sanders breaks 50% Clinton will end up ahead in delegates.

... if what I read is true, anyhow.

But super delegates aren't determined by the voting, so adding them in isn't really fair to the caucus results. On the 538 blog they had an analysis that Sanders needs to win a very large majority (like 2/3) of the voting delegates to get the nomination based on how the super delegates are lining up.

But in the real world, assume Sanders goes into the convention having won most states and most delegates based on voting. Would the party elders/superdelegates (most of whom are elected themselves) really throw the nomination to someone else? I don't know the answer, but I don't think it is as cut and dried as looking at how they are pledged now.

[DGuller]

Tim called it. Trump crushed Cruz. 

Almost as funny as Guller's gambling addiction.

[alfred russel]

It seems like New Hampshire will be Jeb's Waterloo/Yellow Tavern. Which is a shame. With $100m, it would be awesome if he only got the ~5,000 votes he is getting in Iowa.

[Valmy]

Yeah the Super Delegates are not going to decide an election unless something crazy stupid happens. All they really want to do is prevent some kind of crazy Commie hijacking the party...huh

But seriously they did not stand in Obama's way in 2008 and they won't stand in Sanders' way in 2016.

Hillary is going to have to win some hearts and minds.

[DGuller]

But in the real world, assume Sanders goes into the convention having won most states and most delegates based on voting. Would the party elders/superdelegates (most of whom are elected themselves) really throw the nomination to someone else? I don't know the answer, but I don't think it is as cut and dried as looking at how they are pledged now.

Yeah, I wonder about that myself.  The superdelegate system seems like a desperate safeguard at best.  To use it to circumvent the primary results would throw the party into chaos.

[Phillip V]

I read that Clinton has 27 delegates vs Sanders' 22, with two to go. That includes super delegates, and taking precincts (or whatever they're called) into account. So even if Sanders breaks 50% Clinton will end up ahead in delegates.

... if what I read is true, anyhow.

But super delegates aren't determined by the voting, so adding them in isn't really fair to the caucus results. On the 538 blog they had an analysis that Sanders needs to win a very large majority (like 2/3) of the voting delegates to get the nomination based on how the super delegates are lining up.

But in the real world, assume Sanders goes into the convention having won most states and most delegates based on voting. Would the party elders/superdelegates (most of whom are elected themselves) really throw the nomination to someone else? I don't know the answer, but I don't think it is as cut and dried as looking at how they are pledged now.

Clinton beat Obama by popular vote in the 2008 Democratic primaries:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2008

[The Minsky Moment]

Tim called it. Trump crushed Cruz. 

Finally the taint works its magic.

[alfred russel]

Clinton beat Obama by popular vote in the 2008 Democratic primaries:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2008

Obama won the most states and dominated the caucuses which don't contribute to those vote totals. He also won the most pledged delegates. I dont' think an impartial observer would say Clinton was the rightful winner.

[The Minsky Moment]

Well that is a dagger in the Trump momentum. Months and months (and months and months) of hand wringing...

After all the B.S., he couldn't reach 1/4 of the votes, and almost got pipped by Rubio.  Speculation about whether his polling number would translate into asses in the caucus room turned out to be well-founded.

yes it's Iowa so you can't read too much into it,  but boy is it nice to see a puncture finally made in the vast gaseous bubble of asinine pomposity,

[The Minsky Moment]

But in the real world, assume Sanders goes into the convention having won most states and most delegates based on voting. Would the party elders/superdelegates (most of whom are elected themselves) really throw the nomination to someone else? I don't know the answer, but I don't think it is as cut and dried as looking at how they are pledged now.

Superdelegates are there is there is a multiple candidate split but a clear frontrunner, they can push a candidate over and thus avoid a chaotic convention.  Flipping the contest against the weight of the votes is another thing altogether.

[derspiess]

So the first time my wife picks a candidate he wins something. Figures.

[Razgovory]

Is it just me, or does the Mexican captain look like Rafael E. Cruz