Korea Thread: Liberal Moon Jae In Elected

[Zanza]

Most likely answer is that Trump shows up, announces he will sign a peace treaty and recognize North Korea, declare himself to be a peacemaker, and leave.  It'll probably make for good publicity for him, all the while ignoring that the North Koreans gave up nothing while the US gave up a great deal of leverage in exchange for nothing.

Yeah, you are right. Maybe he'll make Kim give up on ICBMs too and only keep the medium range missles, thereby selling out South Korea and Japan in the deal... 

[Maladict]

To be fair such summits are never conducted in front of reporters.

True, but it's really just Trump, Kim and a translator.

Trump will be utterly unprepared and relying on his supposed deal making talent, Kim is a third generation Machiavelli reincarnate.

A transcript of this meeting will be pure gold.

[Legbiter]

Most likely answer is that Trump shows up, announces he will sign a peace treaty and recognize North Korea, declare himself to be a peacemaker, and leave.  It'll probably make for good publicity for him, all the while ignoring that the North Koreans gave up nothing while the US gave up a great deal of leverage in exchange for nothing.

If Trump walks out of that summit with a formal peace treaty ending the Korean war that would be pretty good start. 

[crazy canuck]

Trump and Kim to meet in private, no scribes allowed. How could this possibly end well?*



*Apart from the obvious answer (Shinjū)

To be fair such summits are never conducted in front of reporters.

Though I agree the odds of this ending well are vanishingly small.

Not sure where you are going with this - scribes are not reporters.  World leaders always meet with note takes (ie scribes) so that there is a record of what was said and promised - or not.  Then the machinery of government can make it so - or not - without the political leader having to hold a briefing about what occurred.

[crazy canuck]

Most likely answer is that Trump shows up, announces he will sign a peace treaty and recognize North Korea, declare himself to be a peacemaker, and leave.  It'll probably make for good publicity for him, all the while ignoring that the North Koreans gave up nothing while the US gave up a great deal of leverage in exchange for nothing.

If Trump walks out of that summit with a formal peace treaty ending the Korean war that would be pretty good start. 

Not sure about that.  The North Koreans want the US out of the South.  They will pretty much sign anything to achieve that - with their fingers crossed behind their back.  They have correctly identified that this President may be their best chance to get what they want and all they really have to do is play to his ego.

[Legbiter]

We'll see. As always the devil is in the details. If it dosen't work the sanctions and saber-rattling can continue as it always has.

[crazy canuck]

We'll see. As always the devil is in the details. If it dosen't work the sanctions and saber-rattling can continue as it always has.

Once the US removes its troops I am not sure how things can continue as always.

[Legbiter]

Troop removal is getting ahead of the game I'd think. I'd expect a Trump walkout per his Manhattan real estate negotiating style. 

[Jacob]

I'd expect a Trump walkout per his Manhattan real estate negotiating style.

Agreed. Hot-cold. Right now he's "it's gonna be great". He'll go back to "fuck you" soon enough.

[Legbiter]

The summit schedule has been released.

The White House, saying that discussions with North Korea "have moved more quickly than expected," released an updated schedule of President Trump's summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, set to kick off in just under 13 hours.

The big things: Trump and Kim will kick off the summit with a one-on-one meeting, but things won't last long — Trump is set to leave Singapore at 8 p.m. on Tuesday, just 11 hours after the summit starts

The details:

"Following the initial greeting [at 9 a.m. local time, 9 p.m. ET], President Trump and Chairman Kim will participate in a one-on-one meeting, with translators only, an expanded bilateral meeting, and a working lunch."

The bilateral meeting will include Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Chief of Staff John Kelly, and National Security Advisor John Bolton.

During the working lunch, Press Secretary Sarah Sanders, Ambassador Sung Kim, and National Security Council Senior Director for Asia Matt Pottinger will join.

Trump will hold a press conference after the meetings and before his departure at 8 p.m. local time (8 a.m. ET) on Tuesday.

https://www.axios.com/donald-trump-kim-jong-un-north-korea-summit-schedule-singapore-e0e81fb7-a075-458c-a394-b7ec80e503e7.html

[Berkut]

Well, North Korea has been trying to get into unilateral talks with the US for a couple decades now. I guess Trump was their guy to get that done for them.

[Razgovory]

Trump believes he needs a "win" here.  That'll be a big his big message coming in to the mid terms.  I think he also plans to use good press from a major diplomatic victory as political capital to be used to destroy the Mueller investigation.  So he'll stay and claim any action as a historic victory.   If he leaves there is a chance of military action.  Trump believes his political life is at stake, so he has no problem expending Tim's physical one if things look bad.

[Legbiter]

[Admiral Yi]

Dueling hairdos.  Slight edge to fat boy for the sexy wings.

[jimmy olsen]

I thought this was a good analysis.

https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/status/1005799131581952000

1. With our nation's sloppy ignorance based on bumper stickers, here is a pre-analysis of North Korea meeting. Even if Kim says "I will denuclearize" it is meaningless. There has been virtually no preparation for this meeting. Normally, a framework is negotiated by underlings...

2...and only when that agreement exists do the nation's leaders come in. This can take years. Iran deal, negotiated by many counties, took two years. Denuclearization is not like deciding to throw out a pair of shoes. But, Kim has undoubtedly been fed info about Trump's aching...

3...and pathetic need for praise. Hell, I said on a cable news show years ago that all Kim had to do was work to make Trump look good or praise him, and Trump would be giving Kim guided tours of our nuclear facilities. Saying "I will denuclearize" involves nothing. Years of....

4....negotiations will follow - years in which North Korea can bask in the recognition it has so achingly desired from the United States, surrendering our biggest strategic chip for nothing at all (Same as Trump did in moving our Israel embassy to Jerusalem). After, Kim will...

5...bask on the global stage, knowing full well negotiations will lead into the 2020 elections. Trump will, undoubtedly, continue to pump NK "deal" as a big accomplishment. Kim will know, another US president will return to acting based on knowledge, not impulse or narcissism...

6....and the international carnival show of "denuclearization" will end. Knowing the collapse of this fake show will terrify Trump pre-2020, Kim will be in the position to make insane demands of the US, which Trump will either have to accept or admit that he was a fool...

Kim, worst case scenario in declaring "I will denuclearize" is this: He gains validation of his government by the heighest reaches of the American government, he gets to make demands of the US for two years, he can slow-roll the talks, walk away, and lose nothing...

8...the reason underlings do the original negotiation - in private - under the leadership of competent presidents is exactly this: To keep chips on the table, to find out if the other side is bluffing, and see if an agreement is even possible. Trump is the worst dealmaker...

9...in history. He has surrendered everything to Kim before the meeting even takes place. Kim has given up nothing - yes he has SAID he is giving up elements of his nuclear program, like testing, but those were already ending. The nuke program is fully tested. So Kim wins....

10...an enormous amount because of Trump's incompetence and gives up nothing. And for the next few years, he can see how much he can wheedle out of Trump - no doubt, he will say kind words about Trump and seek the end of sanctions. And by now, I have no reason to doubt that....

11...Trump will be stupid enough to drop the last card in our deck, to cave on the sanctions if Kim praises him and asks him to, even though no deal is in place. No one pays for food they are getting for free. Kim already got the most important things he wants - a meeting with...

12...an American president (ALL of the other American presidents have been smart enough to understand that meeting with him and his father before him was the main thing they wanted, and having a meeting with no prelim agreement was throwing away a card.) He might get more.....

13...and in the end, he can say "Meh, we can't reach an agreement" and then walk away from the table carrying all of the chips Trump handed to him for no reason at all. Kim cannot lose. We are highly unlikely to win - and most likely will set back any possible denuclearization...

14...of the Korean peninsula by decades. But Trump will praise himself, Fox will praise him, his supporters who understand nothing about NK will praise him, and in the end, it is highly likely nothing will happen. Kim doesnt have to give up anything. He will already have won.