Turning Points that Failed to Turn

[The Minsky Moment]

A commonly mentioned one would be the closing of China to outside exploration after Zeng He.

That wasn't really a classic exploration effort in the Colombian sense.

[Barrister]

A commonly mentioned one would be the closing of China to outside exploration after Zeng He.

That wasn't really a classic exploration effort in the Colombian sense.

Minsky - it's one sentence, 92 characters.  I wasn't writing a whole treatise on Zeng He.  I am aware of that.

[Malthus]

wikipedia says otherwise

The Mongols would have hunted those editors down and killed them, too. 

[Valmy]

A commonly mentioned one would be the closing of China to outside exploration after Zeng He.

That wasn't really a classic exploration effort in the Colombian sense.

Minsky - it's one sentence, 92 characters.  I wasn't writing a whole treatise on Zeng He.  I am aware of that.

With so much misinformation about Zeng He going around one cannot be too careful.  I blame Gavin Menzies.

[Malthus]

I think the Mongols could have wreacked a great deal of havoc all over the North German Plain but subjugating Italy, France, Spain, the Swiss (much less Scandinavia or the British Isles) would have been a different story.  Looking farther south, the Mongols not that long afterwards were stymied in their drive to Egypt and their high water mark receded.

Also it's not like Ogodai died in the flower of his youth; by medieval standards he has already pretty advanced in age and it was inevitable that at some point he would die and trigger succession struggles.

I don't see how the French or the Italians would have resisted. Hell, even with the Mongols at the very gates, the Pope and Emperor couldn't resolve their petty differences! I don't see the Swiss as fairing any better in their mountains than (say) the Ismailis. Scandinavia was probably too remote and unattractive in terms of plunder.

Sure, Odegai was in his 50s, but he could easily have lasted another decade without a miracle. That would have been enough.

As for Ain Jalut, that was just another casualty caused by Mongol disunity - the death of Mongke saved the Egyptians exactly as the death of Odegai saved the Europeans. The main mongol army had to withdraw for an election, leaving only a subsidiary army behind to face the Mamluks - which failed.

[crazy canuck]

I think what BB was getting at was the turning away from such ventures rather than expanding on them.  That was one of those pivotal historical decisions.  Imagine the impact on the trading States of Europe and the Muslims if the Chinese became long distance traders who traded directly with the markets seeking their goods rather than using Muslim and European middlemen.

Take one example - without the profit motive of seeking out routes to cut out the Venetians and their Muslim trading partners would the other nations have spent the resources on voyages of exploration to find a better route to Asia?

[Malthus]

To put it another way - could the Portuguese and later European colonialists have been able to dominate the trade throughout SE Asia for centuries if the Chinese were actively and officially involved?

The Chung Ho thing was really just a symptom of the Chinese more or less abandoning naval affairs.

[crazy canuck]

To put it another way - could the Portuguese and later European colonialists have been able to dominate the trade throughout SE Asia for centuries if the Chinese were actively and officially involved?

The Chung Ho thing was really just a symptom of the Chinese more or less abandoning naval affairs.

Would there have been such a thing as European colonists at all?  If the goods are coming direct to European ports via Chinese fleets what happens to the development of European naval power, naval exploration and subsequent colonization of lands discovered as a result of that exploration?

Sure someone might have had the bright idea of trying to cut into the Chinese trade but they would first have to undercut the Chinese somehow.

[Barrister]

I think what BB was getting at was the turning away from such ventures rather than expanding on them.  That was one of those pivotal historical decisions.  Imagine the impact on the trading States of Europe and the Muslims if the Chinese became long distance traders who traded directly with the markets seeking their goods rather than using Muslim and European middlemen.

Take one example - without the profit motive of seeking out routes to cut out the Venetians and their Muslim trading partners would the other nations have spent the resources on voyages of exploration to find a better route to Asia?

Yes.  I didn't mean to imply Chinese colonies in Peru were very likely (though if you follow through on Chinese expansion, who knows long-term).  But what if China, instead of trying to close its borders, and let foreigners come to them, instead sent its traders out, established Chinese trading colonies much like the Portuguese and Spanish subsequently did...

[Malthus]

To put it another way - could the Portuguese and later European colonialists have been able to dominate the trade throughout SE Asia for centuries if the Chinese were actively and officially involved?

The Chung Ho thing was really just a symptom of the Chinese more or less abandoning naval affairs.

Would there have been such a thing as European colonists at all?  If the goods are coming direct to European ports via Chinese fleets what happens to the development of European naval power, naval exploration and subsequent colonization of lands discovered as a result of that exploration?

Sure someone might have had the bright idea of trying to cut into the Chinese trade but they would first have to undercut the Chinese somehow.

It may be a stretch to say that Chinese ships would have rounded the horn - but they certainly could have dominated the SE Asia trade.

[Barrister]

To put it another way - could the Portuguese and later European colonialists have been able to dominate the trade throughout SE Asia for centuries if the Chinese were actively and officially involved?

The Chung Ho thing was really just a symptom of the Chinese more or less abandoning naval affairs.

Would there have been such a thing as European colonists at all?  If the goods are coming direct to European ports via Chinese fleets what happens to the development of European naval power, naval exploration and subsequent colonization of lands discovered as a result of that exploration?

Sure someone might have had the bright idea of trying to cut into the Chinese trade but they would first have to undercut the Chinese somehow.

It may be a stretch to say that Chinese ships would have rounded the horn - but they certainly could have dominated the SE Asia trade.

They could have dominated trade no only in SE asia, but through India and Persia and Arabia.

[crazy canuck]

IIRC his voyage stopped in at East African ports.  Not much of a stretch to think about future ventures making it around the horn, expecially since they would know what they were aiming at once they realized how lucrative trading with the backward Euros could be.

[The Minsky Moment]

I don't see how the French or the Italians would have resisted.

St. Louis would have made a more determined and resourceful foe than the fractious Magyars and the feudal and physical geographies of France would have posed challenges  (as they did to the French kings themselves at various times in the period).  In Italy, if the Mongol cavalry managed to penetrate the Alps in sufficient number, they could have conducted devastating raids, but the Venetians would have just retreated to their lagoons, and it is difficult to imagine setting themselves up long term as podestas in urban medieval Italy.  the history of medieval Italy is in part of the history of ability of the city-states to maintain independence despite repeated exertions of superior military force.

I don't see the Swiss as fairing any better in their mountains than (say) the Ismailis. Scandinavia was probably too remote and unattractive in terms of plunder.

The khans initially left the Nizaris alone, and only later went after them specifically to make an example of them.  Unlikely that they would seek to tackle the Swiss at the very extremes of their logistical reach, given the low value of the potential gain.

he could easily have lasted another decade without a miracle. That would have been enough.

As for Ain Jalut, that was just another casualty caused by Mongol disunity - the death of Mongke saved the Egyptians exactly as the death of Odegai saved the Europeans. The main mongol army had to withdraw for an election, leaving only a subsidiary army behind to face the Mamluks - which failed.

"Disunity" was an inherent problem in the Mongol organization structure - assuming a few individuals lived longer doesn't solve that problem.  A few extra years would be time enough to launch raids and large scale plundering expenditions; not sufficient to establish long-term permanent rule over areas at the far extremes of the Mongol reach.

[The Minsky Moment]

I think what BB was getting at was the turning away from such ventures rather than expanding on them.  That was one of those pivotal historical decisions.  Imagine the impact on the trading States of Europe and the Muslims if the Chinese became long distance traders who traded directly with the markets seeking their goods rather than using Muslim and European middlemen.

But the Chinese Empire being involved in sustained long distance trade was never in the cards.  That wasn't the purpose or concept behind Zheng's expeditions and it would have required a radical ideological shift.

[mongers]

My birth.