Turning Points that Failed to Turn

[Faeelin]

I've been reading about the dark ages lately, and in particular the Norse. I've always been a bit fascinated by the tale of Vinland; some Vikings reach the Americas, trade with natives, build a small settlement (hell, a child is born), and... They pack up, and no Europeans reach the Americas for centuries. 

It's obious in hindsight why this was preordained; Vinland was too far from Norse society, and even Greenland was cut off from Iceland for months at a time.  Europe wasn't short of furs or lumber, so there were no obvious goods. And yet it's still sort of amazing.

What are other moments in history that seem like they should have had momentous, long-range consequences, but didn't?

[alfred russel]

I think that is a tremendous turning point...imagine if European diseases made it to the new world in a brief encounter such as this. The Americas could have been wiped out and recovered before the Europeans were in a position to colonize. It is one of those possibilities that makes me doubt the Jared Diamond school of thinking that tends toward a certain amount of predestination.

[Malthus]

I've been reading about the dark ages lately, and in particular the Norse. I've always been a bit fascinated by the tale of Vinland; some Vikings reach the Americas, trade with natives, build a small settlement (hell, a child is born), and... They pack up, and no Europeans reach the Americas for centuries. 

It's obious in hindsight why this was preordained; Vinland was too far from Norse society, and even Greenland was cut off from Iceland for months at a time.  Europe wasn't short of furs or lumber, so there were no obvious goods. And yet it's still sort of amazing.

What are other moments in history that seem like they should have had momentous, long-range consequences, but didn't?

Mongol invasion of Europe seems like one.

Unstoppable Mongol armies massacre in turn each European army sent against them and occupy Hungary; nothing stands in their way - Europeans are hopelessly divided against each other and clueless as to how to oppose the Mongol threat (and full of people, like the Venetians, happily selling the Mongols accurate information). All Europe is about to join the middle east and China in being plundered and occupied - meaning likely no Renaissance and no European domination of the world in the future. 

Then the Mongol leader drinks himself to an early grave and they go home for his funeral. They never come back. 

[Barrister]

A commonly mentioned one would be the closing of China to outside exploration after Zeng He.  Much like Vinland there are also explanations for just why this happened (increasing pressures from Mongol tribes led to greater need to focus on land defence, not naval exploration), but a wonderful sense of "what if" nonetheless.

[Tamas]

I've been reading about the dark ages lately, and in particular the Norse. I've always been a bit fascinated by the tale of Vinland; some Vikings reach the Americas, trade with natives, build a small settlement (hell, a child is born), and... They pack up, and no Europeans reach the Americas for centuries. 

It's obious in hindsight why this was preordained; Vinland was too far from Norse society, and even Greenland was cut off from Iceland for months at a time.  Europe wasn't short of furs or lumber, so there were no obvious goods. And yet it's still sort of amazing.

What are other moments in history that seem like they should have had momentous, long-range consequences, but didn't?

Mongol invasion of Europe seems like one.

Unstoppable Mongol armies massacre in turn each European army sent against them and occupy Hungary; nothing stands in their way - Europeans are hopelessly divided against each other and clueless as to how to oppose the Mongol threat (and full of people, like the Venetians, happily selling the Mongols accurate information). All Europe is about to join the middle east and China in being plundered and occupied - meaning likely no Renaissance and no European domination of the world in the future. 

Then the Mongol leader drinks himself to an early grave and they go home for his funeral. They never come back.

Well, I think it is not THAT big of a turning point. I think Hungary gave an indication to the Mongols that Europe was not such an easy picking.
First of all, while they did destroy the Hungarian army, it was because the Hungarians had themselves hopelessy trapped in their own encampment, and yet, the battle was in question for a while, according to Chinese (IIRC) records.
More importantly, the feudal forces which did not reach the battle continued to harass the occupying force, and several fortified cities managed to keep out the Mongols.
They left completely because they couldn't count on moving enough force back to "vote" and keep the country pacified, since they couldn't achieve that with their main force, either.

Again, I don't think it was a special Magyar thing (altough I do think it was badass to wage quasi guerilla war against evil mofos like the Mongols), but rather a condition of the Mongols encountering a more developed and stable European country, and not managing to replace it's institutions and break it's neck.

[Barrister]

I think that is a tremendous turning point...imagine if European diseases made it to the new world in a brief encounter such as this. The Americas could have been wiped out and recovered before the Europeans were in a position to colonize.

That seems... unlikely to me.  It wasn't one single disease that caused the general indigenous american collapse - but the wave after wave of differing strains and different viruses that did it.

[Malthus]

Well, I think it is not THAT big of a turning point. I think Hungary gave an indication to the Mongols that Europe was not such an easy picking.
First of all, while they did destroy the Hungarian army, it was because the Hungarians had themselves hopelessy trapped in their own encampment, and yet, the battle was in question for a while, according to Chinese (IIRC) records.
More importantly, the feudal forces which did not reach the battle continued to harass the occupying force, and several fortified cities managed to keep out the Mongols.
They left completely because they couldn't count on moving enough force back to "vote" and keep the country pacified, since they couldn't achieve that with their main force, either.

Again, I don't think it was a special Magyar thing (altough I do think it was badass to wage quasi guerilla war against evil mofos like the Mongols), but rather a condition of the Mongols encountering a more developed and stable European country, and not managing to replace it's institutions and break it's neck.

I rather suspect that Hungarians somewhat over-estimate the amount of resistance they put up and its significance to the Mongols - naturally enough, as the Mongols left their lands and aside from the occasional raid did not come back, so the tendancy is to think 'well, they may have destroyed our main army, but we hurt 'em so much they ran off with tails between legs'.

In reality, the Mongol reaction had nothing whatsoever to do with Hungarian resistance, which was nothing compared with the fight put up by (say) the Chinese, and not even on the order of the fight put up by the Khwarzerim Empire. Hungary (and Europe) was the beneficiary of internal Mongol politics having nothing to do with them (but of course quite invisible to them.

The Mongol solution to "pacify" a country that resisted by guerilla style resistance was pretty effective - kill everyone. They did it before, and it tended to work.

[Tamas]

wikipedia says otherwise

[Sheilbh]

wikipedia says otherwise

With 700 edits by Fidezsians :p

[alfred russel]

I think that is a tremendous turning point...imagine if European diseases made it to the new world in a brief encounter such as this. The Americas could have been wiped out and recovered before the Europeans were in a position to colonize.

That seems... unlikely to me.  It wasn't one single disease that caused the general indigenous american collapse - but the wave after wave of differing strains and different viruses that did it.

The native american population collapse began almost immediately after contact was made and before many europeans arrived. I don't think that any secondary wave was nearly as devestating as the first.

It isn't hard to think of scenarios where contact could have been accelerated. Had the Greeks or Romans recorded contact, or the Vikings, then there probably would have been lower level contact long before Columbus.

[Syt]

From German history: the liberal revolution of 1848 fizzled out after Prussia's king rejected the German crown.

[Viking]

Anglo-French History:
Henry V's diarrhea

Icelandic History:
Thorgeir Ljosvetningagodi has a different dream. 

[Darth Wagtaros]

I think that is a tremendous turning point...imagine if European diseases made it to the new world in a brief encounter such as this. The Americas could have been wiped out and recovered before the Europeans were in a position to colonize.

That seems... unlikely to me.  It wasn't one single disease that caused the general indigenous american collapse - but the wave after wave of differing strains and different viruses that did it.

The native american population collapse began almost immediately after contact was made and before many europeans arrived. I don't think that any secondary wave was nearly as devestating as the first.

It isn't hard to think of scenarios where contact could have been accelerated. Had the Greeks or Romans recorded contact, or the Vikings, then there probably would have been lower level contact long before Columbus.

The collapse began in fairly densely populated areas though.  The big empires in South and Central America, for one.  The relatively sparesley populated North East might not have been as condusive to spreading the plague as to the regions that had more communication with the urban areas.

[Barrister]

I think that is a tremendous turning point...imagine if European diseases made it to the new world in a brief encounter such as this. The Americas could have been wiped out and recovered before the Europeans were in a position to colonize.

That seems... unlikely to me.  It wasn't one single disease that caused the general indigenous american collapse - but the wave after wave of differing strains and different viruses that did it.

The native american population collapse began almost immediately after contact was made and before many europeans arrived. I don't think that any secondary wave was nearly as devestating as the first.

It isn't hard to think of scenarios where contact could have been accelerated. Had the Greeks or Romans recorded contact, or the Vikings, then there probably would have been lower level contact long before Columbus.

The collapse began in fairly densely populated areas though.  The big empires in South and Central America, for one.  The relatively sparesley populated North East might not have been as condusive to spreading the plague as to the regions that had more communication with the urban areas.

Mind you our concept of a "sparsely populated north east" comes from contact with the area that was significantly post-1492...

[The Minsky Moment]

I think the Mongols could have wreacked a great deal of havoc all over the North German Plain but subjugating Italy, France, Spain, the Swiss (much less Scandinavia or the British Isles) would have been a different story.  Looking farther south, the Mongols not that long afterwards were stymied in their drive to Egypt and their high water mark receded.

Also it's not like Ogodai died in the flower of his youth; by medieval standards he has already pretty advanced in age and it was inevitable that at some point he would die and trigger succession struggles.