NFL 2011 season

[sbr]

Cardinals signed Todd Heap for 2 years.  That will be a nice upgrade at TE for the 6 games a year he is healthy.

[CountDeMoney]

Losing Heap is a bit bittersweet;  he's injury-prone, but he's been playing consistently the last two seasons, and always had the best hands on the team.  Signing with the Cards tells me Mrs. Heap had some say in the matter, that's home.  Dickson the Duck should fit in nicely, if he stays consistent.

The loss will be mitigated if they can bring back Mason for cheaper, and I don't see where else he'd go.

Leach is a total banger, but I'd rather them play with an ace back formation anyway.  Buh bye, McGahee and Le'Ron McClain. 

Ray Rice is now the full-time rock toter, there's nobody else behind him, and that worries me.

[CountDeMoney]

Vonta Leach to the Ravens, so Ray Rice should be pretty happy with that. 3 years, $11 million for the human battering ram.

Leach, 29, is different from Le'Ron McClain, the Ravens' fullback for the past four seasons.

McClain campaigned to run the ball after leading the team in rushing in 2008. Leach has carried the ball three times in seven seasons, none since 2008.

"Hitting is part of what I do," he said. "It's the mentality of a fullback. You're going to go in there [and] hit somebody every single time, every single play. It's going to be like a car crash."

The deal with Leach would appear to eliminate the chances of McClain's returning. The Ravens could use him to fill the big-back void left by Willis McGahee, but that would be a secondary role.

McClain didn't return phone calls Sunday.

The Ravens' focus in free agency has been to fix the running game, a message that was essentially delivered from the top. Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti pointed to the running game as the biggest disappointment after the season. "If I was an objective observer, I would say the run game let us down," he said.

The Ravens' first free-agent signing was keeping guard Marshal Yanda. Leach was another priority.

"We looked at him since early this offseason, and he was definitely on our 'wish list,'" coach John Harbaugh said. "Vonta fits the style of offense we are building, and his type of physical play is an addition that fits."

Ravens running back Ray Rice welcomed the addition. Upon hearing that Leach was a Raven, Rice wrote on Twitter, "Let the fun begin."

I also understand Kindle has been cleared to play, so that's awesome.

Yeah, apparently he was out there giving and taking hits with the best of them.  The management has made no bones about inserting him into drills at 100% tempo, they're not bringing him along slowly at all.

However, the most important thing to come out of first drills day was first-rounder DB Jimmy Smith; he's looked like he's been there for years--jamming recievers at the line, breaking up passes, and picking up the defense after only a handful of meetings.  He could actually out-start either Foxworth or Webb at CB.

Now to worry about the safeties.

[Neil]

Now to worry about the safeties.

Next man up.  Zbikowski or Nakamura will have to make plays.  I think that either one of them could step up for Landry, although I would have rather had Jim Leonhard there.

I'm more worried about the OL, which was an area that needed work last year.  Is Yanda going back inside as a guard to replace Chester?  I heard that Oher is going to the right side, so then who starts at left tackle?

We'll see about the RBs.  Ideally, Le'Ron would lose ten pounds or so and he'd pick up some hard-charging yards for the Ravens, sort of like a Jerome Bettis, but I think he's definitely going to be playing starting fullback for another team next year.  The Ravens will need to look hard at some of the other RB talent out there, especially some older guys that still have something in the tank, like Ricky Williams or something.

[CountDeMoney]

Now to worry about the safeties.

Next man up.  Zbikowski or Nakamura will have to make plays.  I think that either one of them could step up for Landry, although I would have rather had Jim Leonhard there.

Pfft, more Leonard love.  Whatever, cracker.  Nakumura and Zeebo are also UFAs, so they're shopping as well.  But I think Zeebo should be the starter.  There'll be a LOT of FA safeties out on the market, so their starting SS may be out there.

I'm more worried about the OL, which was an area that needed work last year.  Is Yanda going back inside as a guard to replace Chester?  I heard that Oher is going to the right side, so then who starts at left tackle?

Oher will be the starting LT as Gaither is going bye-bye.  They've had enough of him, and he insists on being an LT.
Yanda wants to play guard, but with the money they just gave him, he's going to play RT whether he likes it or not.
Oniel Cousins will probably be the starting RG.  I think a lot of their depth chart we won't know until the season starts.

We'll see about the RBs.  Ideally, Le'Ron would lose ten pounds or so and he'd pick up some hard-charging yards for the Ravens, sort of like a Jerome Bettis, but I think he's definitely going to be playing starting fullback for another team next year.  The Ravens will need to look hard at some of the other RB talent out there, especially some older guys that still have something in the tank, like Ricky Williams or something.

McClain has crowed about being a full-time ball carrier, not to the press, but to teammates and coaching for the last two seasons.  He's not the kind of back they want, and he doesn't want to play FB.
Personally, I think they should bring back McGahee.

[Barrister]

Has LFFL been set up yet?

[frunk]

Katmai hasn't finished raping us in Baseball.  Seriously, I put together a performance last week that would beat most of the other teams or at least be competitive, and I get shellacked 10-2.

[katmai]

Frunk I fear my fantasy baseball team will repeat the Mariners of 2001 and be all a mirage when it comes to post season.

Nd no Beeb, even after being hounded by you miscreants I haven't set up lffl yet, but will do so this week before I'm off to Kodiak.

[Neil]

Pfft, more Leonard love.  Whatever, cracker.  Nakumura and Zeebo are also UFAs, so they're shopping as well.  But I think Zeebo should be the starter.  There'll be a LOT of FA safeties out on the market, so their starting SS may be out there.

Leonhard was the man.  He got clutch turnovers and returned punts like a wild man.

Zbikowski and Nakamura have both been signed.  They were RFAs.

Oher will be the starting LT as Gaither is going bye-bye.  They've had enough of him, and he insists on being an LT.
Yanda wants to play guard, but with the money they just gave him, he's going to play RT whether he likes it or not.
Oniel Cousins will probably be the starting RG.  I think a lot of their depth chart we won't know until the season starts.

Yeah, you're probably right about the money, and Yanda was a must-keep.  The market is looking a bit thin for linemen, but we'll see what happens.  I always liked the idea of Birk, Grubb and Yanda as an interior line destroying guys, especially with Leach as a lead blocker, but I'll settle for anything as long as it works.  There have been a lot of blows over this free agent frenzy.  If they don't get Mason back, I don't know what I'll do.

McClain has crowed about being a full-time ball carrier, not to the press, but to teammates and coaching for the last two seasons.  He's not the kind of back they want, and he doesn't want to play FB.
Personally, I think they should bring back McGahee.

Well, good luck to him with that.  The best it's ever going to get for him was the 'triple threat' season with Rice and McGahee.

[Alcibiades]

Randy Moss retires.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d821266b6/article/moss-retiring-after-13-seasons-with-vikes-raiders-pats-titans?module=HP11_headline_stack

[derspiess]

Randy Moss retires.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d821266b6/article/moss-retiring-after-13-seasons-with-vikes-raiders-pats-titans?module=HP11_headline_stack

I'm sure this isn't the last we've heard from him.  He's the next OJ.

[katmai]

Him and tiger woods doing hertz commercials?

[Alcibiades]

Rough on Moss:

Moss not as great as he could have been
Numbers are great, but moodiness and petulance often overshadowed his talent


Randy Moss's retirement is surprising only because it took NFL teams this long to tire of his act.

Moss is a 34-year-old receiver whose best days are now behind him. He's a toxic malcontent who can drive coaches and teammates batty. For years, Moss was able to find suitors because his electric talent was impossible to ignore.

Today, he's just another unrealistic veteran with an oversized ego and an inability to understand why nobody wants to fall in love with him.

The reason Moss doesn't like the options available to him after 13 NFL seasons -- which was the explanation his agent, Joel Segal, gave for Moss leaving the game -- is that the demand for his services wasn't that great from the start. There were far too many big-name receivers on the free-agent market and the trading block for Moss to be a hot item.

The ones who signed quickly (such as the New York Jets' Santonio Holmes and the Seattle Seahawks' Sidney Rice) were younger than Moss. The older veterans who found homes more recently (such as the Jets' Plaxico Burress and the New England Patriots' Chad Ochocinco) seem far more willing to follow the company lines laid out for them by their new teams.

In fact, Burress' signing with the Jets proves how far Moss has fallen. New York was more willing to commit a one-year, $3 million deal to a player who's never made the Pro Bowl and spent the past two seasons in prison. What the Jets seemed to be saying was it didn't matter that Burress might be rusty and out of shape. More important to them was the reality that he had been a winner at some point in his career.

That description is one that should never be applied to Moss. For all of his impressive career numbers -- 954 receptions, 14,858 yards and 153 touchdowns -- he was a player who always competed on his own terms. At his best, he was the most dangerous receiver in the league, as he was during his first seven seasons with the Minnesota Vikings and his 2007 campaign with New England (when he set a league record with 23 touchdown receptions).

At his worst, he was the kind of diva who could demoralize teammates and coaches with his laziness and disinterest in doing his job.

Moss' 2010 season was emblematic of how big a jerk he could become. The Patriots traded him just four games into the regular season. The Vikings then dumped him after he spent four games with them. Then Moss wound up in a situation that once seemed unfathomable.

After the Tennessee Titans claimed him off waivers, they didn't even make an attempt at utilizing his talents. The only noise Moss made in Nashville -- where he caught just six passes in eight games -- came during the brief, testy media conference he held upon his arrival.

The message everybody was sending Moss last fall was that times had changed. He needed to become the kind of player who was more concerned about helping a team win than landing a fat contract. He needed to become the kind of player who was willing to block tirelessly and run routes hard when the ball wasn't thrown his way. The NFL can be a forgiving place for talents who still have something to offer. It eventually became all too clear that Moss found such compromises to be beneath him.

The irony here is that Moss always has been this way. It's just that his numbers and his highlights always helped obscure that fact. When fellow Patriots were raving about how great a teammate Moss was upon his arrival there in 2007, you just knew they might eat those words someday. Anybody who had seen Moss underachieve with the Oakland Raiders the previous two seasons had to know he might eventually return to his old, familiar habits.

As it turned out, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady was one of the first to notice his decline last summer. A league source said Brady was so concerned about Moss' lagging work ethic that he discussed it with Patriots head coach Bill Belichick in training camp. When Belichick decided that Moss would be fine, Brady became even more agitated after Moss dogged it on a couple routes during an early-season win over Miami.

According to the source, Brady told Belichick during that contest that the team could keep Moss but the receiver wasn't going to be seeing any passes again. Moss was working in Minnesota within days of that conversation.

What that anecdote also reveals is how his blatant disrespect for the game can wear on people's nerves. Moss has quit on teammates and he's given up on plays in the middle of games. He's actually quit so often in his career that it's fair to wonder how that habit will impact his Hall of Fame chances.

For those who trumpet him as a first-ballot lock, just consider the way other elite receivers have been treated by the voting process. Michael Irvin wasn't a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer, and he had three Super Bowl rings. Cris Carter and Tim Brown have caught more passes than Moss and they can't get anybody to give them a yellow jacket and a trip to Canton.

All Moss has going for him are the kind of numbers that make him seem like more than what he was. Once you get beyond that, you see a picture that is far more disturbing. That would be a player who could've been far greater than he ever was. That also would be a star who too often let moodiness and petulance undermine his dazzling ability.

But the most damning thing that can be said about Moss is something that will become more apparent as this season goes on, assuming he stays retired:

Now that he's decided to leave the game, it's doubtful anybody will actually miss him.

Harsh, but maybe true.

On a side note, what is the story with Chris Carter, drugs in his Philly days?

[CountDeMoney]

Very, very honest article and on point about Moss.

Chris Carter made some enemies in Philly, yes, but he's made more by being honest on ESPN.  Tim Brown was just a soild worker-bee who put up constant numbers, and his only fault was that he did it all for some really shitty Raiders teams.

[CountDeMoney]

ESPN to debut a new-fangled QB Rating system

How to identify NFL's best quarterbacks
By Mike Sando

The late Don Smith never claimed his passer-rating formula was perfect.

Quite the opposite, in fact.

"Some people call it a quarterback rating system, but that really is not what it is," Smith told me during a 2002 interview. "It's simply a passing statistic."

I've actually defended Smith's rating system because the quarterbacks with the highest ratings -- Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers led the way last season -- usually are the best quarterbacks. But there's so much more to quarterbacking than passing stats for touchdowns, interceptions, attempts, completions and yardage.

Game situations should count for something, and now they do.

With input from football people, including ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer, our statistical analysts have developed a 100-point ratings scale for quarterbacks taking into account advanced stats, game situations and relevant non-passing stats, including fumbles and sacks, to evaluate quarterbacks far more thoroughly. The methodology is complex -- one of the formula's key algorithms spans some 10,000 lines -- but the resulting "Total Quarterback Rating" (QBR for short) beats the old passer rating in every conceivable fashion. The ratings scale will debut this season.

I've been bugging the Stats & Information team for a sneak peak ever since learning former NBA statistical analyst Dean Oliver had joined our production analytics unit and was playing a prominent role in QBR development. Oliver, a Caltech grad with a Ph.D. in statistical applications, revolutionized how NBA teams use advanced statistics. Menlo College professor Ben Alamar, who has consulted with the San Francisco 49ers, is also part of the team.

Our stats team has been using game video to track stats relating to pressure, personnel, formation, game situation and more since 2008. The QBR stat represents a significant leap in harnessing those statistics for something more.

The old formula Smith created treated stats the same regardless of circumstance. A touchdown pass thrown against a prevent defense during a blowout defeat equals one thrown against pressure to win the game. A 5-yard completion on third-and-4 counts the same as a 5-yarder on third-and-15. A critical quarterback scramble, sack or fumble doesn't even factor.

"There is no way to statistically say how effective a guy is under fire," Smith lamented during our 2002 conversation. "None of that can be put into something like this."

Now it can, along with a whole lot more.

The QBR formula takes into account down, distance, field position, time remaining, rushing, passing sacks, fumbles, interceptions, how far each pass travels in the air, from where on the field the ball was thrown, yards after the catch, dropped balls, defensed balls, whether the quarterback was hit, whether he threw away the ball to avoid a sack, whether the pass was thrown accurately, etc. Each play carries "clutch weight" based on its importance to game outcome, as determined by analyzing those 60,000 plays since 2008. The stats adjust for quarterbacks facing an unusually high number of these situations.

Year of the Quarterback

ESPN has dedicated 2011 to examining one of the most crucial positions in all of sports -- the quarterback.

"If it is a running clock late in the game, maybe you only get a few yards here or there, that is the right football play to make," Jeff Bennett, senior director of ESPN's production analytics team, said Sunday. "We spent a month learning about ratings to make sure quarterbacks couldn't game the system, so they're not afraid to throw that deep pass at the end of the first half and risk an interception."

I've seen an outline for the rating system breaking down 2010 quarterbacks into six general categories, from top tier to poor. Precise rating numbers were not yet available. The quarterbacks under consideration broke down as follows:

    * Top tier: Brady, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Michael Vick, Rodgers and Drew Brees.
    * Well above average: Josh Freeman, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers.
    * Above average: Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub, David Garrard and Kerry Collins.
    * Around average: Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, Carson Palmer, Colt McCoy, Kyle Orton and Jon Kitna.
    * Below average: Shaun Hill, Jason Campbell, Jay Cutler, Matt Hasselbeck, Chad Henne, Donovan McNabb, Sam Bradford and Alex Smith.
    * Poor: Derek Anderson, Brett Favre and Jimmy Clausen.


ESPN plans to enlist several quarterbacks when introducing the stat during an hour-long "SportsCenter" special Friday at 8 p.m. ET. We'll be referencing the stat on the blogs and elsewhere. Bennett said he's allocating enough manpower to produce ratings on game days, a huge help for those of us analyzing player performances shortly after games.

"We want to reward a good football play," Bennett said.