The Great Arab Revolt Continues.

[jamesww]

Since my old thread died, I thought I start a new one.

So where do you think this will all end up ?   

Bloody carnage in Iran or maybe even Saudi Arabia and how might the 'International Community' respond ?


Yemen seems on the edge of a widespread civil war, Syria may be about to experience a serious government crackdown or the regime undertakes an unlikely and astonishing self-reform.

Meanwhile Jordan has deaths and clashes between demonstrators and govt. supporters and in Bahrain the security forces are 'disappearing' people in the the dead of night.

[Sheilbh]

Lord knows.

I can't believe that Algeria and Morocco are at the end of their revolts.  I heard in the office, from a client in Dubai, that the UAE (the UAE!) were getting a bit antsy about possible demonstrations today so had masses of police and helicopters out.  Also a guy at work who was recently in Saudi said it was interesting as all the Saudis he met were very enthusiastic about Egypt, Libya and even Bahrain.  He asked 'what about Saudi?' and they clammed up and said they like their king, he's a good king, a nice king.

I don't know that Yemen's going to fall into civil war.  From what I've read Saleh and the army are negotiating a way out under Saudi guidance - but there've been clashes.  Bahrain's revealed the reality of the GCC, I think.

It's hard not to be pretty awed and inspired by it all though. 

[jimmy olsen]

Lord knows.

I can't believe that Algeria and Morocco are at the end of their revolts.

Haven't really heard anything about Algeria or Morocco.

[Darth Wagtaros]

AL KEYADA takeover of the GCC, Egypt, and Turkey.

[Sheilbh]

Lord knows.

I can't believe that Algeria and Morocco are at the end of their revolts.

Haven't really heard anything about Algeria or Morocco.

Algeria's been on-off since Tunisia.  Apparently they're going to end the state of emergency 'soon'.  So far it lacks the cohesion of a daily protests.

Morocco's been like Jordan, but I believe around 50 000 turned out in Casablanca, Rabat and Fes over the weekend.

[jamesww]

.....
It's hard not to be pretty awed and inspired by it all though.

Yes, I think William Hague was on the money when he described this as the most important event of the early 21st cenury, in this recent speech.

[Legbiter]

Full blown pluralistic democracy is not on the cards. the best that can be hoped for is something in the Kemalist tradition and if not, various Islamoid weirdbeards.

[HisMajestyBOB]

Hopefully Morocco and Jordan can placate them with reforms or Constitutional Monarchy. Neither are IIRC as oppressive as some of the others, and it would be nice for the pro-American monarchs to be secure.

[Sheilbh]

Full blown pluralistic democracy is not on the cards. the best that can be hoped for is something in the Kemalist tradition and if not, various Islamoid weirdbeards.

I wouldn't be so sure that things are so simple.  And, I think, that to some extent within the Middle East Islam is the answer.

Yes, I think William Hague was on the money when he described this as the most important event of the early 21st cenury, in this recent speech.

I think it could be.  I think it's important of itself.  I think it is also something of a rebuke to the 'Beijing consensus' and suggests to me that the demand for dignity can't be economically wished away.  But I feel this is a true revolutionary moment.  There are counter-revolutionaries and things could be rolled back..  At the same time I think there's potential for 'permanent' revolutionary states of escalating extremism.  There could be a social and political reordering of the Middle East or there could be so much reshuffling.

[KRonn]

All these revolts and protests are really interesting. Per country, who knows what they'll wind up with. But it does seem that they're protesting what they have for governance, and there doesn't seem to be too much of it that's anti-West; no slogans, flag burnings, etc. They say "democracy, freedom", which I could assume to also mean more of their religious views in place. But we also see some saying, as in Egypt, that they don't want something like Iran's Theocracy. And the movements seem to be more secular, or at least not a protest for more religious control. The religious extremists, or just the more conservative religious types may gain power in some cases, but it just doesn't seem like religious fervor is driving these revolts.

I have to say, too frigging bad to the various leaders, dictators, etc. While they've been fighting the West, Israel and modernity, partly as a way to find common enemies., their people were apparently moving in other directions, having had enough of the daily life they're subjected to under these tyrannical regimes. I feel like the people have seen through the veneer of their leaders and finally have had enough, risking a lot in some cases to have their say.

[Josquius]

Things are looking up. I really thought Libya was fucked for a week or so back there, I just didn't see the UN managing to work on a decent time scale and air support being sent in. Now its been done...well it'll take a while but I'm fairly confident the rebels will win out somehow. At the least they won't be grinded into the dust and the country returned to business as usual.
That things have taken a turn for the better in Libya seems to have served as some encouragment for people elsewhere.
Yemen in particular is seeming potentially dodgy. Isn't it already in the middle of a civil war and having trouble with al-quaida and pirates and all sorts? I've no clue what's going to happen there. But I doubt it'll be tidy...
Syria kicking off was unexpected, it seemed pretty tight, though I'm glad, its the one Arab nation I'd really like to see go under.
I just hope some monarchs see the writing on the wall and start reforming. It woiuld be sad for the entire region to turn republican.

[Sheilbh]

Hopefully Morocco and Jordan can placate them with reforms or Constitutional Monarchy. Neither are IIRC as oppressive as some of the others, and it would be nice for the pro-American monarchs to be secure.

I'd happily see the House of Saud fearing the people at their gates.

I think that Jordan and Morocco are a little more free and, as monarchies, enjoy a little more legitimacy.  The problem there,  I think, is one of corruption and indulgence.  In Morocco there's a specific word for the shadow state of extremely wealthy, very influential courtiers and in Jordan the Queen celebrated her 40th birthday with a multi-million party in Wadi Rum, which reeks a little of celebrating Persepolis's birthday, it was so over the top that tribal leaders basically said (openly) that the King should rein her in and that she was getting a bit like Imelda.

But I think they've got a better chance of surviving so long as they bend with the wind, as monarchies must.

[KRonn]

Yeah, I hope Jordan and Morrocco can weather this storm, make some changes for the people and better, more democratic government. Those are among the least authoritarian regimes. And places like Qatar, UAE. Going back a few years ago Qatar was on the way to a more democratic government already, as I recall. Unless something has changed. UAE is already pretty open, and a decently governed nation, isn't it? Small nations, not major players though.

[Martinus]

Destiny of all monarchs:

[Tamas]

The philosophical question here is, of course, should we care for universal values at the expense of our well beign? And on "we" I mean people in the first world (well, or the margins of it, like me and Mart)

Example: Saud Arabia has a despicable governance. But are we ready to see our currently VERY fragile economy panic and crumble as the mob takes that country over? Same goes for the Gulf States.

Are we ready and willing to pay the price of arab democracies? Which will be constant unpredictability in the flow of spi... oil, rampant anti-semite populism, and a huge flood of immigrants?