What are the odds? DG? Little help?

[ulmont]

He's not talking about 5 dice rolling 10s, he's talking about 10 dice, with 5 of them coming up 10s. 

You're right.  I thought he got more seriously diced than that.

[Eddie Teach]

That's a hundred times as unlikely as what did happen.

[frunk]

You're right.  I thought he got more seriously diced than that.

It's one in a thousand (actually 1 in 672 (0.001488035) or so if you pull more digits), which is certainly ugly but not nearly as bad as one in a hundred thousand.

I think the worst run I saw was my opponent in a game of Memoir 44', with a ~ one in 2000 chance of missing.  Still wasn't quite enough for me to get the next round of the tourney though (I won but not by a high enough score), but it did ruin his chances.

[DGuller]

If X is the number of 10s:

((9/10)^(10-X)) * ((1/10)^X) * (10!/(X!*(10-X)!))

0: .349
1: .387
2: .194
3: .057
4: .011
5: .001

This is correct.  It's quite unlikely, but unlikely events do have to happen some of the times.

[Slargos]

I once played a game of risk against my sister, and attacked Russia with 12 armies against her lone one.

12 consecutive rolls of defensive 6 later, I had to call off the attack on account of all my men lying dead on the field.

Needless to say, I've avoided playing games of chance against her ever since.

[DGuller]

I once played a game of risk against my sister, and attacked Russia with 12 armies against her lone one.

12 consecutive rolls of defensive 6 later, I had to call off the attack on account of all my men lying dead on the field.

Needless to say, I've avoided playing games of chance against her ever since.

Now that is a highly improbable event, about a 1 in 2 billion.  Are you sure you're not exaggerating, or that the dice actually had something other than a 6 on it?

[Habbaku]

Slargos is a pretty and unique snowflake.

[Barrister]

I once played a game of risk against my sister, and attacked Russia with 12 armies against her lone one.

12 consecutive rolls of defensive 6 later, I had to call off the attack on account of all my men lying dead on the field.

Needless to say, I've avoided playing games of chance against her ever since.

Now that is a highly improbable event, about a 1 in 2 billion.  Are you sure you're not exaggerating, or that the dice actually had something other than a 6 on it?

I dunno - the thing about Risk is you roll so many freaking dice in a game that weird streaks are bound to happen.

But yeah, I can find that Slargy's sister beating him on 12 dice rolls is a lot more likely then rolling 12 consecutive sixes.

[Slargos]

You don't have to believe me.

I didn't believe it myself, and I was there, watching in horror as it happened.

Highly improbable doesn't mean impossible.

Call me a liar if you will, though, I'm not going to invest any prestige in it. It's just a funny story. 

[Razgovory]

Err, we learned this in college it can't be that hard... altough I dont remember much of it : (

I remember learning these things in middle school.  I thought you commie countries were always ahead of us in math.

[Eddie Teach]

If you have 12 armies, she can only win 11 times before you have to call off the attack.

[jimmy olsen]

You don't have to believe me.

I didn't believe it myself, and I was there, watching in horror as it happened.

Highly improbable doesn't mean impossible.

Call me a liar if you will, though, I'm not going to invest any prestige in it. It's just a funny story. 

Maybe she used loaded dice?

[frunk]

If you have 12 armies, she can only win 11 times before you have to call off the attack.

Which means 9 attacks with three dice, 1 attack with two dice and 1 attack with one die.   Assuming she won and not with just 6s that's still only a 1 in ~66526 chance of happening.  If Slargos was a moron and only attacked with one die at a time it drops precipitously to 1 in ~376.

[Tamas]

Err, we learned this in college it can't be that hard... altough I dont remember much of it : (

I remember learning these things in middle school.  I thought you commie countries were always ahead of us in math.

Yeah now that you mention it, we did cover it in high school, but did not spend much time on it, unlike in college.

[Slargos]

If you have 12 armies, she can only win 11 times before you have to call off the attack.

I obviously had 13 armies in the territory from which I was attacking, if I was attacking with 12.

I don't think I've ever played with a rule that says you can't attack with one army.

Edit: Nevermind. Difference of terminology. I've always regarded "attacking" armies as total -1.