Israel-Hamas War 2023

[Savonarola]

Big job for Biden tomorrow. Imagine Trump flying out there to make a deal with everyone.

You mean like the Abraham Accord?

"Don't underestimate Joe's ability to fuck things up." - President Obama

Diplomacy isn't going to fix anything in this situation, no matter who is President, the probably that Biden can fix anything (other than some bribes for his family members) is zero.

Israel either invades Gaza and crushes the Palestinian's will to continue fighting, or there is another half-measure that just creates another temporary cease fire.  Most likely just as Israel starts to make progress the rest of the world will pressure Israel to stop short of victory, which means nothing will be resolved and the can will get kicked further down the road until the next attack will be even worse.

Good to see you again, Hans

[Jacob]

Hello Hans

You haven't aged a day.

[Admiral Yi]

Howdy Hans.

Heard on NPR that PA, Jordan and Egypt (?) cancelled their meetings with Joe because of the hospital.

[Tamas]

Howdy Hans.

Heard on NPR that PA, Jordan and Egypt (?) cancelled their meetings with Joe because of the hospital.

Also protests in Amman, Beirut and the West Bank.

I feel like events may start spiraling out of control. I don't Israel can stop here, that would embolden terrorists massively and in any case it would end Bibi's reign meaning he would end up in prison.

So it may come down to Iran whether this escalates further.

[FunkMonk]

Yeah, hard to see how Joe comes away from this with anything that looks like a win. In fact, from a purely political perspective, it could make him look humiliated. I guess he has to look like he at least tried.

[Tamas]

As things stand in this very moment, this looks like a massive Hamas and Iran win. Not even Jordan wants to be seen negotiating with Israel and it's allies, can't see the Saudis signing any agreements with them in the foreseeable.

[grumbler]

The reality is that Gaza freely and fairly elected Hamas their leaders in 2006. Granted it was a long time ago, and I would hope that Gazans would vote differently today, but we cannot pretend like there is zero evidence the Gazans support Hamas and their aims.

Hamas received 40% of the votes in the 2006 elections, which was a plurality, not a majority.  Seventy-five percent of their own voters supported the idea that Hamas should drop its opposition to the existence of Israel, and the main reasons they cited in voting for Hamas was the expected reduction in corruption.  The election was not an endorsement of Hamas terrorism or the aims of Hamas.

on the other hand: you don't vote for a piece of a (terror-)party's program, but for all of it.

The Party they elected was the Change and Reform list, which espoused no terrorism.  C&R, which was the political face of Hamas, campaigned on domestic issues.

[Admiral Yi]

And Hans, you've clearly become even more unhinged.

[Jacob]

Twitter post claiming to show Palestinian fired missile breaking apart, with shrapnel hitting the Al-Ahli Arab Hospital's yard: https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1714390254935851272

I can't speak to the trustworthiness of the source.

[Razgovory]

Twitter post claiming to show Palestinian fired missile breaking apart, with shrapnel hitting the Al-Ahli Arab Hospital's yard: https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1714390254935851272

I can't speak to the trustworthiness of the source.

I can't tell anything from that film.

[mongers]

Twitter post claiming to show Palestinian fired missile breaking apart, with shrapnel hitting the Al-Ahli Arab Hospital's yard: https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1714390254935851272

I can't speak to the trustworthiness of the source.

There's a close up mobile phone video of the explosion at the hospital, it is preceded by a loud whooshing sound of the projectile.

I very much doubt a few 10s of kgs of explosives in a rocket or part of one could do that much damage, seems to be more consistent with a much larger AS missile or bomb, something in the 100s of kg range.

[chipwich]

One of the criticism levelled by the "but it is an occupation!" crowd is European leaders being too pro-Israel, SHOCKINGLY taking the attacked side in a case of mass murder and kidnapping. Well that basic logic aside it has just sunk in that many of the victims and the kidnapped people are citizens of these various countries. Like one of the trophy slaves hostages showcased in a recent Hamas video was a young French-Israeli girl. So I really don't know how e.g. Macron can be expected to go all "well yeah our citizens have been murdered and kidnapped, but there are two sides to this thing you know".

My favourite example was a pair of articles on the Guardian put almost next to each other. One was the news about some Labour councillors quitting in protest of Starmer being not enough "but it's an occupation", including the first Muslim lady councillor of Manchester, and the other article was photos of two British-Israeli teenagers assumed to have been kidnapped by Hamas, since they have not been found unlike their parents in their 80s (including a pro-Palestinian pacifist journalist father) who were found murdered.

Is there a perception among whomever you speak to that Orban made the right call in adopting a siege mentality during the migrant crisis?

[chipwich]

Twitter post claiming to show Palestinian fired missile breaking apart, with shrapnel hitting the Al-Ahli Arab Hospital's yard: https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1714390254935851272

I can't speak to the trustworthiness of the source.

There's a close up mobile phone video of the explosion at the hospital, it is preceded by a loud whooshing sound of the projectile.

I very much doubt a few 10s of kgs of explosives in a rocket or part of one could do that much damage, seems to be more consistent with a much larger AS missile or bomb, something in the 100s of kg range.

What is your knowledge regarding the relative destruction regarding missile payloads?

[mongers]

Mahmoud Abbas is toast.

[DGuller]

I've seen an argument made that we shouldn't judge the destructive potential of a rocket by what it does when it lands in Israel.  If it lands right after launch, you have all that fuel meant to get you to Israel exploding right there on the spot.  Plus, it would never be beyond the pale for Hamas to stockpile munitions at hospitals, precisely because Israel wouldn't want to bomb them, although it seems like you need a whole bunch of low probability events to come together for an errant projectile to find just the place where munitions are stockpiled.