Israel-Hamas War 2023

[Hamilcar]

Biden warning "against any other party hostile to Israel seeking advantage in this situation" is a pretty clear threat for Iran to back off.

[Josquius]

They're not comic book villains, they're actual villains who sincerely believe that it's their mission to eradicate the state of Israel and the jews living there. And after that: elsewhere.
That ideology is quite clear as to what the end goal for the world is.
Intent matters, regardless of wether or not the means are there.
So stop being an apologist for Evil.

OK. Sure. Let's say you're right and they really are as stupid as you think they are.

How then did they stay in power this long? How did they get there in the first place?

This kind of dissonance in the ignorant far right view of the world is so amazing. Your enemies are simultaneously impure, stupid and weak... Yet a massive massive threat that need to be tackled far more strongly than any of the corrupt weaklings of the world today are able to.

Tyr, Corbyn is gone.  You don't have to defend Hamas anymore.

Raz, Trump is gone. You don't need to pretend hostile forces are simpletons anymore.

[Josquius]

I agree with a lot of that.

I also think part of this - and part of why this is such a strategic shock to Israel - is that Israel had largely nullified the threat from Hamas. Gaza was contained, they could fire a few rockets if they wanted and even in that context Iron Dome broadly protected them. Plus from what I understand there was confidence that Israel's intelligence was very good on what Hamas would do. I think, and I could be wrong on this, that that secure context is part of why Israeli politics has gone as it has - secure societies can afford to have massive confrontations over core constitutional issues, they can afford to send the IDF to mainly guard existing and growing settlements, they can pander more and more to ultra-Orthodox parties with broad religious draft exemptions etc.

I could be wrong but I wonder if the response may be key to the future of Israeli politics. If he goes down the national unity route and security (and service) becomes a key issue again in a way it hasn't in recent years then that may well sideline the more extreme elements in Netanyahu's coalition. If not then you have very extreme parts of that coalition who even before today advocated what amounts to ethnic cleansing, and groups who represent those with draft exemptions in the IDF and I think it might head in quite a compustible (and bad) way.

From a Hamas pov I think that "nullification" created a challenge. If they intended to continue they needed an ability to attack Israel that they couldn't just swat away. There have been the outrages against civilians but I almost wonder if as shocking to the Israeli context will be the border posts overrun, IDF equipment stolen - all in core, 1948 Israeli territory (not Golan, Sinai, West Bank settlements etc) from a threat they thought they'd basically managed. I think that's why Hezbollah weren't aware is precisely because Hamas needed surprise. It's almost existential - if your basis for existing is fighting Israel and Israel has basically penned you in and developed a shield that blocks attacks, then you either adapt or basically stop existing/cede your role. Perhaps part of it is also in a way an "action of the deed" thing: no matter how secure Israel feels, it isn't - Hamas (and others) will keep working on new ways to attack. It is probably also something that's going to be very difficult to repeat - though I imagine they're not unprepared in Gaza for retaliation which they will expect to be more than just a few airstrikes back.

Sounds sensible. The other post on the coming reckoning in the west bank too...
So hamas know gaza is fucked and they're pulling this one to try and make themselves the power in the west bank when shit goes down there(hopefully now rather than when Israel decides)

[OttoVonBismarck]

National Unity Government is being formed:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu proposes that opposition parties Yesh Atid and National Unity enter an emergency government following Hamas's devastating surprise attack Saturday morning.

Netanyahu makes the offer during a meeting with Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid and National Unity party leader Benny Gantz held earlier today, saying such a government would be the same in format as the Levi Eshkol government then-opposition leader Menachem Begin joined before the Six Day War in 1967.

Gantz says he is considering entering such a government for the duration of the war but insists that government would "deal with security challenges alone" and in a manner that would allow "substantive partnership and influence over decision-making in relevant forums" for his party.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I agree w/JR's view--this is desperation by Hamas.

What the final straw was, I don't know. I think any drama over the Al Aqsa Mosque is probably not the real motivation here, it is much more likely to be Israel's improving normalization of relations with Arab states that have historically been Palestinian patrons.

What Hamas expects, I can't say. The fact that this was born of desperation of what they understood to be an eroding position, means they were probably gambling heavily. Most likely their goal is far afield of what is likely to happen--which I think is often going to be the case when a group like Hamas finally decides conditions are such it has to take a big gamble.

My hunch is Hamas simply underestimates the degree to which Arab states like KSA, UAE...are just mostly "done" with Palestine. They don't really care. Those states aren't democratic, so even if they have people in the "street" who are foaming at the mouth pro-Palestine, the plutocrats who run those States have long been showing they want normalized relations with Israel. They view a friendly Israel as an important economic ally, and important in helping balance power in the region vis-a-vis forces like Iran.

Saudi Arabia in particular seems to be trying to cool "tensions" with everyone around it, and I think of all the pieces on the chess board the brutal reality is KSA cares less about Palestine than any of the other pieces. They are the ultimate "worthless pawn" in the minds of the Gulf Plutocrats.

Palestine's old protectors--Jordan and Egypt; well Egypt long ago made its peace and is firmly enmeshed in a system of receiving Western military aid. Jordan has moved very close to the United States and the West in the last 30 years, and has increasingly normalized relations with Israel. I just don't see Jordan going back the other way.

I think Hamas probably has people who realize there is no real hope for their cause in its present form, but it probably has a lot of people who think it is better to try SOMETHING, even if the odds of success are in single digit percents, than to just "surrender" to being outmaneuvered by Israel.

I go back to believing any viable Palestinian opposition has to be predicated on some form of peaceful resistance. This isn't America in Afghanistan, where you can weary out the public and we'll pull our troops home. This is Israel's home. They are never going anywhere, and the more you make them afraid the harder they are going to hit--and I worry to think how far that response may go with the current Israeli government. I worry if things like this push the government even further to the right where it will go.

I think Israel is still too far in the orbit of the West and the United States to just start genociding with abandon like the Azeri are in Nagorno-Karabakh (although it should be noted Azerbaijan has historically received significant U.S. military aid since the early 2000s--but America has long seemed to take a position of strategic indifference to the specifics of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, whilst trying to court both sides.)

But where does Israel go from here? I repeat it won't be back to the status quo.

I have seen some Hamas people saying on TV they expect to exchange all the hostages for Palestinian prisoners. I think that will hopefully happen, but it also suggests Hamas may be very deluded and think  that this will "simmer down" shortly and they'll go back to the status quo ante, Hamas will walk away with pride + prestige and freed hostages.

At the very least I suspect few meaningful high rises are going to remain in Gaza city after this. Israel has already felled 4 and appears inclined to continue. I suspect all or nearly all work permits for Gazans are done--the entire border with Gaza will basically be shutdown. None of the Gazans who had been eking out a living working during the day in Israel will be allowed to continue to do so. How much worse things get than that I don't know, but I think that is baseline, and Israel has no intentions of stopping there.

[Sheilbh]

National Unity Government is being formed:

I think that's good and agree with Gantz's reservation of what that means.

But the more I read about what happened at different points the more I think that after a period of national unity and resolve - there are going to be very, very serious questions about how this happened for Netanyahu's government. For example this sounds like there's basically two kibbutzes that may basically be in hostage situations and again this is in core 1948 Israeli territory and from Gaza which is not some unexpected, novel front:

'Severe hostage situation' in two places in southern Israel

Israeli army spokesman Richard Hecht has given reporters an update on the situation in southern Israel.

Fighting is still going on at 22 separate locations on Israeli territory after Hamas militants attacked early on Saturday.

He says a "severe hostage situation" is going on at Kibbutz Be'eri and Ofakim. Earlier, we reported that Hamas militants have taken both Israeli soldiers and civilians hostage, in an unprecedented situation.

Israeli media report that Hamas militants are still fighting the army at the police station in Sderot. However, a number of other towns and communities have been secured, reports say.

[Hamilcar]

Netanyahu in his address told Gaza residents to "flee" because "We will turn all Hamas hiding places into Rubble."

[OttoVonBismarck]

As I understand it, that may refer to the high-rises which are known Hamas C&C centers. Supposedly the IDF has issued repeated warnings to evacuate the high rises (which unfortunately also contain many civilian apartments) before leveling them, but undoubtedly we will see lots of Gazan civilians killed as well.

In terms of the security failure, my early reading is the border with Gaza wasn't that hardened--maybe the wrong term, more it was "less hardened" than in years past, and obviously they allowed a good number of Gazans to cross over on work permits regularly. The Israelis had shifted to more of an "intelligence focused" security around Gaza (they previously had a more robust military presence, if I understand correctly.) Supposedly Israeli intelligence was so deeply enmeshed inside of Gaza and in Hamas, they felt like they well knew Hamas moves. They had successfully predicted and stopped, or prepared for, a number of other Hamas moves in the recent past.

The fact that this appears to have been planned and executed with Israel's security network that it invested so much faith in apparently knowing nothing, means Hamas may have had a better read on who was compromised than Israel thought, probably fed them disinformation or kept compromised people out of the discussion. The fact their organization was able to stage and launch this and no one in the Israeli intelligence system knew shows that the "intelligence network" concept for keeping the Gazan border safe will likely be considered a strategic failure by Israel.

That is why I am guessing whatever happens, Gazan work permits are a thing of the past, when the active fighting stops (and FWIW, I don't have any realistic hope that is anytime this week or this month) I suspect Israel will basically only allow humanitarian assistance to go in, on a very limited basis, and almost no Gazans out for any reason (which again--despite its reputation as being an infamous "open air prison", previously lots of Gazans on work permits were allowed to cross over every day.)

You will probably see increased structural militarization of the border too, which it is a militarized border already, but obviously you can build more walls, trenches, etc.

[Tamas]

Israeli Defense Minister said they'll "change reality on the ground in Gaza for the next 50 years".

IDF tanks being carried toward Gaza: https://twitter.com/i/status/1710746799932121404

[crazy canuck]

It looks like Hamas is willing to sacrifice Gaza and perhaps themselves in order to prevent Saudi Arabia from regularizing its relationship with Israel.  And as a side effect, I suppose, create chaos.

[Sheilbh]

On security failure there's the intelligence side and I think there was an element of hubris around Iron Dome plus their intelligence.

But the thing I'm seeing Israelis point to is that there was only a skeleton force in Southern Israel and around Gaza because most of the IDF was deployed to the West Bank. From what I've seen that's being tied very much to Netanyahu and in particular his extreme parts of his coalition. I've also seen Israelis absolutely raging about videos of ultra-Orthodox dancing in the streets today as part of the holidays despite what's happened and the state of emergency - particularly as they also have exemptions from the national call up/mobilisation.

[viper37]

Traditional Islamic extremist shit of trying to bring on such a harsh Israeli response it brings the population onto their side/moves forward the apocalyptic war of civilizations?

Something like that.  It's the only play they have left that I can see.

Israel is slowly chipping away at Palestinian territory and will keep doing it anyway, no matter what.  They can not win by attacking like that, they can only bring a few more Israelis down with them.

[Valmy]

Sucks for all the innocent people who are going to die.

I guess Hamas realized their position was unsustainable. I never really understood what Hamas' endgame plan was anyway. The only hope for the Palestinians was to somehow force or negotiate concessions from Israel but their tactics make either of those possibilities impossible.

[Legbiter]

National Unity Government is being formed:

I think that's good and agree with Gantz's reservation of what that means.

But the more I read about what happened at different points the more I think that after a period of national unity and resolve - there are going to be very, very serious questions about how this happened for Netanyahu's government

Yeah.

[OttoVonBismarck]

It looks like Hamas is willing to sacrifice Gaza and perhaps themselves in order to prevent Saudi Arabia from regularizing its relationship with Israel.  And as a side effect, I suppose, create chaos.

FWIW I was always very skeptical the Biden-admin mediated "mega deal" was ever going to happen. The only way KSA can sign on to a big public deal like that was if Israel made concessions on Palestine. Even before this, with Netanyahu's current far right coalition...I just don't think that was in the cards. While I had mixed reports of "progress being made" here and there, I also regularly heard mixed reports that Netanyahu's coalition partners viciously opposed any deal with concessions and would have torpedoed any attempted deal along those lines.

I think what was always more likely to happen is Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize more "quietly", likely with more back channel cooperation at first, maybe eventually small announcements involving some economic deals and things like that. The only party I think who massively benefits from a big public one off deal was the American administration, as a feather in Biden's cap.

A big public deal without Israeli concessions would harm KSA's monarchy too much in its standing with its own hardline population and other Arab groups, and any sort of concessions would have endangered Netanyahu's ability to hold his coalition together.

Whilst I think the narrative will quickly become that these attacks torpedoed the deal, this Israeli administration, I think was very unlikely to ever finalize a real deal along the lines Biden wanted (which would have included a ratcheting down of pressure on Palestine and numerous meaningful concessions to the Palestinians.)

The way Israeli hardliners see it is they have gotten along just fine without normalized relations with KSA for 75 odd years, why give up things that really matter to them to change something that has been a de facto norm their entire lives?