Israel-Hamas War 2023

[Razgovory]

Is the reverse true?  Are Palestinian actions the cause of the rise of the far-right in Israel?

It is an interesting question.  I think the peace process in the 80s was more of a causal factor.  It was a right wing extremist who assassinated the Israeli PM in response to Israel coming close to finding a resolution with the Palestinians. 

You'd think the constant rocket attacks, suicide bombings, armed gunmen and casual murder would harden the hearts of the Israelis.  Nope, it was the prospect of the peace in the 1980's that turned them to the right.  Oh those perfidious Jews!

[Razgovory]

Unfortunately the decapitated babies claim has been republished in Times of Israel, Al Jazeera, and in official statements by the IDF. Whilst I have chosen not to view them, there are currently some real bad subreddits on reddit that apparently have some pictures as well.

That's fucking grim

It's not the first time they've done that.

[Barrister]

I don't follow your logic.  How does massive reprisal accomplish anything other than ensuring that there will be further reprisals against Israel well into the future.

The logic is that if Israel hits them hard enough, they'll think twice about doing it again.

Whether that logic holds up in the long term or whether it escalates the cycle of violence is another question. But the fundamental logic is one of deterrence based on overwhelming and destructive violence in response to attacks.

Personally I believe that ultimately Hamas - or successor organizations if Hamas is eradicated - are going to be willing and able to keep going in the face of anything Israel is able and willing to do.

So I deal with the principle of deterrence all the time in the context of criminal law.

Deterrence is quite obviously a less than perfect solution.  Criminals frequently commit crimes even knowing the risk of going to jail is high.

But the absence of deterrence is even worse.  If criminals know they can commit a crime without consequence, the rate of that crime shoots up.

This often comes up with shoplifting.  Sometimes stores go "it's only stuff, we don't want our employees to be hurt, so let's not try to physically stop shoplifters".  Which is a perfectly rational analysis.  Problem is if/when it becomes common knowledge that a given store won't stop shoplifters that store becomes a magnet for shoplifters.

So some level of Israeli deterrence is almost certainly necessary and required - even though nobody is under any illusions it will stop all future attacks.

[OttoVonBismarck]

FWIW in regard to the earlier comment that Hamas is going to "shift" opinion its way over the Israeli bombings....I don't think so at all. I won't pretend I'm working with aggregate data or anything, but across Reddit, X nee Twitter, Facebook etc, I have never seen so many English speakers posting that they want to see "Gaza destroyed", cheering on images of apartment blocs blowing up etc.

I have even seen in some leftist subs on reddit people posting "I always supported Palestine, but now I want them all to die." The thing is, the sort of brutality, ISIS type brutality, that Hamas engaged in is incredibly emotion-driving.

Westerners have largely learned to "block out" cities being bombed. For most millennials who grew up on Iraq and Afghanistan, and Gen Z, they have been seeing nondescript images of third world countries being blown up their entire lives. It just doesn't resonate.

Pictures of vibrant young people being hacked apart by monsters, babies being beheaded, dead women's bodies being paraded around while Gazans cheer on gleefully--that is a picture of barbarism many Westerners were isolated from and it will not be easy for them to forget. And most are feeling little to no sympathy for the same Gazans (in their mind) who were cheering on a few days ago crying now because their house is gone.

[Legbiter]

Unfortunately the decapitated babies claim has been republished in Times of Israel, Al Jazeera, and in official statements by the IDF. Whilst I have chosen not to view them, there are currently some real bad subreddits on reddit that apparently have some pictures as well.

The really gnarly stuff was from a couple of days ago on twitter (like that German rave festival chick being terrorized before her desecrated body was shown laid out in Gaza street being spat on, captives being tortured and executed, grannies set on fire, etc) but that's thankfully been cleaned up. Seeing (and hearing) these clips is harrowing so don't go looking for them. They'll be seared into my mind, probably for as long as I will live.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Yep, I haven't seen any of them. I saw enough bad stuff earlier in my life in terms of battlefield images and videos etc that I have zero desire to add more of that to my brain. I know enough to know what it looks like and don't need to see more of it.

[Barrister]

Yeah, I've seen enough crime scene photos from work - I don't need to seek that shit out on my own time.

[viper37]

It's not just an Israel/Palestine thing IMO. I've come to the conclusion that a third of humanity are just nasty, plain & simple. You may quibble on the exact numbers, but I reckon that figure is a good ballpark estimate.

That third of humanity is all on X now.

[Sheilbh]

Israeli government now acknowledging there were warnings from Egyptian intelligence - also being reported by other Israeli media.

Also reports in Israeli and American media that Israeli intelligence made some warnings to Netanyahu and his government, but these were dismissed as being part of/reflective of the "protest movement" - a reminder that Netanyahu had been attacking senior Shin Bet and military figures for warning that the protests were dividing Israelis in a way that was dangerous for Israel's security. Still to see if that is picked up more widely.

[FunkMonk]

Unfortunately the decapitated babies claim has been republished in Times of Israel, Al Jazeera, and in official statements by the IDF. Whilst I have chosen not to view them, there are currently some real bad subreddits on reddit that apparently have some pictures as well.

The really gnarly stuff was from a couple of days ago on twitter (like that German rave festival chick being terrorized before her desecrated body was shown laid out in Gaza street being spat on, captives being tortured and executed, grannies set on fire, etc) but that's thankfully been cleaned up. Seeing (and hearing) these clips is harrowing so don't go looking for them. They'll be seared into my mind, probably for as long as I will live.

Jesus that is horrifying.

Somehow I doubt the Israelis will be interested in trading 1,000 terrorists for 1 captured Israeli, as was alluded to earlier.

[DGuller]

I was listening to Lex Fridman podcast a month or so ago.  He first had an episode with Bibi, and then had an episode with some Palestinian activist.  For a while he really had me thinking, making me reconsider what I thought about the conflict.  Then the conversation went to terrorism, and he went into the usual spiel about the hypocrisy of calling Palestinians terrorists for doing the same things that are accepted by others.

At no point did I hear him mention deliberate attacking of civilians at all, you know, the kind of thing that you may be called a terrorist for.  Deliberately attacking Israeli civilians and killing anyone that for some reason happens to be defenseless is something Palestinians have done for at least decades.  That can earn you a bad rep in the West.  At that point I stopped listening and felt a little stupid for allowing myself to be somewhat taken in by him at first.  Not surprisingly, his Twitter messages in the last few days seem to be exactly what you would expect:  heavy on blasting Israel, avoiding any acknowledgement of the barbaric nature of what was done to invite that, and even mocking people for denouncing the Hamas attack.

[viper37]

It is actually possible Hamas is less corrupt than Fatah. Fatah and the PLO on a percentile scale, are basically at "100%" corruption. So even if Hamas is "only" 75% corrupt, that is still a significant amount less corrupt than Fatah. Now, Hamas is also a violent terrorist group, which definitely outweighs any positives in their being less corrupt administratively.

I have long abandoned trying to argue that point with any pro-Palestinian, or anyone with Palestinian relatives.  It's too sensible.

But the point is moot.  Having had one free election in 17 years and making one bad choice among two bad ones, it's hard to hold everyone there guilty.  They chose war at that point in time instead of the peace process and it cost them dearly.  Doesn't mean they would make the same choice 5, 10, 15 years after that.  Americans didn't perpetually elect the GOP after 2000 (well, not everywhere).  

I guess it would also be really hard to quantify actual support today with all the purges the Hamas did toward the supporters of Fatah.  Many survivors fled afterward.  Those that remain are either loyal or disinclined to oppose the Hamas, even verbally.

[Threviel]

They live sent a granny being killed on her own private Facebook feed...

It's just so grim. I've been avoiding gruesome media, but the texts are grim enough. I have trouble finding historical examples of this kind of shit. It's Assyria level barbarism.

[mongers]

The Beirut summer 1982 siege could be a useful guide to what might happen now.

Then the Israeli's cornered a Palestinian terrorist group in a heavily built up urban area up against the sea. IIRC West Beirut's population  was under a 10th of Gaza's and by area similarly smaller, I think it took over a month for the siege to be ended.
So I can see Palestinians killed toping 10,000, perhaps as high as 50,000 if the Israelis try to end it with occupation. 

And of course Arafat and the PLO were people you or some intermediators Could negotiate with, Hamas in contrast  will not go into exile, so I expect them to expire in the rubble surround by mountains of corpses.

[viper37]

You'd think the constant rocket attacks, suicide bombings, armed gunmen and casual murder would harden the hearts of the Israelis.  Nope, it was the prospect of the peace in the 1980's that turned them to the right.

It must be nice to view the world in black and white like you do.  Bad guys, good guys. Cobra on one side, GI Joes on the other.  Everything is so clear, so simple.  No nuance, no grey areas.  Palestinians, all bad, Israelis, all good.