Italian Politics

[The Larch]

Managed to find a thread about Italian politics! I knew there was one somewhere. 

So, political news from Italy. M5S suffers its first proper split, after the long-standing rivalry between Conte and Di Maio came to a boil. Di Maio (former M5S leader and Italian deputy PM) announces he's leaving M5S and forming a new party named "Together for the future". He is to be joined by 35-50 MPs and 15 senators, which will make M5S cease to be the first force in the Italian parliament, status now inherited by the Lega. The whole thing is not expected to affect the current Draghi government, which will still retain a majority, but brings even more uncertainty to future elections.

[Sheilbh]

Nothing is more Italian politics than di Maio and Renzi probably ending up on the same pro-Draghi list/pact at the next election

Or, from Twitter:

The arc of Italian politics is long but it bends towards a dozen vaguely centrist parties on 1% each, led by egomaniacs.

I imagine as the rest of M5S radicalise to draw a distinction between themselves and di Maio's group, it might increase the pressure on Lega to pull out and benefit from being a little more opposition.

[Josquius]

Italy is truly a rival of the UK when it comes to squandering a position of advantage and turning it into one of barely keeping ones head above water.

[The Larch]

I imagine as the rest of M5S radicalise to draw a distinction between themselves and di Maio's group

The direction that the rump M5S might take from now on is quite worrying. Di Maio basically called Conte a Putin stooge, and apparently one of the triggers of the split was an attempt by some M5S senators to bring forward a motion for Italy to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine.

[Jacob]

Good for Di Maio to split in that case.

[The Larch]

Found an article in English on the topic:

Italy: foreign minister leaves 5-Star to form new group backing PM
Luigi Di Maio's move comes after he accused 5-Star leader Giuseppe Conte of undermining government support for Ukraine

Italy's foreign minister Luigi Di Maio has announced that he is leaving the 5-Star Movement to form a new parliamentary group backing the government of prime minister Mario Draghi.

Di Maio's move comes after he accused 5-Star leader and former prime minister Giuseppe Conte of undermining government efforts to support Ukraine and weakening Rome's standing within the EU.

The split in the 5-Star Movement threatens to bring fresh instability to Draghi's multiparty coalition.

5-Star has become increasingly uneasy about Italy sending weapons to Ukraine and there has been widespread speculation that Conte is considering pulling the movement out of the government in an effort to halt its slide in opinion polls.

The party issued a statement on Tuesday flatly denying this.

"Today's is a difficult decision I never imagined I would have to take ... but today I and lots of other colleagues and friends are leaving the 5-Star Movement," Di Maio, himself a former 5-Star leader, told a news conference.

Di Maio, who has been at odds with Conte for months, did not indicate how many 5-Star lawmakers he would take with him but he said that as a result of the schism the party would no longer be the largest group in parliament.

"From today we begin a new path with people who have decided to look to the future," he said, in an apparent hint about his new parliamentary group's name which according to political sources is likely to be Together for the Future.

If 5-Star does end up pulling out of the government it would not deprive Draghi of his majority, but the European Central Bank head would no longer head a "national unity" coalition as he agreed to do in February last year.

Even assuming Draghi decided to carry on, other parties could follow 5-Star out of the government, which would trigger its collapse.

The 5-Star Movement, which triumphed at the 2018 elections when it took 33% of the vote, is now polling at less than half that level, and is in total disarray before the next election scheduled for early next year.

Di Maio bitterly attacked his former party, calling it "irresponsible" over its position on the war in Ukraine and saying it had "put the government in difficulty just to gain a few points in the polls, without even succeeding".

[celedhring]

I'm currently in Italy and the headlines are all variations of "M5S nel caos" 

[The Larch]

I'm currently in Italy and the headlines are all variations of "M5S nel caos" 

Well, that's more or less  what always seemed to be the M5S' default state. 

[Sheilbh]

Although I wonder how much the Ukraine issue is just a pretext. From Italians I follow it seems like there's been an emerging split between a more "institutional" M5S and the old more chaotic one. Apparently the presidential election was basically a mess for them not being able to work together.

So I wonder if Ukraine just provided di Maio with a more sympathetic ground for doing this, because M5S have been backing weapons supplies - but will now radicalise.

[Sheilbh]

Italy is truly a rival of the UK when it comes to squandering a position of advantage and turning it into one of barely keeping ones head above water.

Duncan Weldon had flagged that comparison. In 1990 Italy was basically at the same level as Germany economically, by 2000 they'd fallen behind Germany but were still ahead of the UK, now they're approaching Spain/Malta/Cyprus levels. It's still very rich but relative decline - and like the UK now there was a big issue with productivity

[The Larch]

Although I wonder how much the Ukraine issue is just a pretext. From Italians I follow it seems like there's been an emerging split between a more "institutional" M5S and the old more chaotic one. Apparently the presidential election was basically a mess for them not being able to work together.

So I wonder if Ukraine just provided di Maio with a more sympathetic ground for doing this, because M5S have been backing weapons supplies - but will now radicalise.

That has been mentioned since the beginning, yeah, that the Ukraine thing is just a very convenient excuse for something that was going to happen sooner or later, given that the fracture was seen as eventually inevitable.

[The Larch]

Italy is truly a rival of the UK when it comes to squandering a position of advantage and turning it into one of barely keeping ones head above water.

Duncan Weldon had flagged that comparison. In 1990 Italy was basically at the same level as Germany economically, by 2000 they'd fallen behind Germany but were still ahead of the UK, now they're approaching Spain/Malta/Cyprus levels. It's still very rich but relative decline - and like the UK now there was a big issue with productivity

Slow, steady decline is part of Italian life since the fall of the Roman Empire. 

[The Larch]

Interesting graph. In which current parlamentary group are the 222 M5S MPs elected in the last general election?

[The Larch]

First show of M5S rebelling against the unity government. It has announced it will abstain from a senate vote on a cost of living related measures package, claiming that it does too little and, even if they are still in government, calls for new elections from the right (Salvini & Berlusconi from within the government, FdI from outside of it) are getting stronger.

Italy's government on the brink as 5-Star threatens to boycott confidence vote
Populist party says it won't back cost of living package and could withdraw from fragile coalition

The Italian government is close to collapse after the 5-Star Movement said it would boycott a crucial confidence vote in parliament, prompting calls for early elections.

Giuseppe Conte, the former prime minister who leads the populist party, said the funds set aside for a cost of living support package were insufficient and that his senators could not support the bill on Thursday.

"The scenario has changed, we need a different phase," he told reporters after failing to reach a compromise during talks with the incumbent prime minister Mario Draghi earlier on Wednesday.

"We are ready to support the government but not to sign a blank bill. Whoever accuses us of irresponsibility needs to look in their own backyard."

Conte has been threatening to pull the 5-Star Movement, which has lost half of its support since emerging as the biggest party in Italy in the 2018 general elections, from Draghi's broad coalition for weeks.

Draghi, the former European Central Bank chief who was brought in to lead Italy out of the coronavirus pandemic and salvage its economy, said on Tuesday that the government could not survive without the 5-Star Movement while stressing that he would not accept ultimatums.

"A government with ultimatums doesn't work, at that point it loses its reason for existing," he added.

Parliamentarians also need to vote on sending more support, including military aid, to Ukraine. The 5-Star Movement has long voiced its opposition to sending arms to the war-torn country.

There have been calls for early elections from coalition and opposition parties in the event of a government collapse.

Matteo Salvini, leader of the far-right League, said the "Italian people should have their say", while his far-right counterpart Giorgia Meloni, whose Brothers of Italy party was the only one to stay out of Draghi's coalition, called for immediate elections. Brothers of Italy currently leads in opinion polls.

Enrico Letta, leader of the centre-left Democratic party, said earlier on Wednesday: "If the government falls, we vote."

Italy's next general elections are due to be held next spring. It is unusual for a national vote to take place in the autumn.

The 5-Star Movement has struggled to revive its fortunes under Conte's leadership. The party has lost dozens of parliamentarians and its former leader Luigi Di Maio, the current foreign minister, split from the group last month, taking dozens more with him.

[The Larch]

And it seems now that Draghi will resign after M5S no-showed the vote in the Senate, arguing that he can't continue heading the government with the M5S's trust.

It remains to be seen if the President will accept his resignation or not, and what kind of formula will be hammered out to keep the government. New elections will be, I think, the last choice that everyone will want to avoid.