Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Valmy]

I have empathy with corona ruining lives.

Yeah there is a lot of fucked up shit going on with people and their lives and businesses. At some point I get that, due to the poor planning and reactionary way we approached this pandemic, we have no choice but to re-open. My concern is just that I sure hope it doesn't make the previous two months of sacrifices pointless.

[Zoupa]

Basically I'm in a phenomenally foul mood and hate just about everything. I set a bunch of goals for the year and they are all shot. It was completely arbitrary to shut down low risk outdoor activities, but I hope it made you guys feel better. I think the bulk of you fell for a media induced panic, and continue to do so. That is not to say that there is not a problem--a 1% fatality rate is serious, but it is not nearly 4%. If any single one of us dies this year, it probably won't be from coronavirus - but it could be!

Honestly, knowing that this has ruined your day makes it all better for me. Since you want to make this entirely about you, I'm happy to revel in the "hardship" this has put you in.

Yup, same here. What a whiny little bitch 

[celedhring]

Ok, the data on the Spanish survey is out. I'll post what I guess people might find more interesting.

Here, prevalence by age and gender. Also by employment status. I don't think there's anything that jumps out from the data, besides children having much lower prevalence (but this might be because of lack of exposure once schools were closed down, which happened before the total lockdown). Older people also got it more often, but it's not a staggering difference. Men and women have near the same prevalence.

Employed people were more susceptible than unemployed people or students. Retirees more susceptible (but that aligns with age). The weird thing is essential workers being less susceptible than non-essential ones.



The symptoms table isn't very useful since you have to do a bit of math, but I get 33% asymptomatic positives (in the press conference they said 26%, so maybe I'm doing something wrong, or I misheard them).

Of all the people that remembered experiencing loss of sense of smell 43% tested positive, which is by far the most prevalent symptom. I found this suprising.

[merithyn]

Lets not make shit up, I didn't say everyone was wrong but me. I said many were wrong, and called out three: Fate, Tim, and  you.

Lets just look at one of the posts you made. This clearly hasn't been reality. There haven't been nearly that many healthcare worker deaths.

Let's face it. The US has failed our people when we needed to step up most. I mean, fuck, at this rate, Fate and his colleagues are looking at 10% of them dying (averaging the Italian (9%) and Spanish (12%) healthcare worker deaths). And we still aren't testing at nearly the necessary rates nor are we producing nearly enough PPEs to improve our circumstances.

You all can bitch and scream and talk about how the US if "finally" stepping up, but the truth of the matter is that it's far too little and far too late. I don't appreciate cc's tone either, especially after his initial reaction to this virus, but he's not wrong. The US isn't going to lead anyone in anything but deaths when this is over.

I quoted the statistics of what was real numbers in Italy and Spain. We don't know what the numbers of deaths by healthcare workers are right now, as the last time the CDC broke that information out was April 15, a month ago.

And the US is 100% leading the world in number of deaths. That's irrefutable.

Additionally, we are maybe a third of the way through this... maybe. We legitimately have zero idea - you, me, Fate, the gods - how it's going to end. What we do know is that staying away from others prevents the spread of this disease. There are 1800 different opinions on what that actually looks like, and I don't know that any one person is 100% correct on it.

What I do know is that your attitude of "but I can't go climbing so this is all stupid, and those of you arguing that it's not are stupider yet!" is galling at best, and downright shitty at worst. I work in an industry that is literally counting the number of our membership who has died, been hospitalized, and will suffer long-term consequences from this virus that you poo-poo because you don't get to do what you want. There is a very good chance that over the next year, 1% of our population will have died from this virus, and that's not counting the vast number of people who will suffer life-long affects from what it's done to their bodies.

Know what? I'm missing out on my daughter's 21st birthday, my niece's college graduation, a three-week cruise in Europe, a one-week trek across Spain, a week in Alaska, and a whole lot of other things. It sucks, and I hate it, and I'm losing my goddamn mind staying in my apartment. But I also know that this isn't about me. This is a community effort to do what little we can to help everyone stay a little safer. It may be an over-reaction, and you may get to dance a jig next year talking about how fucking brilliant you are. None of that is going to change the fact that my job as a member of my community is to do what I can to mitigate whatever risks I can mitigate.

My issue isn't with your message - you might very well be right and I certainly hope you are - but with the way you share it. You're selfish and self-absorbed, and you've made a worldwide pandemic entirely about you. At the best of times, I can't stomach that attitude, but right now when literally everyone has lost something or someone to this virus, it's disgusting.

And this will be the last time I bother trying to explain myself to you. I'm not going to apologize again for caring that my elderly neighbor survives another year.

[Barrister]

And the US is 100% leading the world in number of deaths. That's irrefutable.

Ackshually...

US is leading the world in confirmed deaths.  I suspect that when we go back and look at records for "excess deaths from expected" we're going to see some shocking numbers from some developing countries.  Plus China is probably number 1 anyways but I wouldn't trust any numbers coming out of that country.

[Sheilbh]

Here, prevalence by age and gender. Also by employment status. I don't think there's anything that jumps out from the data, besides children having much lower prevalence (but this might be because of lack of exposure once schools were closed down, which happened before the total lockdown). Older people also got it more often, but it's not a staggering difference. Men and women have near the same prevalence.

Employed people were more susceptible than unemployed people or students. Retirees more susceptible (but that aligns with age). The weird thing is essential workers being less susceptible than non-essential ones.

Is this of having it or having it badly?

I ask because it's kind of interesting that women are just as likely to get it, just far less likely to get it badly or die from it.

Also I feel like a similar level or higher retirees is odd because of the messaging around vulnerable people needing to self-isolate. I suppose it just might not work, certainly here I got the impression the elders were pretty bloodyminded about not self-isolating

Of all the people that remembered experiencing loss of sense of smell 43% tested positive, which is by far the most prevalent symptom. I found this suprising.

Interesting. In the UK I'd wonder how much of that is psychological (can't think of the word - but caused by the mind) because here there was a lot about loss of sense of smell and taste on social media - may be less excitement about it before this in Spain though. On studies they've done of people with symptoms or covid-19 here (so not antibody) tests they said people had it, but the most common symptom was fever and more people who reported loss of senses were negative.

[merithyn]

And the US is 100% leading the world in number of deaths. That's irrefutable.

Ackshually...

US is leading the world in confirmed deaths.  I suspect that when we go back and look at records for "excess deaths from expected" we're going to see some shocking numbers from some developing countries.  Plus China is probably number 1 anyways but I wouldn't trust any numbers coming out of that country.

You don't think the US's numbers are maybe a little low for where we are? Because I do. Remember, we're under a President who refused to allow a cruise ship to dock so that the number of known COVID patients wouldn't go up and negatively affect his polling numbers.

[crazy canuck]

HIV is an exception because it is a retrovirus.  Our immune system doesn't recognize HIV as a threat and thus it generates no immune response.  For that reason a vaccine was always going to be incredibly difficult if not impossible.

For most other diseases, the problem is one of resources.  Making vaccines is difficult and can be very costly and timely.  And unfortunately they're not particularly lucrative for pharmacy companies, since it's a medicine you only ever take once or twice in your life.  Then you throw in the anti-vax movement of the last 20 years vaccine research hasn't been a big priority.  Which is why people like Gates and his foundation are so valuable - he's stepping in to areas that are vitally important but largely being ignored.

I know that is the mantra you want to stick to.  But the claim that vaccines are just a matter of funding is not consistent with reality.  You can try to distinguish HIV all you want, but if it was true that vaccines were simply a function of funding then HIV would have a vaccine.  It has been a major area of both interest and funding.

The fact that you are not aware of other projects doesn't exactly strengthen your claim.

But HIV is not comparable. creating a vaccine for a virus that doesn't trigger an immune response is not the same task.

Also, there are several treatments for HIV now, because of all the resources poured into it. It's no longer a death sentence

It is not comparable to what?  The claim being made was related to funding and attention.  HIV is the poster child for that.

Treatments are not a vaccine.  There is some chance that we will have treatments for COVID 19 before we have a vaccine - assuming one is possible.

[crazy canuck]

And the US is 100% leading the world in number of deaths. That's irrefutable.

Ackshually...

US is leading the world in confirmed deaths.  I suspect that when we go back and look at records for "excess deaths from expected" we're going to see some shocking numbers from some developing countries.  Plus China is probably number 1 anyways but I wouldn't trust any numbers coming out of that country.

Same with the US.

[Admiral Yi]

Grocery run.  They finally had toilet paper. 

I'd say about 70% of customers walking in were masked.  Skewed younger and whiter.

[Barrister]

And the US is 100% leading the world in number of deaths. That's irrefutable.

Ackshually...

US is leading the world in confirmed deaths.  I suspect that when we go back and look at records for "excess deaths from expected" we're going to see some shocking numbers from some developing countries.  Plus China is probably number 1 anyways but I wouldn't trust any numbers coming out of that country.

You don't think the US's numbers are maybe a little low for where we are? Because I do. Remember, we're under a President who refused to allow a cruise ship to dock so that the number of known COVID patients wouldn't go up and negatively affect his polling numbers.

Yes - I think the US numbers will be higher as well.  I mean they already are in places like NYC.

[Barrister]

Grocery run.  They finally had toilet paper. 

I'd say about 70% of customers walking in were masked.  Skewed younger and whiter.

Really.  We too had a run on toilet paper when this started, but store shelves have been completely full for weeks.

Hand sanitizer and masks of course are still like gold, but you can find them now and then.

[celedhring]

Is this of having it or having it badly?

I ask because it's kind of interesting that women are just as likely to get it, just far less likely to get it badly or die from it.

Having. Actually very few of people in the survey were diagnosed and treated of Covid - 0.4% vs 5% of antibody positives. So the vast majority is mild cases. 33% without symptoms at all.

Also I feel like a similar level or higher retirees is odd because of the messaging around vulnerable people needing to self-isolate. I suppose it just might not work, certainly here I got the impression the elders were pretty bloodyminded about not self-isolating

Might be the care home issue, but people in care homes aren't that significant a cohort in Spain (only 5% of the elderly).

In the UK I'd wonder how much of that is psychological (can't think of the word - but caused by the mind) because here there was a lot about loss of sense of smell and taste on social media - may be less excitement about it before this in Spain though. On studies they've done of people with symptoms or covid-19 here (so not antibody) tests they said people had it, but the most common symptom was fever and more people who reported loss of senses were negative.

The other symptoms are compatible with common cold or flu so I'm not surprised they produced a lot of negatives when tested. Loss of sense of smell seems more specific - the only guy I know that was diagnosed with Covid was surprised when it happened to him.  Our health authorities seem convinced to flag it as a key indicator for potential covid cases.

[alfred russel]

Lets not make shit up, I didn't say everyone was wrong but me. I said many were wrong, and called out three: Fate, Tim, and  you.

Lets just look at one of the posts you made. This clearly hasn't been reality. There haven't been nearly that many healthcare worker deaths.

Let's face it. The US has failed our people when we needed to step up most. I mean, fuck, at this rate, Fate and his colleagues are looking at 10% of them dying (averaging the Italian (9%) and Spanish (12%) healthcare worker deaths). And we still aren't testing at nearly the necessary rates nor are we producing nearly enough PPEs to improve our circumstances.

You all can bitch and scream and talk about how the US if "finally" stepping up, but the truth of the matter is that it's far too little and far too late. I don't appreciate cc's tone either, especially after his initial reaction to this virus, but he's not wrong. The US isn't going to lead anyone in anything but deaths when this is over.

I quoted the statistics of what was real numbers in Italy and Spain. We don't know what the numbers of deaths by healthcare workers are right now, as the last time the CDC broke that information out was April 15, a month ago.

And the US is 100% leading the world in number of deaths. That's irrefutable.

Additionally, we are maybe a third of the way through this... maybe. We legitimately have zero idea - you, me, Fate, the gods - how it's going to end. What we do know is that staying away from others prevents the spread of this disease. There are 1800 different opinions on what that actually looks like, and I don't know that any one person is 100% correct on it.

What I do know is that your attitude of "but I can't go climbing so this is all stupid, and those of you arguing that it's not are stupider yet!" is galling at best, and downright shitty at worst. I work in an industry that is literally counting the number of our membership who has died, been hospitalized, and will suffer long-term consequences from this virus that you poo-poo because you don't get to do what you want. There is a very good chance that over the next year, 1% of our population will have died from this virus, and that's not counting the vast number of people who will suffer life-long affects from what it's done to their bodies.

Know what? I'm missing out on my daughter's 21st birthday, my niece's college graduation, a three-week cruise in Europe, a one-week trek across Spain, a week in Alaska, and a whole lot of other things. It sucks, and I hate it, and I'm losing my goddamn mind staying in my apartment. But I also know that this isn't about me. This is a community effort to do what little we can to help everyone stay a little safer. It may be an over-reaction, and you may get to dance a jig next year talking about how fucking brilliant you are. None of that is going to change the fact that my job as a member of my community is to do what I can to mitigate whatever risks I can mitigate.

My issue isn't with your message - you might very well be right and I certainly hope you are - but with the way you share it. You're selfish and self-absorbed, and you've made a worldwide pandemic entirely about you. At the best of times, I can't stomach that attitude, but right now when literally everyone has lost something or someone to this virus, it's disgusting.

And this will be the last time I bother trying to explain myself to you. I'm not going to apologize again for caring that my elderly neighbor survives another year.

Come on Meri. There are 950,000 physicians in the US. 3.8 million nurses. Lots of others are in healthcare besides doctors and nurses of course...

Total deaths with Covid19 / Covid19 & Pneumonia identified by the CDC are 79,008. Of these, only 15,645 are in ages 15-64. Even if every single person aged 15-64 that has died was a healthcare worker, we still aren't up to 1/3 of 1% of doctors and nurses.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex

[merithyn]

Come on Meri. There are 950,000 physicians in the US. 3.8 million nurses. Lots of others are in healthcare besides doctors and nurses of course...

Total deaths with Covid19 / Covid19 & Pneumonia identified by the CDC are 79,008. Of these, only 15,645 are in ages 15-64. Even if every single person aged 15-64 that has died was a healthcare worker, we still aren't up to 1/3 of 1% of doctors and nurses.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex

I know math is hard, but the numbers that I quoted were that 9% and 12% of those who died in Italy and Spain respectively were healthcare workers. Not that 9% and 12% of healthcare workers died.

Don't hurt yourself with the abacus.