Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[DGuller]

What I find more inexcusable is the lack of plan for how to handle return to normal without causing the second wave.  I can understand that lock down is not sustainable; it's like a tourniquet on an injured limb.  You can't have it on for too long, or the limb will die.  However, the point of putting a tourniquet on is to buy time to fix the critical situation and prepare for the recovery.  Returning to normal without a mandate for everyone to wear masks, and being ready to enforce it, is just homicidal.

[Tamas]

The one thing those European countries have in common is that cases and deaths are on a very clear downward trend - in the US, from what I've seen, they're still plateauing.

We shouldn't bother with Dorsey he has made his mind up a month ago and has been looking for justifications since.


But that's also why people shouldn't yet get uppity in the UK: we went into lockdown weeks after Spain and the rest, it would stand to reason we would not be coming out of it at the same time as they do.

[Sheilbh]

But that's also why people shouldn't yet get uppity in the UK: we went into lockdown weeks after Spain and the rest, it would stand to reason we would not be coming out of it at the same time as they do.

I don't think anyone is, yet. But I do find it weird how much the press and Labour want a detailed un-lockdown plan. I think the government's position that they'll start to set it out ahead of lockdown (possibly this week) but it's probably premature to fully detail it. Espsecially as we can learn from the rest of Europe on what works and what doesn't.

The other point is what's really important is what are the measures in place to not just keep R below 1 but to spot and contain any local outbreaks. I think every country has had at least one example of a hyper-local outbreak causing a lot of cases and deaths. That's why I think the really important thing I want to see in place before we start coming out of this is a strategy - either track-and-trace (South Korea - which we're going for), or voluntary ongoing social distancing plus capacity (Sweden - which we're not). That means the testing needs to be in place, and it now looks like it has enough capacity even if they fudged the 100,000 number we're at about 75-80k a day. But the other piece is the contact tracing either by the new PHE staff or the NHSX app.

[alfred russel]

Possibly not even plateauing.

The unfortunate thing with tracking the number of cases is that the number of cases is such an artifact of the amount of testing. It is generally understood that probably most cases are not being identified, and testing regimes are (theoretically) ramping up.

For example, the US is roughly tracking with Belgium in that graph for number of cases per capita. But Belgium has over 3 times the deaths per capita. So either the US is doing a better job identifying cases or something else odd is going on.

[Legbiter]

But the other piece is the contact tracing either by the new PHE staff or the NHSX app.

If done correctly it's a very potent weapon in the arsenal. Probably the single most effective measure we've taken here aside from bubblewrapping the elderly the best we can. Here we used police detectives and medical student volunteers deployed in teams of contact tracers. Of course much harder to scale up to size in bigger countries, especially since you're building the capacity from scratch. But it works well.

[garbon]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/04/cost-of-public-transport-should-be-raised-as-lockdown-ends-ifs

Cost of public transport should be raised as lockdown ends – IFS

The price of a bus, train or tube ticket during peak commuting hours could be raised to prevent crowding and the spread of coronavirus on public transport, according to a leading thinktank.

Setting out a menu of options to end the government lockdown as ministers consider ways to reopen the British economy, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said discouraging public transport use during peak times could limit overcrowding and reduce the risks to public health.

In a report detailing the policy tools that could be used to reshape business and social activity across Britain as restrictions are gradually lifted, the thinktank said behavioural changes needed to be encouraged to tackle the continued risks from Covid-19.

Among its recommendations the IFS said the usual logic of promoting public transport use – to cut congestion and pollution – could be reversed in order to limit the spread of the virus on packed commuter trains and buses, especially in London.

"The government could alter the relative prices of different types of commutes to better reflect this new reality. Examples would be to increase the relative price of commuting at peak times on the London tube and bus network, or to suspend the London congestion charge for drivers," it said in the report.

However, raising the price of public transport would come at a cost for people who cannot change their working hours or commute by car. The IFS said that while off-peak prices could be cut as an alternative, it would incentivise public transport at a time when commuting should be limited.

Yeah raising prices on commuters would really help in an economic downturn.

[fromtia]

my employer is opening back up on the 8th and we will be open Tuesday to Saturday at 25% seating capacity, guests somehow kept 6 feet apart. A limited schedule for my colleagues and I, but no other details on how we intend to operate. To the petri dish of freedom I go!

[DGuller]

Possibly not even plateauing.

The unfortunate thing with tracking the number of cases is that the number of cases is such an artifact of the amount of testing. It is generally understood that probably most cases are not being identified, and testing regimes are (theoretically) ramping up.

For example, the US is roughly tracking with Belgium in that graph for number of cases per capita. But Belgium has over 3 times the deaths per capita. So either the US is doing a better job identifying cases or something else odd is going on.

The curves may not be comparable between each other, but the trends are generally reliable.  Countries don't switch from testing everyone to testing the corpses and back to testing everyone from day to day.

[alfred russel]

The curves may not be comparable between each other, but the trends are generally reliable.  Countries don't switch from testing everyone to testing the corpses and back to testing everyone from day to day.

Are you sure? If a country doubles its testing capacity over a two week period, it seems plausible that identified cases will increase significantly even if the actual infection rates in the population are steady.

Theoretically, almost every country is ramping up testing right now.

[Tamas]

But that's also why people shouldn't yet get uppity in the UK: we went into lockdown weeks after Spain and the rest, it would stand to reason we would not be coming out of it at the same time as they do.

I don't think anyone is, yet. But I do find it weird how much the press and Labour want a detailed un-lockdown plan. I think the government's position that they'll start to set it out ahead of lockdown (possibly this week) but it's probably premature to fully detail it. Espsecially as we can learn from the rest of Europe on what works and what doesn't.
.

Yeah, the one advantage of the late start would be to check how Europe will fare with their different easing methods, would be a painful waste to lock down too late AND open up too early.

[Sheilbh]

The unfortunate thing with tracking the number of cases is that the number of cases is such an artifact of the amount of testing. It is generally understood that probably most cases are not being identified, and testing regimes are (theoretically) ramping up.

For example, the US is roughly tracking with Belgium in that graph for number of cases per capita. But Belgium has over 3 times the deaths per capita. So either the US is doing a better job identifying cases or something else odd is going on.

Part of this may be how data is collected (this is the point that makes international comparisons very tough right now). Belgium includes "suspected coronavirus" in their numbers which are regularly released, similarly the UK includes all deaths which refer to "coronavirus" on the death certificate regardless of testing of those individuals - unlike Belgium this is the data that gets released every week with a lag because it takes longer for us to collect. I'm not sure how the data's collected and released in the US.

So that could be part of it? Last I read Belgium had more "suspected coronavirus" deaths than confirmed coronavirus deaths. I imagine the UK will probably end up in a similar position by the end of this.

[celedhring]

Spain gives confirmed deaths, some regions also release "suspected coronavirus" deaths individually (including both Madrid and Catalonia, the two most affected areas), but there's no total national number.

[DGuller]

The curves may not be comparable between each other, but the trends are generally reliable.  Countries don't switch from testing everyone to testing the corpses and back to testing everyone from day to day.

Are you sure? If a country doubles its testing capacity over a two week period, it seems plausible that identified cases will increase significantly even if the actual infection rates in the population are steady.

Theoretically, almost every country is ramping up testing right now.

Yes, I guess it's possible that curves will appear to fall off less dramatically they they do, because ramp up in testing will probably coincide with infection rate being brought under some measure of control.  Hospitalization rate would be a better measure, although it may also mutate over time as it seems like the trend is towards more conservative treatment at home in borderline cases.

[celedhring]

Our opposition is also embracing the stupid and won't vote for extending the emergency, which would result in all movement restrictions be completely lifted next Monday 

I think that at the end they just will abstain, separatists and the far right will vote against it, and the extension will pass with just the votes of the parties in the minority government. But man, I wish I could slap every single member of our political establishment (the government not excepted, they get an extra-hard slap).

[Sheilbh]

The job retention scheme - government paying 80% of the wages of furloughed employees - is now estimated to be paying the wage of 6.3 million people. That is more people than are employed in the entire public sector, which is a huge sign of just how big the impact is