Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[DGuller]

What's so eye-popping about the 10% statistic?  CDC reports 33 million infections in the US, so that would be the figure.  I wonder what the long-term toll of this will be, if even a small percent were left with permanent neurological deficits due to the virus essentially causing a bunch of nano-strokes. 

[Valmy]

Problem: A highly contagious and deadly respiratory disease is spreading in your community: how do you prevent groups from meeting in indoor spaces, where it most easily spreads?

Solution: Close the vast majority of outdoor park space in the country, except for a small fraction in highly populated urban areas.

Tamas, I may be an abrasive asshole, but you've got to see the initial approach was pretty fucking stupid.

Some of the measures made sense, others were total nonsense. As I have said before in the future I hope we will use this experience to be better prepared for the next one, though hopefully there will never be a next one.

[Iormlund]

Problem: A highly contagious and deadly respiratory disease is spreading in your community: how do you prevent groups from meeting in indoor spaces, where it most easily spreads?

Solution: Close the vast majority of outdoor park space in the country, except for a small fraction in highly populated urban areas.

Tamas, I may be an abrasive asshole, but you've got to see the initial approach was pretty fucking stupid.

Some of the measures made sense, others were total nonsense. As I have said before in the future I hope we will use this experience to be better prepared for the next one, though hopefully there will never be a next one.

We've come into contact with three dangerous coronaviruses in the last few years. And those are just one kind of potential pathogens. I'd be pleasantly surprised if there's not a next time.

[Barrister]

Problem: A highly contagious and deadly respiratory disease is spreading in your community: how do you prevent groups from meeting in indoor spaces, where it most easily spreads?

Solution: Close the vast majority of outdoor park space in the country, except for a small fraction in highly populated urban areas.

Tamas, I may be an abrasive asshole, but you've got to see the initial approach was pretty fucking stupid.

Some of the measures made sense, others were total nonsense. As I have said before in the future I hope we will use this experience to be better prepared for the next one, though hopefully there will never be a next one.

We've come into contact with three dangerous coronaviruses in the last few years. And those are just one kind of potential pathogens. I'd be pleasantly surprised if there's not a next time.

My fear is that we're going to be 100% ready for the next dangerous coronavirus that we're going to totally drop the ball when some Ebola (or whatever) variant starts spreading wildly.

[alfred russel]

The initial approach was not perfect IN HINDSIGHT. Transmission data evolved over time. A little thing called the scientific method.

Wrong. I'm confident that I posted this journal article last year. This is one of the very earliest studies in how the virus was spreading among humans in China.

Among the identified outbreaks, 53.8% involved three cases, 26.4% involved four cases, and only 1.6% involved ten or more cases. Home-based outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport-based outbreaks (108; 34.0%), and many outbreaks occurred in more than one category of venue. All identified outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in indoor environments, which confirm that sharing indoor spaces with one or more infected persons is a major SARS-CoV-2 infection risk.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33131151/

Bolded and increased in size for the reader's benefit.

The data set ended February 11. This was in pre publication here on May 4, 2020, not sure if it was out earlier.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1.full-text

[Valmy]

I mean yeah Dorsey, all the experience and information from other countries might have been there.

But sometimes you just need to make the same mistakes yourself in order to learn.

[alfred russel]

The fact that you frequented indoor gyms in May of 2020 is incredibly stupid. People exert themselves in gyms, breathing faster and deeper. I wouldn't use that fact when arguing how smart and always right you are regarding COVID-19 measures.

In your opinion! The great thing about living in a free society is that everyone can make their own risk assessments. I assumed it was likely that I'd get covid by going to the gym, but I thought it was worth the risk. And you know what? By wearing masks, avoiding indoor spaces like restaurants that I don't really care about visiting, I also avoided covid!

[Zoupa]

You guys should change your motto as E pluribus unum is not relevant anymore.

Looking out for number one! would be more appropriate. Or as the great Kevin Sorbo recently put it on twitter:

"I don't know you, my lunch is more important to me than you are."

Perfetto!

[alfred russel]

You guys should change your motto as E pluribus unum is not relevant anymore.

Looking out for number one! would be more appropriate. Or as the great Kevin Sorbo recently put it on twitter:

"I don't know you, my lunch is more important to me than you are."

Perfetto!

How I put the community at risk by going to the gym and doing outdoor stuff with my fiance/wife kind of escapes me.

And for what it is worth I did avoid getting covid. Unlike say Berkut, who argued with me about whether team college sports should be played last fall (I said they should despite my opinion that covid spread would be significant--my opinion was the demographic group was low risk enough it was okay), and then Berkut got covid participating in team sports in the spring.

[Zoupa]

You guys should change your motto as E pluribus unum is not relevant anymore.

Looking out for number one! would be more appropriate. Or as the great Kevin Sorbo recently put it on twitter:

"I don't know you, my lunch is more important to me than you are."

Perfetto!

How I put the community at risk by going to the gym and doing outdoor stuff with my fiance/wife kind of escapes me.

Well that's a lie.

[Barrister]

I'm just excited that 8 months after my last game, my beer league hockey team has a game to play this weekend.

As of today all restrictions on team sports lifted.

[viper37]

The initial approach was not perfect IN HINDSIGHT. Transmission data evolved over time. A little thing called the scientific method.

Wrong. I'm confident that I posted this journal article last year. This is one of the very earliest studies in how the virus was spreading among humans in China.

Among the identified outbreaks, 53.8% involved three cases, 26.4% involved four cases, and only 1.6% involved ten or more cases. Home-based outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport-based outbreaks (108; 34.0%), and many outbreaks occurred in more than one category of venue. All identified outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in indoor environments, which confirm that sharing indoor spaces with one or more infected persons is a major SARS-CoV-2 infection risk.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33131151/

Bolded and increased in size for the reader's benefit.

The data set ended February 11. This was in pre publication here on May 4, 2020, not sure if it was out earlier.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1.full-text

First published: 31 October 2020

Data set ends in February does not mean that on March 1st all researchers were on this data parsing it, analyzing it and had a report published by March 2nd.  This isn't Star Trek or some other sci-fi were a deadly plague within 1hr.

So, Zoupa (and others) point stands: IN HINDSIGHT, MISTAKES WERE COMMITTED.

I seriously doubt that a complete lockdown could have been avoided though.  Just look at Ontario's 3rd wave, they had to close outdoor spaces too at some point to preven people from traveling from area to area.

[viper37]

The fact that you frequented indoor gyms in May of 2020 is incredibly stupid. People exert themselves in gyms, breathing faster and deeper. I wouldn't use that fact when arguing how smart and always right you are regarding COVID-19 measures.

In your opinion! The great thing about living in a free society is that everyone can make their own risk assessments. I assumed it was likely that I'd get covid by going to the gym, but I thought it was worth the risk. And you know what? By wearing masks, avoiding indoor spaces like restaurants that I don't really care about visiting, I also avoided covid!

Some people couldn't avoid indoor spaces entirely.  Lots of frontline workers caught covid from careless clients.  Lots of doctors&nurses in pro-covid States were exhausted and tired of all the GOP bullshit.

Sometimes, it ain't just about you.

[alfred russel]

First published: 31 October 2020

Data set ends in February does not mean that on March 1st all researchers were on this data parsing it, analyzing it and had a report published by March 2nd.  This isn't Star Trek or some other sci-fi were a deadly plague within 1hr.

So, Zoupa (and others) point stands: IN HINDSIGHT, MISTAKES WERE COMMITTED.

I seriously doubt that a complete lockdown could have been avoided though.  Just look at Ontario's 3rd wave, they had to close outdoor spaces too at some point to preven people from traveling from area to area.

Nope: final publication through peer review was October 31, 2020.

Look at the second link: prepublication on that site was May 4, 2020. Could have been earlier elsewhere: not sure.

The data was available to the scientific community by early May 2020 at the absolute latest.

[alfred russel]

The fact that you frequented indoor gyms in May of 2020 is incredibly stupid. People exert themselves in gyms, breathing faster and deeper. I wouldn't use that fact when arguing how smart and always right you are regarding COVID-19 measures.

In your opinion! The great thing about living in a free society is that everyone can make their own risk assessments. I assumed it was likely that I'd get covid by going to the gym, but I thought it was worth the risk. And you know what? By wearing masks, avoiding indoor spaces like restaurants that I don't really care about visiting, I also avoided covid!

Some people couldn't avoid indoor spaces entirely.  Lots of frontline workers caught covid from careless clients.  Lots of doctors&nurses in pro-covid States were exhausted and tired of all the GOP bullshit.

Sometimes, it ain't just about you.

Viper, please explain to me why:

-I'm a selfish prick for going to the gym/not getting covid,
-Berkut is not a selfish prick for participating as an official in team sports/getting covid