Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Zoupa]

I think you found a real gem there. Birds of a feather and all that.

[celedhring]

Me and my wife nursed my son when he had the swine flu a few years back, with no extreme care we avoided getting the virus off him.

A friend of mine shares apartment with 3 others, one of them got Covid but didn't pass it to any of them. Then again I know a couple families (parents+children living together) that ended up all of them having it.

As Iormlund says, there's lots that we still don't know.

[Josquius]

Girlfriends dad is getting the vaccine next week. He's near the top of the Swiss list due to a health condition. Her mam will be in 2 weeks time as someone living with someone with a health condition.
All fingers crossed that as vaccination rates go up the talked about vaccination passports go through soon and they get to visit the UK.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The Guardian is reporting on a health data firm that reckons that 20% of the UK population has already had the virus :

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2021/jan/10/one-in-five-have-had-coronavirus-in-england-new-modelling-says

That would certainly fit with the number of deaths and a fatality rate of just under 1%.

They also report that in certain areas of London as many as 50% of the population have had the virus. Checking those places on the rolling cases map reveals that the virus is still running rampant in those areas. It seems to me that unless the rate falls quite rapidly in those places over the next few weeks we may face a grim reality; namely that having had the virus once is little protection from having it again.

[Legbiter]

Spent a week in quarantine just before Christmas with my 7 year old because of an infected teacher at his school. Right now our third wave is all but extinct but it's just incredible to see flight after flight land here where over 10% of the passengers are already infected. But next Wednesday we're reopening all secondary schools and gyms will be allowed to reopen, albeit with strict measures. We've managed to vaccinate a good chunk of the very elderly and frontline staff and the vaccines are beginning to come online but in dribs and drabs until March by the looks of it. Then we'll get a big batch from Pzifer.

[Legbiter]

The Guardian is reporting on a health data firm that reckons that 20% of the UK population has already had the virus :

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2021/jan/10/one-in-five-have-had-coronavirus-in-england-new-modelling-says

That would certainly fit with the number of deaths and a fatality rate of just under 1%.

They also report that in certain areas of London as many as 50% of the population have had the virus. Checking those places on the rolling cases map reveals that the virus is still running rampant in those areas. It seems to me that unless the rate falls quite rapidly in those places over the next few weeks we may face a grim reality; namely that having had the virus once is little protection from having it again.

In hindsight the only thing that could have effectively stopped a virus like this while preserving a somewhat normal functioning of society are strict border controls with mandatory quarantine for all incoming travelers. It's a pity it was never really attempted by any large European nation.

[celedhring]

They also report that in certain areas of London as many as 50% of the population have had the virus. Checking those places on the rolling cases map reveals that the virus is still running rampant in those areas. It seems to me that unless the rate falls quite rapidly in those places over the next few weeks we may face a grim reality; namely that having had the virus once is little protection from having it again.

I believe that if that was the case, after nearly a year and 100 million registered cases, we'd know by now. The number of confirmed re-infected people so far is anecdotical.

What I don't know is whether the new variant is different enough to undercut immunity. But I'd assume (again, I'm an ignorant in these matters) that if it's not expected to change the effectiveness of vaccines, it won't change "natural" immunity either.

[Legbiter]

What I don't know is whether the new variant is different enough to undercut immunity. But I'd assume (again, I'm an ignorant in these matters) that if it's not expected to change the effectiveness of vaccines, it won't change "natural" immunity either.

These new super covid strains might mean we'd need to vaccinate 80% of the nation to get effective herd immunity instead of 60-70%. 

[Josquius]

The Guardian is reporting on a health data firm that reckons that 20% of the UK population has already had the virus :

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2021/jan/10/one-in-five-have-had-coronavirus-in-england-new-modelling-says

That would certainly fit with the number of deaths and a fatality rate of just under 1%.

They also report that in certain areas of London as many as 50% of the population have had the virus. Checking those places on the rolling cases map reveals that the virus is still running rampant in those areas. It seems to me that unless the rate falls quite rapidly in those places over the next few weeks we may face a grim reality; namely that having had the virus once is little protection from having it again.

Isn't it fairly accepted already that you can catch it again?
IIRC its something like you have a short term immunity but it vanishes fast.
I wonder how the vaccine compares; for how many years will we need annual mass booster campaigns?

Pretty sure I had it around this time last year.

[Richard Hakluyt]

They also report that in certain areas of London as many as 50% of the population have had the virus. Checking those places on the rolling cases map reveals that the virus is still running rampant in those areas. It seems to me that unless the rate falls quite rapidly in those places over the next few weeks we may face a grim reality; namely that having had the virus once is little protection from having it again.

I believe that if that was the case, after nearly a year and 100 million registered cases, we'd know by now. The number of confirmed re-infected people so far is anecdotical.

What I don't know is whether the new variant is different enough to undercut immunity. But I'd assume (again, I'm an ignorant in these matters) that if it's not expected to change the effectiveness of vaccines, it won't change "natural" immunity either.

I don't claim to know either, I'm just pointing out some troubling data and speculating 

There are so many unknowns and even the brainiest of the epidemiologists are somewhat at sea right now.

[Eddie Teach]

Pretty sure I had it around this time last year.

Very unlikely.

[mongers]

Spent a week in quarantine just before Christmas with my 7 year old because of an infected teacher at his school. Right now our third wave is all but extinct but it's just incredible to see flight after flight land here where over 10% of the passengers are already infected. But next Wednesday we're reopening all secondary schools and gyms will be allowed to reopen, albeit with strict measures. We've managed to vaccinate a good chunk of the very elderly and frontline staff and the vaccines are beginning to come online but in dribs and drabs until March by the looks of it. Then we'll get a big batch from Pzifer.

Leggy, good to hear form you and that it all worked out OK.

As you say in you next post, maybe some European countries should have tried real strict border controls, but perhaps that's only feasible on an island?   

[Sheilbh]

2.4 million doses used in vaccinations (2 million people vaccinated - 400k were second doses) and as of today there'll be daily updates, but the target is 2 million a week so we should be looking to see around 250-300k per day from now on. It feels like the pace is good though as the last update was 1.5 million doses on Thursday.

Hopefully this will mean care home residents and workers, plus the over 80s will all have their first dose by the end of the month. But we need more detailed information to know, especially about who's actually had it, the regional breakdown etc.

[Sheilbh]

Also - which is why I think this new variant is like when we first saw the reports coming from China, except we know what to expect and have a vaccine - the stats in Ireland are still really bad. It's now the world's worst outbreak, highest rate of growth in new cases anywhere in the world:


Ireland relaxed a lot for Christmas. They don't do much sequencing, but based on random sample sequencing the proportion of new cases that are this new variant over the last four weeks goes:
9%
13%
25%
45%

Chances are it'll be the dominant variant there by the end of the month, plus Denmark by mid-February, plus the UK obviously.

[Legbiter]

As you say in you next post, maybe some European countries should have tried real strict border controls, but perhaps that's only feasible on an island?   

Yeah, maybe but seeing how well it works where it's being done and early on it feels defeatist, "the bomber will always get through". Instead many of these countries are at most asking for covid certificates of dubious provenance and are facing crushing curfews and lockdowns while the virus rages on anyway.