Trump's True Politics

[Eddie Teach]

If the population decreases, it doesn't need economic growth.

[Oexmelin]

Either wage earners voting Trump are fools or they are supporting him for reasons other than the pocketbook.

It's without a doubt a bit of both - his economic policy, such as it is, is aimed almost entirely at evoking lost grandeur. Whether or not it works, is entirely different from the reasons why people would subscribe to the message. And because it's more about lost grandeur - or the sense of autonomy and social belonging that has been intertwined, in discourse at least, with economic growth - what he needs are mostly empty signs: unemployment rates, growth percentages, the opening of manufactures, etc.

[Razgovory]

If the population decreases, it doesn't need economic growth.

Uh, why not?

[The Minsky Moment]

It's without a doubt a bit of both - his economic policy, such as it is, is aimed almost entirely at evoking lost grandeur.

I don't think that's really true; it's far more crass than that.  It's aimed at rentiers who earn various forms of passive returns on capital.  I.e. people like him.

[Oexmelin]

I don't think that's really true; it's far more crass than that.  It's aimed at rentiers who earn various forms of passive returns on capital.  I.e. people like him.

Sorry, I expressed myself poorly: his economic *message*, not policy.

[crazy canuck]

If the population decreases, it doesn't need economic growth.

Uh, why not?

If the economy contracts enough no immigrant will want to come to the US?  Or some similar Trumpian nonsense.

[Habbaku]

Another interpretation is that if the economy stays the same size, but the population is contracting, then everyone is getting richer.

[crazy canuck]

Another interpretation is that if the economy stays the same size, but the population is contracting, then everyone is getting richer.

Sure, but for that to occur productivity would have to increase to make up for the drop in population.  Not impossible but a big gamble for the sake of keeping brown people out.  Given the number of foreign students in US STEM university programs I am not sure banning entry to immigrants would assist with increasing productivity.

[Oexmelin]

Another interpretation is that if the economy stays the same size, but the population is contracting, then everyone is getting richer.

Considering the way wealth has been redistributed in recent times of economic growth, I remain highly doubtful that this is a likely scenario.

[Ancient Demon]

In any case I have made it pretty clear that my opinion is that the current immigration laws fail because they are completely and hopelessly out of touch with the economic realities of labor needs. Our economy is dependent on these people, ergo why enforcement will usually fail.

My understanding was that illegals use far more in public benefits than they pay in taxes. That this burden largely doesn't fall on their employers doesn't change that this is a burden.

[Zoupa]

In any case I have made it pretty clear that my opinion is that the current immigration laws fail because they are completely and hopelessly out of touch with the economic realities of labor needs. Our economy is dependent on these people, ergo why enforcement will usually fail.

My understanding was that illegals use far more in public benefits than they pay in taxes. That this burden largely doesn't fall on their employers doesn't change that this is a burden.

No, it's not the system that's wrong. It's the truly powerless folks' fault!

[PDH]

Here in California, undocumented workers pay taxes.  They also pay to get a driver's license, etc.  Since they are such an important part of the state's economy, and recent trends has moved to better pay for agricultural workers, California makes sure they pay their share.  Seems to work.

[Razgovory]

Another interpretation is that if the economy stays the same size, but the population is contracting, then everyone is getting richer.

Well, that did happen in Europe in the 14th century.  Though there economy was based on land ownership.  There was also a labor shortage and lower classes tried to use that to their advantage.  They were slaughter as a result.  We have a labor shortage now, but that hasn't really helped wages much.

[Ancient Demon]

Here in California, undocumented workers pay taxes.  They also pay to get a driver's license, etc.  Since they are such an important part of the state's economy, and recent trends has moved to better pay for agricultural workers, California makes sure they pay their share.  Seems to work.

If this was in response to me, I know all that. They're still a significant net burden, especially the large and growing proportion of them who don't work.

[The Minsky Moment]

Another interpretation is that if the economy stays the same size, but the population is contracting, then everyone is getting richer.

Most modern economies - including the US - have pay-as-you go pension systems.  That ends up badly if population keeps contracting and new workers aren't replacing old ones.

Another side effect of declining population is that businesses come to expect declining demand over time and so will invest less.  Business are run for cash and not to invest and expand. That leads to a stagnation equilibrium.

The US economy in particular has been organized for about a century and half on the premise of steadily increasing labor force and investment over time. Can't just turn that on a dime and expect no pain.