Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Admiral Yi]

The other question is the quality of this remaining strength - is it more or less the same as what we've seen?  Is it better (the theory that Putin's been holding back "the real army" has been suggested by some folks, though I'm not sure I buy it), or is it worse because Putin led with his best troops?

The airborne are supposed to be some of their best troops and they've been committed.  Some of the currently active units have the Guards designation, which used to mean something in terms of quality.

[PDH]

Russia does keep a division or two near Moscow - these have always been described as close to fully staffed and with all their equipment.  Those aren't going to be used as reserves because they will need to drive into Moscow and shoot up parliament if needed.

[Zoupa]

The other question is the quality of this remaining strength - is it more or less the same as what we've seen?  Is it better (the theory that Putin's been holding back "the real army" has been suggested by some folks, though I'm not sure I buy it), or is it worse because Putin led with his best troops?

The airborne are supposed to be some of their best troops and they've been committed.  Some of the currently active units have the Guards designation, which used to mean something in terms of quality.

My cousin is in the French paratroopers and he tells me it's an open secret how shit the VdV really are. They apparently have an outsize influence in Russia itself and their PR is good, but in terms of operational efficiency they're a laughingstock.

Nothing I've seen so far has proved that analysis wrong. They got wiped out at Hostomel airport apparently.

[Jacob]

From what I've read the VDV are not paratroopers in the Western paradigm (crack troops to parachute in and hold key strategic objectives until the pedestrians show up).

Rather they're the more lethal airmobile equivalent of OMON - boot boys who specialize in brutalizing civilians for putting down poorly organized militias and popular uprising. It does sort of make sense if you consider Russian threat assessment - the ability to quickly show up and demoralize anti-government uprisings (in Russia or in client states) is probably a more regular use case historically. Thus, of course, building up their mystique is very useful.

The problem they ran into is either that they bought into their mystique too much, or that they believed that Ukrainian resistance would crumble under a little pressure.

[Legbiter]

Ukrainians claim to have killed a fourth Russian general. Man they go through them fast.

[Jacob]

Ukrainians claim to have killed a fourth Russian general. Man they go through them fast.

They're doing a pretty job, all told. Here's what I found on AP:

Maj. General Oleg Mityaev died Tuesday during the storming of Mariupol, said Ukrainian Interior Ministry adviser Anton Gerashchenko, who published a photo on Telegram of what he said was the dead officer.

Mityaev, 46, commanded the 150th motorized rifle division and had fought in Syria, Gerashchenko said.

[jimmy olsen]

Ukrainians destroy 10 Russian helicopters and damage 5 others in Kherson.
https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1503903394167070721
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1503890081702100996

[DGuller]

Ukrainians claim to have killed a fourth Russian general. Man they go through them fast.

It's not unusual for Russian generals to die at such a rate in general, but it is highly unusual for so many deaths to happen on the battlefield.

[Zanza]

As for 2014, well, the moment a country has disputed territory, it can't join NATO.  It's not like Russia wasn't aware of that significant little fact.

West Germany was admitted in 1955 when it still officially claimed its 1937 borders and did not acknowledge East Germany as a legitimate state but as occupied territory. 

[The Brain]

Elephantine posters

Why are you always picking on Katmai?

Big target.

[The Brain]

Colbert stole my Putin on the fritz joke.

[celedhring]

So, an aside of this whole crisis is that Bellingcat has been providing a buttload of evidence of - at least - several meetings between Puigdemont or his staff and Kremlin stooges. His is the most unsavory brand of Catalan separatism (ethnonationalism and all that bullshit), and I hope it gets damaged as a result. Their coalition partners (also separatists) are going in for the kill, there's talk of a parlamentary probe.

He's also abstained in several European parliament votes regarding Ukraine and we can guess why.

[celedhring]

As for 2014, well, the moment a country has disputed territory, it can't join NATO.  It's not like Russia wasn't aware of that significant little fact.

Serious question for those more knowledgeable: wasn't Spain admitted despite a "territorial dispute" over Gibraltar?

Turkey and Greece have been at each other's throats for ages, so I don't think territorial disputes between members are an issue.

Makes me wonder how article 5 would work on that regard. I don't know about Gibraltar, but I know that - for example - Ceuta and Melilla are exluded from article 5 protection (which kinda makes me wonder what we're getting from our NATO membership, given that's Spain's #1 security concern, but it's not like we're contributing much either...)

[Solmyr]

Oh shit, Russia also put Trudeau and Freeland on the "unwelcome to Russia" list - and also the leaders of each of the opposition parties as well. Whatever shall we do 

Kind of a small issue in the scheme of things but it is dawning on me that I probably missed my chance to ever visit Russia by not going there in the 1990s or 2000s. Ah well.

I'm fairly sure that I won't be able to visit my home city of St. Petersburg for the rest of my life.

I do hope I can visit Kyiv eventually, as long as it's not reduced to rubble.

[The Brain]

I'm very happy that I visited Ukraine in 2019, I really liked it. I would love to go there some more if this war ends with Ukraine still free. Both to see more of the place, and to support their tourist industry.

I haven't seen the museums of Moscow, which would have been nice. I guess anything's possible, but I'm not holding my breath.