Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Syt]

https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1496954024914046978

Ukrainian MoD claims the Homostel airport has been taken back from the Russians.

[Sheilbh]

Chris Cillizza (of CNN) in his latest editorial (Joe Biden doesn't have a strong political hand to play on Russia) referenced a series of CBS polls from February 11.  The one that caught my eye was that a majority (53%) of Americans at the time said that the US should stay out of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.  While obviously things have have changed since then; I think any action Biden takes, beyond a few sanctions, will be a hard sell.

(I was also relived to see that only 4% said we should support Russia.  Tucker Carlson hasn't managed to convince many people yet.)

Yeah - British opinion is admirably robust


40% want to intervene militarily - which would be insane. About 55% think sanctions should go further and think Putin should be sanctioned personally as should all other Russian political leaders. Interestingly 55% also think Johnson's the wrong type of leader to be PM in this crisis (once the public turn ) and only 6% think no response from NATO/the West would be justified.

[HVC]

in case Putin escalates further.

Like, how?

Take Paris?

[Sheilbh]

Like, how?

Quite.

[Admiral Yi]

Like, how?

No shit.  Are there double secret sanctions they're saving in case Russia attacks a NATO country?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

in case Putin escalates further.

Like, how?

Finland, Sweden
Or if he really has a deathwish: the Baltics.

[HisMajestyBOB]

So, about those EU sanctions...?

Russians will be forced to watch Eurovision until the invasion is stopped.

[HVC]

in case Putin escalates further.

Like, how?

Finland, Sweden
Or if he really has a deathwish: the Baltics.

I mean, what has Sweden done for us lately?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

So, about those EU sanctions...?

Russians will be forced to watch Eurovision until the invasion is stopped.

but only the Ukrainian entries.

[Jacob]

in case Putin escalates further.

Like, how?

Finland, Sweden
Or if he really has a deathwish: the Baltics.

Well if he attacks the Baltics we shouldn't be looking at sanctions but war.

Sweden or Finland... I'd certainly want something more than sanctions as well, even if they're not in NATO.

[OttoVonBismarck]

A lot of this ties into how America's political weakness at home is translating to real strategic weakness. Biden is most likely afraid to target the Russian energy industry because he knows the 2022 elections are coming up, and any serious blow to that industry will cause hugely unpopular gas price hikes at the pumps here. I can't really imagine FDR and JFK having such concerns, and in fact I seem to remember them giving speeches about how Americans have a responsibility to deal with the hard times to achieve important geopolitical goals. Different era I guess.

[Syt]

in case Putin escalates further.

Like, how?

Going full Grozny on Kyiv or Kharkiv?

[OttoVonBismarck]

The fact that U.S. markets actually gained this session is a sign IMO that these sanctions are weak--the market was pricing in much worse sanctions and bounced back because they were mild.

[Sheilbh]

Perhaps the endgame is to install a puppet regime just for long enough to effect recognition of breaking off big chunks of the east and the southern regions under Crimea.  It's hard to conceive how a full scale occupation of the entire country could stick.

Been thinking about this and I could be totally wrong - but I think Putin might be high on his own supply.

There's always been stories about Putin basically saying Ukraine isn't a real country, or lol let's partition Ukraine. I think that's taken a really decisive turn in the last few years. I think of those reports of him living very isolated in the Kremlin - of Macron saying he basically ranted about grievances and history for several hours and has changed from 2019 when you could have a conversation not just a monologue. Also the fear palpable in the footage of the security council meeting even from hawks.

I think he genuinely believes that Ukraine will fold quickly and he will be able to easily re-make it into a pliable Belarus (probably as part of the "union state"). They are ultimately just little Russians who have been brainwashed. I suspect he's wrong. I think Ukraine might  prove more resilient and I think will have far more resistance. But I doubt there's anyone left to tell him.

[Maladict]

For reference, here's an overview of Russian imports and exports by country: https://globaledge.msu.edu/countries/russia/tradestats