Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Josquius]

I've seen it mentioned that many of the bombers were fuelled up with Russia imminently planning to try and break its previous record for launching 108 cruise missiles at one time towards Ukraine- as part of putting itself in a good position for the peace 'negotiations'.

I'm curious to what extent the drones were autonomous vs remote controlled (from where?)

[Legbiter]

An analysis of over 5000 videos of drone attacks on russian soldiers. What works and what doesn't. Basically a military which doesn't have FPV drones is target practice for the military who does. 



https://x.com/LSaillans/status/1930956957042565552

[Jacob]

Interesting reading.

For those who don't want to click on the link:

I spent over 100 hours compiling and analyzing over 5,000 videos of soldiers trying to escape UAV drones — pulling material from Telegram, Reddit, and other sources. Here is what i found out.

There are more videos available. But I had to stop at that stage because of the psychological toll.

I wanted to understand what factors affect survival when soldiers are targeted by drones. Here's what the data revealed:

A/ 67% survival rate in obstructed environments (buildings, dense forests).
 
Why? Drones are designed for speed and detonation, not collision avoidance. Many simply smash into walls, doors, windows, or get tangled in branches and detonate before hitting their target.

B/ 92% death rate in open fields.

No matter the escape method — running on foot, driving, riding a motorbike, or sitting on top of an armored vehicle — the drones outpace and outmaneuver almost every attempt to flee in open terrain.

C/ Armed vehicles provide some protection, but it's limited.

If a vehicle withstands the initial attack and the crew dismounts, the soldiers' survival rates revert to the numbers above (depending on the environment).

But here's the biggest discovery I made:

=> Smoke increases survival rates by 32%.

Whether it's using the smoke from a burning vehicle or deploying a smoke grenade to obscure a forest entrance, smoke acts as a critical cover. It confuses visual tracking systems and gives soldiers a vital edge when escaping drone pursuit.

This analysis isn't just academic — it's a reminder of the terrifying efficiency of modern drone warfare and the importance of environmental and tactical adaptation on the battlefield.

We're building systems to detect and track drones before they strike — even in environments where visual detection or radar struggles.

Our goal: to empower defense forces, critical infrastructure, and public spaces with early warning and real-time situational awareness against drone threats.

We're currently piloting projects in Europe and actively engaging with partners and investors who want to help scale Europe's counter-drone capabilities.

If you want to connect or collaborate, DMs are open!

Research sources:

@dronewar
@strikedronescompany
@VictoryDrones2023
@dronesukraina

Threadreader app link: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1930956957042565552.html

[jimmy olsen]

Perun's analysis of Spiderweb

[Sheilbh]

I wonder how much this attack changes things like basing and security strategies. It certainly seems like the threat landscape is changing.

What are the risks of remote controlled scenarios, as this technology gets more available? I've been more wondering about it in the context of terrorist attacks and assassinations rather than military action, but the principles are the same, I think. Something like self-driving (or parked) cybertruck opening its hatch, to reveal some mortars or grenade armed drones to attack a specific person or location seems within reach of motivated small groups.

What are the main things that stops that type of attack in the future? Perhaps the logistical cost is high enough that it's outside the scope of non-state actors, but I do wonder.

Yeah - although while I'm very much of the view that we need to give Ukraine credit and agency and this is very impressive, I suspect this wave of recent attacks was strongly supported and enabled by a Western country wanting to demonstrate ongoing support and with a sanguine attitude to "escalation" risk (so I'd assume the UK and/or France) sharing intelligence, tech and possibly satellite infrastructure.

So to add to your thought I wonder if this is possibly what asymmetric support looks like while Europe is still re-arming/aspiring to build up its manufacturing base to support Ukraine? Relatedly, I think you're right though and I wonder if this is the next step in war - perhaps moving from how states face asymmetric threats to how they become them (especially in a conflict involving Russia, the US or China).

[Zoupa]

I wonder how much this attack changes things like basing and security strategies. It certainly seems like the threat landscape is changing.

What are the risks of remote controlled scenarios, as this technology gets more available? I've been more wondering about it in the context of terrorist attacks and assassinations rather than military action, but the principles are the same, I think. Something like self-driving (or parked) cybertruck opening its hatch, to reveal some mortars or grenade armed drones to attack a specific person or location seems within reach of motivated small groups.

What are the main things that stops that type of attack in the future? Perhaps the logistical cost is high enough that it's outside the scope of non-state actors, but I do wonder.

Yeah - although while I'm very much of the view that we need to give Ukraine credit and agency and this is very impressive, I suspect this wave of recent attacks was strongly supported and enabled by a Western country wanting to demonstrate ongoing support and with a sanguine attitude to "escalation" risk (so I'd assume the UK and/or France) sharing intelligence, tech and possibly satellite infrastructure.

So to add to your thought I wonder if this is possibly what asymmetric support looks like while Europe is still re-arming/aspiring to build up its manufacturing base to support Ukraine? Relatedly, I think you're right though and I wonder if this is the next step in war - perhaps moving from how states face asymmetric threats to how they become them (especially in a conflict involving Russia, the US or China).

I think you underestimate how much/how easy it is for Ukrainians to infiltrate russia. Their base security is abysmal. I'm not sure you need western Intel when you can just have humint assets.

[DGuller]

Sometimes I do wonder how Ukraine spy agency managed to cleanse itself of the Russian infiltration, which happened during the times of pro-Russian governments.  I wouldn't at all be surprised if that required some western help, since I imagine it's difficult for an intelligence agency to heal itself once it's been infected.

[jimmy olsen]

A note of comparison, this is roughly equivalent to America's casualites in WWII (405k dead, 670k wounded).

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-drone-attacks-kharkiv-0869f159a0b1b0b073dd139a94cffdc1

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — The number of Russian troops killed or wounded in Ukraine has topped 1 million, military officials in Kyiv said Thursday, describing the huge price that Moscow has paid for its 3-year-old invasion.

The claim by the General Staff of the Ukrainian armed forces, which came on a holiday celebrating Russia's sovereignty, is in line with Western intelligence estimates.

[Valmy]

That is probably high, but still points to the huge scale of their losses.

[Admiral Yi]

John Keegan said armies historically crack when the odds of dying reach 1/3.

[Josquius]

John Keegan said armies historically crack when the odds of dying reach 1/3.

What is Russia doing different?
They're way above that with their method of attack in sending in 10 guys, expecting 1 to survive, then sending in more sets of soldiers one after the other until there's enough survivors where they want them to be.

[crazy canuck]

The Russians have changed their tactics

Along the way, Russian forces captured town after town, shifting tactics from the meat-grinder approach seen in the brutal battle for Bakhmut to a more adaptive strategy, using small assault squads to look for weaknesses and punch through Ukrainian lines.
"The enemy uses small-group tactics — two to four, sometimes six soldiers, moving from tree line to tree line or building to building," said Barbarossa, from Ukraine's 72nd Brigade.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/13/world/europe/russia-ukraine-dnipropetrovsk.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Ok8._lPF.2qbTRxIiTMIV&smid=url-share

[Tamas]

The Russians have changed their tactics

Along the way, Russian forces captured town after town, shifting tactics from the meat-grinder approach seen in the brutal battle for Bakhmut to a more adaptive strategy, using small assault squads to look for weaknesses and punch through Ukrainian lines.
"The enemy uses small-group tactics — two to four, sometimes six soldiers, moving from tree line to tree line or building to building," said Barbarossa, from Ukraine's 72nd Brigade.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/13/world/europe/russia-ukraine-dnipropetrovsk.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Ok8._lPF.2qbTRxIiTMIV&smid=url-share

I wonder if this is only because they are learning and now approaching late-WW1 level tactics knowledge, or it is also because they can't afford the mass assaults anymore.

[crazy canuck]

The Russians have changed their tactics

Along the way, Russian forces captured town after town, shifting tactics from the meat-grinder approach seen in the brutal battle for Bakhmut to a more adaptive strategy, using small assault squads to look for weaknesses and punch through Ukrainian lines.
"The enemy uses small-group tactics — two to four, sometimes six soldiers, moving from tree line to tree line or building to building," said Barbarossa, from Ukraine's 72nd Brigade.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/13/world/europe/russia-ukraine-dnipropetrovsk.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Ok8._lPF.2qbTRxIiTMIV&smid=url-share

I wonder if this is only because they are learning and now approaching late-WW1 level tactics knowledge, or it is also because they can't afford the mass assaults anymore.

I am guessing its more that this is what they have been forced to do, necessity being the mother of invention.  And according to the article, unfortunately, it is proving to be effective.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

and with the west still slowwalking and not really making a fist...

edit: I'm not including taco in that, cause tacos don't have fists. This one doesn't even have a hard shell