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The AI dooooooom thread

Started by Hamilcar, April 06, 2023, 12:44:43 PM

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The Minsky Moment

#1035
January 29, 2026, 09:26:27 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 29, 2026, 10:47:23 AMThe problem is people generalizing that utility across all AI tools and especially generative AI tools.

The problem is also not grasping how high the bar is for AI to achieve useful social return on investment.  In the past 10 years, over $2 trillion has been spent on AI development.  That's on the level of all the railway investment in Europe in the entire 19th century.  AI could have a lot of utility and still be a complete bust. 
We have, accordingly, always had plenty of excellent lawyers, though we often had to do without even tolerable administrators, and seen destined to endure the inconvenience of hereafter doing without any constructive statesmen at all.
--Woodrow Wilson

HisMajestyBOB

#1036
January 29, 2026, 10:25:34 PM
Would people in the 19th century have rather had railroads, or this: https://twitter.com/i/status/1984446427632689308
Three lovely Prada points for HoI2 help

crazy canuck

#1037
January 29, 2026, 10:27:05 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 29, 2026, 09:26:27 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 29, 2026, 10:47:23 AMThe problem is people generalizing that utility across all AI tools and especially generative AI tools.

The problem is also not grasping how high the bar is for AI to achieve useful social return on investment.  In the past 10 years, over $2 trillion has been spent on AI development.  That's on the level of all the railway investment in Europe in the entire 19th century.  AI could have a lot of utility and still be a complete bust. 

Agreed.
Awarded 17 Zoupa points

In several surveys, the overwhelming first choice for what makes Canada unique is multiculturalism. This, in a world collapsing into stupid, impoverishing hatreds, is the distinctly Canadian national project.

viper37

#1038
January 30, 2026, 11:41:01 PM
Last fall, Nvidia agreed to take a 100 billion$ stake in OpenAI, in exchange for them buying Nvidia chips (mostly).

That would have given OpenAI the cash it needs for about 1.5 years.

Now, Nvidia is reconsidering this investment.
I don't do meditation.  I drink alcohol to relax, like normal people.

If Microsoft Excel decided to stop working overnight, the world would practically end.

crazy canuck

#1039
January 30, 2026, 11:49:03 PM
Link? I have read the opposite .
Awarded 17 Zoupa points

In several surveys, the overwhelming first choice for what makes Canada unique is multiculturalism. This, in a world collapsing into stupid, impoverishing hatreds, is the distinctly Canadian national project.

garbon

#1040
January 31, 2026, 01:52:50 AM
"I've never been quite sure what the point of a eunuch is, if truth be told. It seems to me they're only men with the useful bits cut off."
I drank because I wanted to drown my sorrows, but now the damned things have learned to swim.

crazy canuck

#1041
January 31, 2026, 07:22:42 AM
Thanks,

This is the bit I was thinking about

QuoteOpenAI is looking to raise up to $100 billion in funding, valuing it at about $830 billion, Reuters ‌has previously reported.

I hadn't heard that Nvidia was getting cold feet about their commitment. So it looks like OpenAI is actively seeking others to step in. Although it could also be that Nvidia is getting cold feet because they grew concerned that further funding was being pursued, and so their equity position was going to be diluted.

Who really knows with so much money sloshing around.

Awarded 17 Zoupa points

In several surveys, the overwhelming first choice for what makes Canada unique is multiculturalism. This, in a world collapsing into stupid, impoverishing hatreds, is the distinctly Canadian national project.

viper37

#1042
January 31, 2026, 05:21:59 PM
I don't do meditation.  I drink alcohol to relax, like normal people.

If Microsoft Excel decided to stop working overnight, the world would practically end.

Valmy

#1043
January 31, 2026, 07:44:01 PM
Why would somebody make this? Humans already have enough weird reddits. We don't need to spend billions to make artificial ones.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

viper37

#1044
January 31, 2026, 08:17:52 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 31, 2026, 07:22:42 AMThanks,

This is the bit I was thinking about

QuoteOpenAI is looking to raise up to $100 billion in funding, valuing it at about $830 billion, Reuters ‌has previously reported.

I hadn't heard that Nvidia was getting cold feet about their commitment. So it looks like OpenAI is actively seeking others to step in. Although it could also be that Nvidia is getting cold feet because they grew concerned that further funding was being pursued, and so their equity position was going to be diluted.

Who really knows with so much money sloshing around.


An update from Nvidia

They're saying they will invest in OpenAI, but they're not saying they will invest 100 billion$, contrary to what was said last fall.

I don't do meditation.  I drink alcohol to relax, like normal people.

If Microsoft Excel decided to stop working overnight, the world would practically end.

viper37

#1045
January 31, 2026, 08:19:58 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 31, 2026, 07:44:01 PMWhy would somebody make this? Humans already have enough weird reddits. We don't need to spend billions to make artificial ones.
I'm not sure if the AI agents didn't sort of, created this themselves, while researchers wanted to observe their behavior.

They decided to emulate humans.

There is one interesting convo about the use of memory, comparing their stored memories to human memory and how to access them faster, debating pros and cons.

It's fascinating, I could almost think it's humans discussing on Reddit.
I don't do meditation.  I drink alcohol to relax, like normal people.

If Microsoft Excel decided to stop working overnight, the world would practically end.

Valmy

#1046
January 31, 2026, 08:27:15 PM
If James throws out his sister, will Ely plot revenge?
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

HVC

#1047
January 31, 2026, 08:51:01 PM
Quote from: viper37 on January 31, 2026, 08:19:58 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 31, 2026, 07:44:01 PMWhy would somebody make this? Humans already have enough weird reddits. We don't need to spend billions to make artificial ones.
I'm not sure if the AI agents didn't sort of, created this themselves, while researchers wanted to observe their behavior.

They decided to emulate humans.

There is one interesting convo about the use of memory, comparing their stored memories to human memory and how to access them faster, debating pros and cons.

It's fascinating, I could almost think it's humans discussing on Reddit.


It is humans discussing on Reddit. AI uses Reddit to learn. It's regurgitating what it's learned.
Being lazy is bad; unless you still get what you want, then it's called "patience".
Hubris must be punished. Severely.

Legbiter

#1048
January 31, 2026, 10:25:33 PM
Quote from: HVC on January 31, 2026, 08:51:01 PMIt is humans discussing on Reddit. AI uses Reddit to learn. It's regurgitating what it's learned.

Yeah.



There was Backroom a few months ago but that didn't get any attention. Actually this is LLM's in their essence I'd say. Simulating redditors.
Posted using 100% recycled electrons.
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