The EU thread

[Sheilbh]

I'd add that I think the biggest reason to doubt that Russia is deterred is the behaviour of the peripheral EU countries.

They are the countries re-arming most rapidly.

But also just look at thir response to Greenland where Lithuania condemned France's call to consider retaliatory tariff as immediately reaching for the "bazooka" to use against a "partner" (particularly ironic as the retaliatory tariff regime was established in response to China's attempt to bully Lithuania). Polish leaders suggested Greenland was not an issue that should involve the EU. Tusk did not sign on to any of the joint statements by European leaders and explicitly ruled out contributing to any (Danish requested) NATO mission to Greenland. That to me suggests that those countries who are most exposed to the Russian risk feel they need to rapidly build up their own forces, and their best hope is still the US. I'd be reluctant to dismiss that (especially given how many warnings by the Baltic states and Poland were dismissed over the last 20 years when they were right).

I think it also goes to the challenge for the EU around defence and security which is that it's not just about the political will of the leaders. But a real structural problem in building any unified policy is the profoundly different risk/threat assessments and strategic views of different countries/regions.

Edit: Or to frame it another way on Europe/the EU's deterrence capacity - I think there's a reason Ukraine joining NATO is a red line but Russia is willing to accept EU membership.

But depending on how Ukraine ends up, Russia could end up in a position where they have access to Slovakia, Hungary, or Romania. How much would the EU fight to defend those countries? What would European recruitment look like if a destabilized Orban invited Russian soldiers into Hungary?

This slightly reminds me of the Yes Prime Minister bit on using nukes - there's a longer clip, but here on how it might start:

[The Brain]

Europe needs to 1) massively expand its armed forces, and 2) display a willingness to use them. Whether it's Bully Blue or Bully Red, Europe needs to slap bullies who get too frisky.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Europe needs to 1) massively expand its armed forces, and 2) display a willingness to use them. Whether it's Bully Blue or Bully Red, Europe needs to slap bullies who get too frisky.

indeed, and I don't think we're there yet mentally. In general