Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[HVC]

1% doesn't seem like a lot. Also, you all flocking to America until the early 1900s probably skews the numbers a bit. Not the net flow exactly, but the appearance of people entering.

But isn't the point that actually it's not just an abstract or the number but the change and its pace - which is significant. It's not just the early 1900s but basically as far back as we can reliably go more people left the UK than entered, which has changed in the last few decades and very significantly in recent years. As I say I think that's possibly a common European experience.

But that's my point. It's not that more people are coming to the uk, it's that America (and Australia) are full so you can't get there as easily as before. Your avenues of escape are diminishing, basically . So those bemoaning people coming to the island get a distorted view from charts like that.

[HVC]

1% doesn't seem like a lot. Also, you all flocking to America until the early 1900s probably skews the numbers a bit. Not the net flow exactly, but the appearance of people entering.

Also, Indians are everywhere kind of wonder if they're the number one immigrant to most western countries? I even hear Portuguese people mentioning the influx of Indian immigrants. I guess goa might be a reason, but never really thought of Indian immigration to Portugal before. 

1% per year, every year, is absolutely a lot of immigration.  It's about the same rate we're taking immigrants (400,000 per year in a nation of 39 million).

Fair enough.

[HVC]

But yeah Goa, Daman and Diu - I could be wrong but I'd guess that's a significant proportion of Indian migrants in Portugal.

My understanding is the new wave aren't from those regions. But it's 3rd hand/broken telephone so I can be wrong. Most are moving to Lisbon and Porto, so not as noticeable, but there's a heathy number moving to the alentejo. Property prices and what not. Since that area is depopulated it's much more noticeable. I mean it's good that areas are getting populated (and as a Canadian I have a generally good view on immigration). But in circumstances like that integration is much harder.

*edit* older wave also had a lot of Tamil Christians, besides goans and Goan neighbours

[Sheilbh]

But that's my point. It's not that more people are coming to the uk, it's that America (and Australia) are full so you can't get there as easily as before. Your avenues of escape are diminishing, basically . So those bemoaning people coming to the island get a distorted view from charts like that.

So maybe compared to the early 20th century.

For the post-war I believe the outflow is pretty stable at about 500k per year. That includes Brits leaving but also migrants moving back or to another country (similarly Brits can be immigrants if they're returning from living abroad).

What has changed is the inflow which has gone from about 750k per year 15 years ago to 1.25-1.5 million per year in the last few years.

(I'd add here there are probably some statistical errors with this - e.g. the UK statistics office underestimated the number of EU citizens living in the UK by half. So it may have been higher in fact but not in stats. Also the way statistics on immigration are collected is basically surveys at the point of entry which doesn't seem the best but absent registration/ID cards....)

[HVC]

But that's my point. It's not that more people are coming to the uk, it's that America (and Australia) are full so you can't get there as easily as before. Your avenues of escape are diminishing, basically . So those bemoaning people coming to the island get a distorted view from charts like that.

So maybe compared to the early 20th century.

For the post-war I believe the outflow is pretty stable at about 500k per year. That includes Brits leaving but also migrants moving back or to another country (similarly Brits can be immigrants if they're returning from living abroad).

What has changed is the inflow which has gone from about 750k per year 15 years ago to 1.25-1.5 million per year in the last few years.

(I'd add here there are probably some statistical errors with this - e.g. the UK statistics office underestimated the number of EU citizens living in the UK by half. So it may have been higher in fact but not in stats. Also the way statistics on immigration are collected is basically surveys at the point of entry which doesn't seem the best but absent registration/ID cards....)

I guess my qualm was moving the trend back into the 1800

[Sheilbh]

Watching the debate randomly. It's quite painful. Shouldn't be happening really.

Honestly my main thought, even though Sunak was shouting and talking over a lot which isn't a good look, was that 45 seconds is not long enough to respond. If you're getting fairly involved questions with personal experience I think the politicians need at least a couple of minutes to respond to the person and then develop a thought.

I just don't think "how would you fix the NHS, you have 45 seconds Prime Minister" serves anyone, including the public, particularly well.

I guess my qualm was moving the trend back into the 1800

Oh I think that's just as far back as we can really go (the BofE loves producing long range stats ) and the broad point that I think is relevant, whatever the cause, is moving from generally a country where more people leave than arrive to the opposite. As I say I think it's a European experience that is quite novel.

[Tamas]

So if that's net migration, has somebody looked into it if it's not skewed by East Euros, Poles in particular, leaving? Poland has been having it pretty well lately and frankly there parts of the UK which I would not choose over the best/better parts of Poland.

[Sheilbh]

So if that's net migration, has somebody looked into it if it's not skewed by East Euros, Poles in particular, leaving? Poland has been having it pretty well lately and frankly there parts of the UK which I would not choose over the best/better parts of Poland.

It's definitely part of it - EU is now probably in net emigration). So here's the inflow:


And the outflow:


As I say my understanding is that the outflow of about 500k is broadly pretty stable - it bobs up and down but is around that number. So most of the changes in net migration is from the inflow.

Obviously there are also a few exceptional things in recent years - covid and post-lockdown migration (particularly with students - can't help but think the recent uptick in non-EU emigrants three years after 2020 is tied to students and the pandemic), Hong Kong and Ukraine. Those will level out.