Iran War

[Duque de Bragança]

Can't stop winning!

[Zanza]

Since the White House knows absolutely nothing about dealmaking the US seems unlikely to get a good deal.

Fuckit, the eu could have gotten a good deal instead of that stupid trade deal we have now

Yes, that deal looks sillier by the minute. Then again, Trump likes to hurt former American allies while he cowtows to its former enemies.

[frunk]

Since the White House knows absolutely nothing about dealmaking the US seems unlikely to get a good deal.

Fuckit, the eu could have gotten a good deal instead of that stupid trade deal we have now

Yes, that deal looks sillier by the minute. Then again, Trump likes to hurt former American allies while he cowtows to its former enemies.

Almost certainly the US will break this deal, it's just a question of when.  We are by far the least trustworthy party in any agreement right now.

[crazy canuck]

Since the White House knows absolutely nothing about dealmaking the US seems unlikely to get a good deal.

Fuckit, the eu could have gotten a good deal instead of that stupid trade deal we have now

Yes, that deal looks sillier by the minute. Then again, Trump likes to hurt former American allies while he cowtows to its former enemies.

Almost certainly the US will break this deal, it's just a question of when.  We are by far the least trustworthy party in any agreement right now.

Yeah, Trump needs to blame gas prices on something other than his war for the mid terms.  After that all bets are off.

[Sheilbh]

Obviously let's wait and see and I know I bang on about it - but again I'm just struck by how bad this is for Netanyahu. His goal for thirty years, his career built on being the guy who gets the threat from Iran and knows how to play DC. It's an extraordinary failure - with real consequences for Israel (and the Israeli right appears to be having a bit of a breakdown about it).

[Darth Wagtaros]

Obviously let's wait and see and I know I bang on about it - but again I'm just struck by how bad this is for Netanyahu. His goal for thirty years, his career built on being the guy who gets the threat from Iran and knows how to play DC. It's an extraordinary failure - with real consequences for Israel (and the Israeli right appears to be having a bit of a breakdown about it).

At least there is a bit of humor here.

I'm still struck by the cognitive shift in the US.  Republicans are yelling that questioning the deal: its existence, its points (whatever they are) is unpatriotic.  From what we've seen so far the framework of the outline of the proposal is ridiculously unfavorable for the US and Western interests is it not?

[mongers]

Obviously let's wait and see and I know I bang on about it - but again I'm just struck by how bad this is for Netanyahu. His goal for thirty years, his career built on being the guy who gets the threat from Iran and knows how to play DC. It's an extraordinary failure - with real consequences for Israel (and the Israeli right appears to be having a bit of a breakdown about it).

At least there is a bit of humor here.

I'm still struck by the cognitive shift in the US.  Republicans are yelling that questioning the deal: its existence, its points (whatever they are) is unpatriotic.  From what we've seen so far the framework of the outline of the proposal is ridiculously unfavorable for the US and Western interests is it not?

Those should really be decoupled now.

There's an argument to be made that it's in the wider West's interest for trumpist America to be humiliated by this outcome and so perhaps less likely for it to end up attacking a NATO ally.

[Sheilbh]

Those should really be decoupled now.

There's an argument to be made that it's in the wider West's interest for trumpist America to be humiliated by this outcome and so perhaps less likely for it to end up attacking a NATO ally.

Sure but it doesn't just mean the enemy of my enemy.

A more powerful Iran is not good for the rest of the "West", while fully acknowledging that the West is an economic bloc built in the aftermath of two American victories, by American hegemony and defended by American arms. We're an assortment of satrapies with picturesque local traditions - and any idea of decoupling needs to start with changing that rather than leaping ahead to the conclusion.

But Iran are close to China, they've been sending missiles to Russia to strike Ukraine for several years now, the IRGC and Iranian backed terrorists have been active in Europe (including, according to the intelligence agencies, some of the recent attacks on the Jewish community in the UK).

The powers that are opposed to the US are not in favour of a liberal rules based order that is good for herbivores like Europe. They consider the current global system as disadvantaging them (and they're not wrong) and are revisionist (as is perfectly reasonable). I'd argue the loser from their change to the world order will not be Trumpist America with the world's largest military, with a comparably robust economy, with energy security - they'll be fine in a dog-eat-dog world. Sure they're chaotic now but there's a lot of ruin in a nation and they've got the guns, emerging technologies, economic base and energy to be fine. It's the rest of us who'll be fucked (until we build up our militaries, industrial base and sort out our energy security).

I'd add particularly in the context of the Middle East that a more secure Iran, flush with cash and led by the IRGC, comfortable with rebuilding its proxies and a more disordered Middle East is bad for Europe. We do not have the capacity to meaningfully influence what's happening there and yet from energy to refugee flows to our own domestic poliics it is a fundamenally important region in our near neighbourhood. And I'd hope that we finally stop holding our nose and get on a plane to Ankara to work out in a more meaningful way how we can start to work with key regional players who actually have power they are able to project to influence the region (and indeed with Saudi, with Syria). It may well be that it is coming to a bit more of a positive relationship with Iran (but as with China - I don't see how that doesn't run through an accommodation with Moscow). As is often the case with American empire - they're far away and don't really feel the impact of their failures (Rana Dasgupta in After Nations even, rather provocatively, suggests America's distance/empire from 30,000 feet makes it more destructive at the local/experienced level).

Also I'm not sure "don't start a war with a country that has leverage over global energy markets and can use it" necessarily has many lessons to learn for, say, turning around and taking out your frustration on Denmark. We don't have that leverage.

[The Minsky Moment]

Obviously let's wait and see and I know I bang on about it - but again I'm just struck by how bad this is for Netanyahu. His goal for thirty years, his career built on being the guy who gets the threat from Iran and knows how to play DC. It's an extraordinary failure - with real consequences for Israel (and the Israeli right appears to be having a bit of a breakdown about it).

Well he did know how to play DC.  He played it expertly.  The problem was not realizing the prize was a trap. Now you have Trump as an ally.  But everything Trump touches turns to shit; everyone that allies with him is ruined. The track record was there, he just ignored it and hoped we would be the one to break the streak, just like the hundreds of ruined fools that preceded him.

[HisMajestyBOB]

So the details coming out about the deal make it sound about as close to total surrender as you could get without the Iranian Republican Guard marching down Constitution Avenue.

Normally this would be the absolute death knell for a president's party's electoral chances. However, I suspect that between the lower gas prices, Republicans being Trump's lickspittles, and our media being captive by billionaires, this MOU will actually improve the Republicans' chances in the midterms. 

[Valmy]

We'll see if we even get to be to do this surrender.

[Jacob]

The impact of oligarch media capture is pretty significant, yes.

[HisMajestyBOB]

We'll see if we even get to be to do this surrender.

Trump seems pretty determined to get the oil going again. If this one fails, I guess the next steps will be military strikes on Israel and converting to Shia Islam.

[Norgy]

I am starting to think that this Trump may not be the greatest dealmaker in history.