Quick Quagmire Poll (Iran, Mar 26 - 31)

Started by Jacob, March 26, 2026, 09:30:11 PM

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Will Trump put boots on the ground in Iranian territory in the next three months?

No. The troop movement is purely posturing. He will not use ground troops in Iranian territory.
2 (6.7%)
Yes, but only special forces quick strikes before withdrawing and similar. No ground will be held.
8 (26.7%)
Yes, he will take and hold Iranian territory with limited objectives. He'll stick to those objectives and not be drawn further in.
4 (13.3%)
Yes. He'll strike with a limited force and limited objectives, but one thing will lead to another and the American commitment will continue to grow into large, messy deployment.
14 (46.7%)
Yes, but he'll somehow rustle up the forces for a major deployment to take and hold ground at a large scale.
1 (3.3%)
No, because the conflict will come to an end before such a scenario becomes necessary.
1 (3.3%)

Total Members Voted: 30

Voting closed: March 31, 2026, 09:30:11 PM

HVC

A dragon shaped swarm of drones dive bombing into an army formation would look cool, if nothing else.
Being lazy is bad; unless you still get what you want, then it's called "patience".
Hubris must be punished. Severely.

The Minsky Moment

Quote from: crazy canuck on May 12, 2026, 12:34:19 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 12, 2026, 12:26:45 PMI am a Europe bull relatively speaking, but there is no hope for Europe projecting meaningful power into the Pacific.
It doesn't need to. That is an American concern.  I am speaking about the larger void the Americans are leaving in the world - one the Europeans can fill.

Taiwan is global concern, unless Europeans are prepared to dispense with microchips.
We have, accordingly, always had plenty of excellent lawyers, though we often had to do without even tolerable administrators, and seen destined to endure the inconvenience of hereafter doing without any constructive statesmen at all.
--Woodrow Wilson

crazy canuck

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 13, 2026, 09:01:52 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on May 12, 2026, 12:34:19 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 12, 2026, 12:26:45 PMI am a Europe bull relatively speaking, but there is no hope for Europe projecting meaningful power into the Pacific.
It doesn't need to. That is an American concern.  I am speaking about the larger void the Americans are leaving in the world - one the Europeans can fill.

Taiwan is global concern, unless Europeans are prepared to dispense with microchips.


Microchips are a global concern, not who owns Taiwan.  The two are not necessarily linked
Awarded 17 Zoupa points

In several surveys, the overwhelming first choice for what makes Canada unique is multiculturalism. This, in a world collapsing into stupid, impoverishing hatreds, is the distinctly Canadian national project.

Grey Fox

Getting ready to make IEDs against American Occupation Forces.

"But I didn't vote for him"; they cried.

dane

Quote from: crazy canuck on May 14, 2026, 07:23:56 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 13, 2026, 09:01:52 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on May 12, 2026, 12:34:19 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 12, 2026, 12:26:45 PMI am a Europe bull relatively speaking, but there is no hope for Europe projecting meaningful power into the Pacific.
It doesn't need to. That is an American concern.  I am speaking about the larger void the Americans are leaving in the world - one the Europeans can fill.

Taiwan is global concern, unless Europeans are prepared to dispense with microchips.


Microchips are a global concern, not who owns Taiwan.  The two are not necessarily linked
Nice to see such resounding support for a democracy from someone who constantly bemoans the lack of support Ukraine gets.

grumbler

Quote from: Grey Fox on May 14, 2026, 08:57:30 AMThey are tho.

It seems possible that we can solve the chip issue without resolving the Taiwan issue, so it seems fair to say that"the two are not necessarily linked."
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

crazy canuck

Quote from: dane on May 14, 2026, 09:40:58 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on May 14, 2026, 07:23:56 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 13, 2026, 09:01:52 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on May 12, 2026, 12:34:19 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 12, 2026, 12:26:45 PMI am a Europe bull relatively speaking, but there is no hope for Europe projecting meaningful power into the Pacific.
It doesn't need to. That is an American concern.  I am speaking about the larger void the Americans are leaving in the world - one the Europeans can fill.

Taiwan is global concern, unless Europeans are prepared to dispense with microchips.


Microchips are a global concern, not who owns Taiwan.  The two are not necessarily linked
Nice to see such resounding support for a democracy from someone who constantly bemoans the lack of support Ukraine gets.

First, I think you may be mixing me up with somebody else.

But second, you haven't been paying attention if you think that supporting the American position is supporting democracy.
Awarded 17 Zoupa points

In several surveys, the overwhelming first choice for what makes Canada unique is multiculturalism. This, in a world collapsing into stupid, impoverishing hatreds, is the distinctly Canadian national project.

dane

Quote from: crazy canuck on May 15, 2026, 10:09:46 AM
Quote from: dane on May 14, 2026, 09:40:58 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on May 14, 2026, 07:23:56 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 13, 2026, 09:01:52 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on May 12, 2026, 12:34:19 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 12, 2026, 12:26:45 PMI am a Europe bull relatively speaking, but there is no hope for Europe projecting meaningful power into the Pacific.
It doesn't need to. That is an American concern.  I am speaking about the larger void the Americans are leaving in the world - one the Europeans can fill.

Taiwan is global concern, unless Europeans are prepared to dispense with microchips.


Microchips are a global concern, not who owns Taiwan.  The two are not necessarily linked
Nice to see such resounding support for a democracy from someone who constantly bemoans the lack of support Ukraine gets.

First, I think you may be mixing me up with somebody else.

But second, you haven't been paying attention if you think that supporting the American position is supporting democracy.
I was referring to your seeming lack of interest in Taiwan's fate.

crazy canuck

Quote from: dane on May 15, 2026, 07:55:47 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on May 15, 2026, 10:09:46 AM
Quote from: dane on May 14, 2026, 09:40:58 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on May 14, 2026, 07:23:56 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 13, 2026, 09:01:52 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on May 12, 2026, 12:34:19 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 12, 2026, 12:26:45 PMI am a Europe bull relatively speaking, but there is no hope for Europe projecting meaningful power into the Pacific.
It doesn't need to. That is an American concern.  I am speaking about the larger void the Americans are leaving in the world - one the Europeans can fill.

Taiwan is global concern, unless Europeans are prepared to dispense with microchips.


Microchips are a global concern, not who owns Taiwan.  The two are not necessarily linked
Nice to see such resounding support for a democracy from someone who constantly bemoans the lack of support Ukraine gets.

First, I think you may be mixing me up with somebody else.

But second, you haven't been paying attention if you think that supporting the American position is supporting democracy.
I was referring to your seeming lack of interest in Taiwan's fate.

How has Taiwan's fate ever been tied to Europe's inability to project power into that area of the pacific?
Awarded 17 Zoupa points

In several surveys, the overwhelming first choice for what makes Canada unique is multiculturalism. This, in a world collapsing into stupid, impoverishing hatreds, is the distinctly Canadian national project.

dane

If you don't think that Europe has any levers to pull to help deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, then you have a dim view of European geopolitical power.

But again, I was triggered by your apparent lack of interest in whether Taiwan is a self-ruling democracy in post #47.