Iran War

[Sheilbh]

Hasn't that been the purview of Russia, China, and their fellow travellers?

Yeah - also Latin American and Asian thinkers and politicians. A fair few Europeans (especially French) too. I have a bit of an old school third worldist view - I even specifically went to Bandung to visit the conference museum when I was on holiday in Indonesia (because I'm a nerd ) - so I'm not unsympathetic to a multipolar world.

But I also think what you think about it kind of doesn't matter - it is just reality. The single biggest fact driving this, and I think the central fact in our world is China. The "West" represented two thirds of global GDP in 1990, it's now about or just under a third - it's not our world anymore, which I think is a cause of a lot of our morbid symptoms. But I don't for one second mourn the demise of the 1990s, I think it was, to nick a bit of Auden, a low, dishonest decade.

Whether we are, as a world, capable of building something new and more enduring - and a more just, democratic distribution of global power - is uncertain but we're going to have to try because that's the world that's coming.  I think that is the challenge and I think Western countries need to be in a position to advance their own interests but also engage with the rest of the world as equals, who also have their own interests which we need to take account of and work with as equals.

[DGuller]

This was impossible to foresee.

It's like Iran closing the strait.  How could one predict that?  You'd have to know what Iran did in the past to guess that and no one can predict the past.

In order to foresee problems with China, you have to be some incredible genius that knows fiendishly complicated things. Like that China exists and it may have some interest in shipping.

To be fair, fighting the last war is a very common mistake in war planning.  For all his faults, Trump didn't overlearn from the past wars.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

over the years I've heard lots of people pining for multipolarity tbh. They couldn't wait for US hegemony to be over. Well, here it is and it'll be a wild ride

Hasn't that been the purview of Russia, China, and their fellow travellers?

It were usually lefties. Far lefties, but those are indeed fellow travellers of the Russians, Chinese, north Koreans or islamists. Sometimes all of them at once.
As for the usual suspects on the right: was less of thing until orban and then putins Ukrainian holiday.
Now it's all over the place

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I don't think it is that people are earning for a multipolar world as much as it is the United States voluntarily abandoning the advantageous position it had internationally, and now everyone else is doing their best to adapt to the new reality.

over the years I've heard lots of people pining for multipolarity tbh. They couldn't wait for US hegemony to be over. Well, here it is and it'll be a wild ride

Well if they are Euros, I just want to point out they have structured themselves as something similar to the Holy Roman Empire or Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and we have seen how those stood up to a cutthroat world of ruthless power politics in the past.

Yes, but you really need to be aware of why that setup is as it is. The small countries would never had stood for a system in which they can be always overruled by the big 3 (now 5). This is Europe, where nations are old and have grievances. As opposed to the US where nations didn't exist, states were young and you had a clear slate. And even there it wasn't easy.
But yes, in current circumstances the setup is problematic

[Legbiter]

How will China respond if their shipping is blockaded on a continuing basis?

They arrange for all inbound merchant traffic to be China-flagged and dare the burgers to start a war with them?

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

They arrange for all inbound merchant traffic to be China-flagged and dare the burgers to start a war with them?

Kuwaiti Tanker Reflagging 2: Sichuan Style

[Tamas]

Have we thought this through?

 

[Valmy]

Nothing gives me quite as much schadenfreude than seeing the delusional idiots who think Trump can be their friend having to eat shit.

[jimmy olsen]

 
https://x.com/spectatorindex/status/2044556311581606025?s=46&t=BHs6Pl38GJXGN2Y4xeriNA

The Pentagon has approached automakers General Motors and Ford about shifting some capacity to 'make arms and military supplies', according to Wall Street Journal.

[Norgy]

GMC trucks and Fords with "The Protocols of The Elders of Zion" as a complimentary gift?

[Valmy]

https://x.com/spectatorindex/status/2044556311581606025?s=46&t=BHs6Pl38GJXGN2Y4xeriNA

The Pentagon has approached automakers General Motors and Ford about shifting some capacity to 'make arms and military supplies', according to Wall Street Journal.

I don't mind a little more competition in this space. Having this industry be cartels, or even monopolies, is a problem.

[Sheilbh]

Interesting from Hamidreza Azizi that Russia's Security Council has issued a statement saying "the United States and Israel can use the peace talks to prepare for a ground operation against Iran, as the Pentagon continues to increase US troop numbers in the region." It's a general statement but apparently being interpreted in Tehran as a public heads-up to the regime by Moscow.

I assume part of the purpose in making it public so the US and Israel know Iran knows if that makes sense (not for the first time I'm slightly reminded of Ukraine echoes).

Also via him I thought this Bloomberg summary was interesting:


And Reuters reporting analysts think Iran can take two months of a complete halt of oil exports before they'd need to cut production.

Edit: Again if the US is willing to move on those points and reach some compromise with Iran - that's a catastrophically bad result for Israel. The Iranian regime survives (arguably revivified and with a new generation at the top), unsanctioned and with new income streams. Whether it's re-building the axis of resistance or eventual enrichment Iran would be in a far stronger position.

[crazy canuck]

I am so happy to hear that a language poster is now transmitting Russian propaganda.

[crazy canuck]

Aviation fuel is running short. Airline cancellations are going to increase, and especially flights to and from Europe.

RIP World Cup?

[Jacob]

I'd be very interested in an overview of American troop accumulation and movement in the region.

Last time it was a topic, some airborne were being repositioned into theatre and some MEF troops were en route. Presumably they're in place now.

Based on what we know, has the possible scale of potential American or Israeli ground operations changed?