Quick Quagmire Poll (Iran, Mar 26 - 31)

[Jacob]

Poll is open only for five days.

What does languish think? Is Trump going to put boots on the ground in Iran, and if so how is it going to go in terms of escalation.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

I voted spec ops, but I was torn between that and limited objectives that stay that way.  What pushed be towards the latter is the noise about taking a couple of the mid-Gulf islands that Iran owns but the UAE claims (Taub and Abu Musa).  They're far enough away from Iran proper to be able to defend effectively without more forces, are somewhat strategic in that they're two small airfields in the middle of the Gulf, and would satisfy the Robber Baron in Chief's anachronistic desire to possess something.

[Grey Fox]

Hegseth & Trump think that every problem is a nail and the USA has many many hammers in it's military toolbox.

Escalation4ever

[Valmy]

We'll strike something to show how big our dicks are and get drawn in.

[Jacob]

I voted spec ops, but I was torn between that and limited objectives that stay that way.  What pushed be towards the latter is the noise about taking a couple of the mid-Gulf islands that Iran owns but the UAE claims (Taub and Abu Musa).  They're far enough away from Iran proper to be able to defend effectively without more forces, are somewhat strategic in that they're two small airfields in the middle of the Gulf, and would satisfy the Robber Baron in Chief's anachronistic desire to possess something.

Oh interesting. I guess that's an alternative to the "take Kharg Island" potential scenario for how the HEU / Airborne might be used.

* wanders off to look up Taub and Abu Musa *

[Crazy_Ivan80]

It'll be messy and escalate.
Giggity.
 

[crazy canuck]

It's going to be what - mid April before the MEU units are in theatre?  I voted option 1, but also the last option is viable.

[The Brain]

Really hard to guess, since there is no plan at all, but I'll be surprised if the US decides to put huge ground forces into Iran. But if they do, a greatly weakened America will make Nato allies sleep better at night.

[Valmy]

Really hard to guess, since there is no plan at all, but I'll be surprised if the US decides to put huge ground forces into Iran. But if they do, a greatly weakened America will make Nato allies sleep better at night.

Oh we will. Our boys are going in.

[Jacob]

I voted quagmire. I think the most likely outcome is that Trump is going to put boots on ground somewhere at some point, and think once he does that it'll inevitably turn into a larger deployment.

[Zanza]

The Straits of Hormuz is next to the city Bandar Abbas, with a population of 500,000. Just taking that city alone would surely take a massive invasion force. But if you don't take it, how do you reopen the Straits?

I doubt that there will be boots on the ground on the Iranian mainland. Maybe those aforementioned isles. But that will not change the strategic situation.

[HVC]

It's all fun and games until Trump realizes he can't beat them and nukes an Iranian city.

[celedhring]

I think right now he's looking for a way to declare victory and pull out, so I voted last.

[Richard Hakluyt]

It took me a while to vote on this one; in the end I went for the most stupid option ie escalation till it becomes a real quagmire like Vietnam.....still hope that the muddle-headed fool will end up being influenced by someone with strategic nous and back off, but fear that is just wishful thinking.

[The Minsky Moment]

It's really hard to assess because I have so little experience with writing scenario lines for TV shows, which appears to be the best way to predict administration actions.

So will do my best . . . Sending that number of Marines doesn't send spec force only vibes.  That suggests either 1 or 4. Either they are being sent as a precaution to respond against an unexpected move, or they are being tasked to grab one or more islands.  If they invade it can't be limited because the Iranians get a vote.

Common sense says 1.

Therefore I pick 4.