Iran War?

[Jacob]

I'm not super familiar with the Hormuz landscape. What's the deal with Kharg Island?

Is it where Iran export their oil from? And it's also a strategically commanding place to project power from, but conversely also somewhat vulnerable as a target?

[viper37]

It is hard for me to vocalize how crushingly depressing this war is.

The President has declared the war over.  Iran has been crushed.
So he has asked other countries to send warships to reopen the straight... sorry, to keep it open...

US president urges nations to deploy vessels to keep key oil shipping route open amid conflict with Iran

Donald Trump has said the UK should send warships to help keep the strait of Hormuz open.
In a post on his Truth Social platform, the US president urged the UK and other countries to deploy vessels to the strait amid the conflict with Iran.

The strait is a key trading artery between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, through which a fifth of the world's oil passes. Last year, about 20m barrels of oil passed through the strait each day.
Since the US and Israel first launched strikes on Iran a fortnight ago, numerous ships travelling through the strait have been attacked. It is now effectively closed, driving up oil prices and putting intense pressure on the global economy.
Trump wrote on Saturday: "Many Countries, especially those who are affected by Iran's attempted closure of the Hormuz Strait, will be sending War Ships, in conjunction with the United States of America, to keep the Strait open and safe.
"We have already destroyed 100% of Iran's Military capability, but it's easy for them to send a drone or two, drop a mine, or deliver a close range missile somewhere along, or in, this Waterway, no matter how badly defeated they are.
"Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others, that are affected by this artificial constraint, will send Ships to the area so that the Hormuz Strait will no longer be a threat by a Nation that has been totally decapitated.
"In the meantime, the United States will be bombing the hell out of the shoreline, and continually shooting Iranian Boats and Ships out of the water. One way or the other, we will soon get the Hormuz Strait OPEN, SAFE, and FREE!"

[Duque de Bragança]

Sadly, the Royal Navy is a bit short on ships right now.  Maybe the Royale can escort the Royal Navy though.

Not to mention Truth Social is hardly the preferred diplomatic platform. 

[Tonitrus]

I'm not super familiar with the Hormuz landscape. What's the deal with Kharg Island?

Is it where Iran export their oil from? And it's also a strategically commanding place to project power from, but conversely also somewhat vulnerable as a target?

I doubt much oil is being exported from it while fighting is ongoing.

Kharg island is also all the way up the gulf...the ships carrying those Marines will be a Iran's target #1 all the way up through the SoH and several hundred miles along Iranian coastline.

And then what do we have after we take it?  A big, stationary, nearby, target full of Marines for Iran to shoot at. 

I think any power projection value is minimal to nonexistant...we have the legs to do it much that much more safely from several other places (that are also already being shot at).

[Jacob]

So taking Kharg Island is basically a straight up "we're taking your oil" move?

[The Minsky Moment]

There's no oil production on Kharg.  There's some storage, barely enough for a week of national production. Taking Kharg doesn't take any oil, it just blocks the Iranian from effectively exporting it by sea.

[Jacob]

Ah I see. Thanks.

[viper37]

Drones attack one of the world's largest oil terminals in the UAE – video

Several Iranian drones attacked oil storage facilities in the port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates on March 14. A fire broke out at the site, according to CNN and Turkiye today.
Emergency services arrived at the scene to extinguish the fire, and authorities are assessing the damage. The port is reportedly one of the world's largest oil storage and bunkering centers after Singapore.

The port of Fujairah is located outside the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf of Oman, making it a strategically important energy center that allows oil to be exported bypassing the Strait.
Pros data according to Bloomberg's sources, some oil loading operations at the port of Fujairah were suspended after a drone attack and fire.

The day before, on March 13, the United States destroyed military targets on Iran's main oil hub, Kharg Island. This was announced by US President Donald Trump and threatened to strike at Iran's oil infrastructure if Tehran continues its attacks, which have paralyzed much of the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, transmits Reuters.

LIGA.net analyzed how the escalation in the Middle East may be affected by on the dollar, cryptocurrency, and gold. The experts also explained, whether fuel prices will rise for households and businesses, as gas prices have already skyrocketed due to the war with Iran.

According to the FT, France and Italy want to to agree privately with Iran on the safety of ships in the Strait of Hormuz. And Turkey said that Iran had allowed its ship through The Strait of Hormuz. 

This terminal was a way to avoid the strait of Hormuz.

Remember that Iran has been destroyed.

[viper37]

Exclusive / Israel is running critically low on interceptors, US officials say

Israel informed the US this week that it is running critically low on ballistic missile interceptors as the conflict with Iran rages on, US officials told Semafor.
Israel had reportedly entered the current war already low on interceptors that were fired during last summer's conflict with Iran. Israel's long-range defense system has strained under Iran's attacks; CNN reported that Iran was adding cluster munitions to its missiles, which may exacerbate the depletion of the stock.
The US has been aware of Israel's low capacity for months, one US official said: "It's something we expected and anticipated."
This official emphasized to Semafor that the US is not running similarly low on interceptors of its own. That comment comes amid broader concerns about interceptor depletion from a longer military engagement in Iran leaving the US in a poor position.
It's also unclear whether the US might seek to sell or share any of its own interceptors with Israel, which would pose its own strain on domestic supplies. The US has included missile defense assets in past provisions of military aid to Israel.



"We have all that we need to protect our bases and our personnel in the region and our interests," the US official said, adding that Israel is "coming up with solutions to address" their shortage.
Israel has other ways to defend against Iranian missiles during the war, including via fighter jets, but the interceptors are among the most effective defensive weapons against long-range fire. Its Iron Dome missile defense system is designed to repel more short-range fire.
President Donald Trump said earlier this month that the US has a "virtually unlimited" munitions stockpile, although analysts have long said US stockpiles are lower than the military would like.



Last June, the US fired over 150 THAAD interceptors during the 12-day war with Iran, the Center for Strategic and International Studies found — believed to be around a quarter of US inventory at the time. The US is also believed to have used around $2.4 billion worth of Patriot interceptors in the first five days of this war, according to some reports.
In January, the Pentagon made moves to begin substantially increasing its production of the THAAD missile defense system. The US official said that the administration has plenty of THAADs and fighter jets, as well as mid-level interceptors.
Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell told Semafor in a statement that the department "has everything it needs to execute any mission at the time and place of" Trump's choosing.



The White House and the Israel Defense Forces did not immediately respond to requests for comment from Semafor.


Know More
The State Department last week announced a sale of 12,000 "BLU-110A/B general purpose, 1,000-pound bomb bodies" to Israel. Congressional approval for the sale will not be required; the Trump administration bypassed it by citing the "emergency" that currently exists as the US and Israel fight Iran.
Trump has said that the war could end "soon" and has recently taken to describing it as a "short-term excursion." But Trump, Israel, and Iran are also all signaling that they're willing to fight for as long as it takes.
"It'll be as long as it's necessary," Trump said on Friday evening when asked about how long the conflict may continue on. "They've been decimated. The country's in bad shape. The whole thing is collapsing."
The Iranian regime's foreign policy adviser told CNN this week that the country sees no option for diplomacy right now and maintained that it is ready for a long fight. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters on Friday that Iran's "entire ballistic missile production capacity" has been "functionally defeated."

More winning.

So, what happens when Israel runs out of interceptor?  They nuke Iran only or everyone around to go in a blaze of glory?

[Valmy]

Never in the field of human conflict have so many been fucked by so few to this extent.

[HVC]

Its  what happens when two world leaders are desperately trying to stay out of jail and their electorates are fine with it.

[Tonitrus]

We don't need people that join Wars after we've already won!"

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"Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others, that are affected by this artificial constraint, will send Ships to the area so that the Hormuz Strait will no longer be a threat by a Nation that has been totally decapitated.

[Sophie Scholl]

So... one day we'll hopefully have Pete Hague-seth, right? 

"We will keep pressing. We will keep pushing, keep advancing, no quarter, no mercy for our enemies," he said at a Pentagon news briefing.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/hegseth-no-quarter-war-crime_n_69b44e2fe4b0676e64bf4b04?origin=home-latest-news-unit

[Jacob]

Feels like they should declare war

[jimmy olsen]

Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut.

https://x.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/2032803960239595562

It's crystal clear now that Trump has lost control of this war. He badly misjudged Iran's ability to retaliate. The region is on fire.1/ I'm going to explain to you in this🧵what I've learned - in part from closed door briefings - about the four biggest current crises.

2/ CRISIS ONE: Trump believed Iran would not close the Strait of Hormuz. He was wrong. And now oil prices are spiking. If the Strait stays closed, a global recession will result. It actually may already be too late. Gas prices are the first to spike, but food prices are next.

3/ Right now, Trump has no plan to reopen the Strait. And a plan may not exist. The assets Iran uses to harass and attack tankers - thousands of small drones, speed boats and mines - cannot be eliminated. They are too numerous, too spread out and hidden.

4/ What about naval escorts for tankers? This is a possibility, but it's harder than you think. First, it would require our entire navy. 100 tankers need escorting each day. Second, if we can't destroy the mines and drones, our ships are at risk too.

5/ CRISIS TWO: We can destroy Iran's missiles but not all their drones, and war today is drone war. Iran can hit oil sites in the region indefinitely because they posses so many cheap, weaponized drones. And they are. They blew up a critical Oman oil depot two days ago.

6/ If Trump paid any attention to the Ukraine War he would have noticed how warfare has changed. But he didn't. And he blundered. Worse, the Gulf states are running out of interceptors to stop Iranian missiles and drones - meaning that soon more oil sites will be vulnerable.

7/ CRISIS THREE: A broader, regional war is breaking out as Iranian proxies in Lebanon hit Israel and those in Iraq target the U.S.. Israel is now threatening a massive ground invasion of Lebanon, which could become its own new crisis.

8/ Other potential flash points lurk. So far, the Houthis in Yemen have been relatively quiet. Probably not for long. They can project power into the Red Sea. For Syria, this is the worst time for Trump to strike Iran. Syria could explode again.

9/ CRISIS FOUR: Trump has no endgame. Iran and its proxies can create chaos indefinitely. So what's next? A ground invasion? This would be Armageddon. Thousands of dead Americans. Declare false victory? Then the new Iranian hardliners in charge just rebuild what we destroyed.

10/ All of this was totally foreseeable. Frankly, it's why previous presidents weren't so stupid to start a war like this. Trump has lost control of the war. His best course now is to cut his losses and end it. That's the only way to prevent an even bigger disaster.